Monthly Archives: November 2011

A Name for Those Thinking About Future NBA Drafts

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Now that the lockout appears to be over, we can now stop discussing labor issues (we won’t, but we could) and start talking about player performance.  Of course, we won’t have any new NBA performances until Christmas (assuming this deal holds up).

Although the NBA believes its new deal is going to enhance balance in the league, and supposedly making those subsequent performances more compelling for everyone, it is still going to be the case that many fans will spend much of the season thinking about the 2012 draft (and for those with really bad teams to follow, the drafts in 2013 and 2014).

And with that in mind, let me toss out a name you may not have heard of yet.  Last night, Mike Moser grabbed 18 rebounds from North Carolina (the team that was supposed to be the best team in college basketball).  And this performance was not inconsistent with what Moser has done this year.  In 7 games this years, Moser has grabbed 96 rebounds, including 13 rebounds in 30 minutes against USC and 11 rebounds in 23 minutes against Nevada.  It appears – and again, it is still early – that this UNLV forward has the ability to rebound.

For those looking at the 2012 draft (or maybe the draft in 2013 or 2014), Moser – who doesn’t appear to be on the draft radar yet (I don’t see him on the major NBA draft websites yet) – might be a player to think about.  This is because – as noted in Stumbling on Wins – rebounding is one factor that does seem to translate from college to the pros.  So if Moser can grab 18 rebounds against North Carolina, maybe he can grab rebounds for an NBA team in the future.

One should not that Moser is only a sophomore.  And since he transferred to UNLV from UCLA, he has only played 280 minutes of college basketball.  So this whole post is probably very premature.  But then again, we still have a month to go before the NBA season gets started, and I wanted to take the opportunity to show that I could discuss something else besides the lockout.

- DJ

Podcast: You say Monopoly, I say Monopsony

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Where to find us:

You can play our podcast with the player above. If you don’t want to wait to hear a new podcast though you can subscribe to our RSS Feed: http://www.bigcontact.com/wagesofwins/rssaudio

Podcasters

Companion Reading
The podcasters referenced the articles linked below during the discussion.

Enjoy! As we mentioned we’re burning out on the lockout. If you can think of a fun topic you’d like to hear two or more stats geeks talk about let us know and we’ll see what we can do.
-Mosi and Dre

Happy Turkey Day

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You have Devin to thank for today’s post. In discussing if we should do a post on a day that may or may not be a holiday (Black Friday, and a day off for many) and the difference between Thanksgiving in the US and Canada (which reverted to an argument over Fahrenheit vs. Celsius) Devin came up with today’s title and topic.

In honor of Thanksgiving aka Turkey Day yesterday we decided to make today Turkey Day in honor of NBA players that have hailed from Turkey. So with that here’s a run down of all Turkish natives that have played in the NBA.



Considering the Turkish migration in the NBA didn’t start until 1998 they haven’t done too bad for themselves. Turkoglu and Okur may have been overrated at times in their careers but it’s important to remember being above average in the NBA isn’t an easy task.

Of course if we’re looking at Turkey as a international exchange program for the NBA then Turkey has definitely come out ahead.

With that hope you had a Happy Turkey day and see you next week.

-Dre

 

Major League sports are not as big as sports fans like to think

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Sports are supposed to be a great help to the economy. That’s the story we’re told when cities add taxes to build stadiums and arenas. The problem, though, is that when we look over the numbers, we don’t see many people that sports actually help.

The Ideal Scenario isn’t that Ideal

The problem with Sports as a business is that most days your stadium or arena will be empty (at least with respect to the sport that motivated the construction of the building). Let’s take a look at a city that has managed to do it right. The Staples Centers in Los Angeles is an arena that most cities should strive for. But here’s what the numbers say.

  • The Staples Center host three major sports teams (The Lakers and Clippers for basketball and the Kings for the NHL)
  • If the Kings, Clippers and Lakers all played the maximum number of playoff games there would be a major sporting event in the Staples Center 166 days out of the year.
  • If the Kings, Clippers and Lakers all sold out every game they would have filled approximately 3.5 million seats
  • The Los Angeles area has over 12 million people. That means only around 25% of the population could go to a sports game a year, and that’s only if no one attended multiple games.
In an arena with three major teams (the ideal scenario) an arena doesn’t help much. After all, even in the ideal scenario above, the building can only seat a tiny portion of the population.   And this building is still not hosting a sporting event the majority of the time.  Furthermore, even if somehow the Staples Center could find events for the rest of the year, it would still only increase the number of tickets sold to about 7 million annually.

Numbers for Major Sports in the NBA

Here are some rough estimates for league wide attendance during regular seasons*
  • If every MLB game sold out approximately 121,500,000 seats would be filled
  • If every NBA game sold out approximately 25,000,000 seats would be filled.
  • If every NHL game sold out approximately 25,000,000 seats would be filled.
  • If every NFL game sold out approximately 35,000,000 seats would be filled.
  • Total for all four leagues is about 200,000,000
Here are some rough estimates for league wide attendance in the ideal case for playoffs for each league (7 game series in NHL and NBA and 5 game and 7 game series in MLB)
  • If every MLB playoffs went the distance and sold out approximately 2,000,000 seats would be filled.
  • If every NBA playoffs went the distance and sold out approximately 2,1000,000 seats would be filled
  • If every NHL playoffs went the distance and sold out approximately 2,100,000 seats would be filled.
  • If every NFL playoffs sold out approximately 770,000 seats would be filled.
  • Total for all four leagues is about 7,000,000
Here are some fun comparions
So when it comes down to it every major league sport in the United States would be about two thirds as effective as Netflix if each had maximum popularity. The playoffs all put together amount to one busy day of shopping for Wal-mart in the US. It’s easy to get impressed by large numbers when speaking about the NBA but when put in context they are just not that big.

Summing Up

The numbers I showed above say that sports just can’t seat as many fans as we’d like to think. One other issue with all of the fans listed above is this: they will spend their money else where if sports go away! The research has shown that sports don’t help local economies. Part of the reason is the limited nature of this.  The size of the venues are quite small relative to the local population.

Next, even if local fans can’t see NBA games it doesn’t mean they stop doing anything for entertainment. Maybe they don’t go to the Hooters next to the American Airline arena. That doesn’t mean they don’t go to a different restaurant after doing something else such as going to a movie. The end story is that the NBA doesn’t help as many local fans as we’d like to think and it turns out those local fans are perfectly capable of having fun without the NBA

-Dre
*For NBA and NHL arena capacity I estimated 20,000 per arena. For MLB stadium capacity I estimated 50,000 per stadium. For NFL stadium capacity I estimated 70,000 per stadium.

Dwyane Wade is worth $50 million and other underpaid NBA stars

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Dwyane Wade recently claimed that he’d be worth $50 million if the market was fair in the NBA. Although our first take didn’t have him making the cut, we did agree he was massively underpaid. But Arturo decided to take another crack at it and address an important factor, and that changed things. Dwyane Wade plays on a good team and in a good market, and these two factors mean his value is higher than it would be if he was playing on a bad team in a bad market. Using this new method, I decided to look at the top 20 underpaid players in the NBA in 2011.



Sorting the Underpaid

  • Players on their rookie contract: Seven players including the Rookie of the Year (duh), MVP, scoring leader, and rebounding leader were still on their rookie contracts.
  • Players that can’t be paid what they’re worth: Despite getting massive paydays, there are some players that simply can’t be paid what they’re worth. On this list there are seven such players, including the former MVP and current Defensive Player of the Year.
  • Underrated players: Steve Nash, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, Jason Kidd and Lamar Odom are paid well but are still not paid anywhere close to their full value.
  • Chuck Hayes: Chuck Hayes counts as underrated, but with his pay so abysmally low he gets a category all to himself.

After factoring in how much their wins are worth in their respective markets, these are the players that should be demanding a raise. Of course when basketball resumes, these players will be happy to know that their salaries will decrease and that they will become even more underpaid. At least Dwyane Wade was right about being worth $50 million.
-Dre