Monthly Archives: November 2011

Who were the real Playoff MVPs of 1995?

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With the lockout in full swing our analysts have been antsy. We’re happy to answer fan requests for historical fact checking*. Today’s request comes via a Tweet from Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index:

@NerdNumbers You have your assignment RT @NBAHistory: Announcer Bob Neal: “Horace Grant is the MVP for the Magic in this series thus far.” @NBATV NOW (Orl/Chi, Gm 6, ’95 EC Semis)

The 1995 playoffs were pretty crazy. The Orlando Magic took down the Bulls despite Michael Jordan returning. The Houston Rockets shocked the world and won it all despite being a lowly sixth seed. Two surprising facts came from these two series.

Horace Grant was the MVP of the Magic-Bulls Series

Don't look back, they might be gaining!

In a series with Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal, it’s surprising to realize the best player on the court was indeed Horace Grant. Here was the breakdown in terms of Wins:

  1. Horace Grant (Orlando Magic) 251 Minutes, 0.293 WP48, 1.53 Wins Produced
  2. Shaquille O’Neal (Orlando Magic) 238 Minutes, 0.265 WP48, 1.31 Wins Produced
  3. Scottie Pippen (Chicago Bulls) 248 Minutes, 0.221 Wp48, 1.14 Wins Produced
  4. Michael Jordan (Chicago Bulls) 254 Minutes, 0.192 Wp48, 1.02 Wins Produced
  5. Anfernee Hardaway (Orlando Magic) 246 Minutes, 0.133 WP48, 0.68 Wins Produced

Bob Neal was speaking the truth. Horace Grant was better (just barely) than Shaq, and together Shaq and Horace rant circles around Scottie and Michael. Of course Horace and Shaq’s great play may have come from playing a team lacking bigs. Against the Rockets they crumbled when faced with Hakeem’s Finals MVP performance. . . or did they? That brings us to surprise fact number two.

Clyde Drexler was the real finals MVP in 1995

Well at least they both got a trophy.

We can maybe give Hakeem some credit for slowing down Shaq in the finals. That said, Clyde’s performance was inspired. Here’s how the finals went down:

  1. Clyde Drexler (Houston Rockets) 162 Minutes, 0.342 WP48 1.15 Wins Produced
  2. Robert Horry (Houston Rockets) 187 Minutes, 0.213 WP48, 0.83 Wins Produced
  3. Mario Elie (Houston Rockets) 161 Minutes, 0.199 WP48, 0.69 Wins Produced
  4. Shaquille O’Neal (Orlando Magic) 180 Minutes, 0.176 WP48, 0.66 Wins Produced
  5. Anfernee Hardaway (Orlando Magic) 172 Minutes, 0.179 WP48, 0.64 Wins Produced
  6. Nick Anderson (Orlando Magic) 161 Minutes, 0.160 WP48, 0.54 Wins Produced
  7. Hakeem Olajuwon (Houston Rockets) 179 Minutes, 0.122 WP48, 0.46 Wins Produced
  8. Horace Grant (Orlando Magic) 168 Minutes, 0.084 WP48, 0.30 Wins Produced

Sadly Horace Grant’s greatness disapeared in the finals. But the story wasn’t Hakeem outplaying the bigs of Orlando; the real story was how Clyde Drexler and Robert Horry destroyed the Magic from the wings.

With no NBA in front of us for the foreseeable future, it is fun to go back to the past. Let us know if you have any weird stories you want us to look into and — provided we have time and there are no developments with the lockout — maybe we’ll look into it.

-Dre

* Don’t worry Mark, I haven’t forgotten about the Spurs, they’re on deck.

NBA Owners have no hope of solving the NBA’s money problems

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We’ve been reviewing the numbers about the lockout for a while here at the Wages of Wins. The owners insist on acting as if owning an NBA team is a business and not a luxury good or political move to achieve other gains. But when we look at the NBA as a business, we can see the owners are terrible at running it as such. Let’s start with just some simple math:

Profits = Revenue - Costs

Cutting Costs

The owners are claiming their profits are negative and that means that either their revenue is too low or their costs are too high. The owners have decided to focus on costs and there is a serious problem with how they’ve done that. First let’s review some of what we’ve gone over:

So the owners are “losing money” and they are trying to make up for it by cutting costs. The problem is that the costs they are addressing don’t seem to solve the problem. In fact, if trends continue, Arturo speculates that even in the ideal case the owners’ cost cutting solution will land us in the middle of another lockout in 2020…assuming that there will be NBA basketball being played by then.

Increasing Revenue

If cutting costs won’t solve the issue, then surely raising revenues will? Let’s run that one down too:

  • NBA revenue has grown by leaps and bounds
  • From 1999 (last lockout) to 2006 (last CBA), league revenue grew from $1.6 billion to $3.6 billion
  • From 2006 (last CBA) to 2011 (current lockout), league revenue grew from $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion
  • The NBA is overextended in 19 of its 30 markets
  • The top markets are 3-4 times as profitable as the bottom markets in the NBA.

Despite the owners’ best attempts at failure, the NBA appears to be a success. This is in spite of several bad business practices, including hosting a team in a city like Indianapolis, which wouldn’t be profitable even in the best case scenario. It goes without saying that the NBA has opportunities to increase revenue, yet none seem to be under consideration.

Summing Up

The owners are locking the NBA players out because their profits are too low (their claim is that they are taking a loss). Using the most simple math, a good business person would either cut the bad costs or raise revenue. Instead of pursuing these two options, the owners are trying to cut their stable costs. Instead of moving teams to better markets, the NBA wants to talk about contraction or revenue sharing. So despite the hours upon hours of talk and the back and forth, the owners haven’t even addressed the issues that led them to shut the league down. As a matter of fact, the odds of there being a season this year are looking quite low. I’ll end with a quote by the late Albert Einstein:

The thinking it took to get us into this mess is not the same thinking that is going to get us out of it.

Unfortunately for the fans and the players, NBA owners seem to be stuck in their thinking with no end in sight.

-Dre

More on the “NCAA Cartel”

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Remember him?

Dave Berri recently offered a post on why he thinks college athletes should be paid.

Today, in an odd coincidence, I stumbled upon one of the most complete articles I have ever read on the subject. The Shame of College Sports, written by Taylor Branch, covers the majority of the problems with the NCAA all in one article, including:

  • the early history of the NCAA
  • the myth of amateurism
  • why “student athletes” should be paid
  • scholarship issues
  • academic issues
  • ridiculous examples of  college “scandals”, including the case of A. J. Green
  • court cases against the NCAA, including the Ed O’Bannon case

And when I say ‘complete’, I mean it. This article is over 14 000 words — almost 29 single-spaced pages. It’ll take you a while to get through this baby, but it’s well worth it if you are interested in the NCAA, sports, or human rights issues.

My favourite quote from the piece can be found near the top. In 2001, when Sonny Vaccaro was asked why universities should be an advertising medium for the shoe industry, he replied:

“They shouldn’t, sir. You sold your souls, and you’re going to continue selling them. You can be very moral and righteous in asking me that question, sir, but there’s not one of you in this room that’s going to turn down any of our money. You’re going to take it. I can only offer it.”

Taylor Branch was actually against paying student athletes before he wrote the article, and in the course of writing the article he changed his mind. Because once you know enough, there is no way you can be against a radical restructuring of the entire NCAA system.

- Devin

A Free Market for College Athletes

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My latest for the Huffington Post — What Sports Illustrated Didn’t Tell You About Paying College Athletes – is obviously a response to a recent article from Sports Illustrated.   In the article I advocate a free market for college athletes.

Last August, Robert McCormick and Robert Tollison offered another alternative. In Subversion of the Academy by the NCAA, these two economists noted that the problem in college sports is that the coaches and administrators participate in a free (although quite distorted) market while the labor is treated as amateurs.  If one doesn’t like letting the players participate in a free market, why not have everyone go back to being amateurs?  In other words, let’s return college sports to what it was before people realized money could be made.

Whether one wishes to see a completely free market for everyone or everyone be treated like the players (i.e. everyone is an amateur), it does seem clear that having one institution for the players and another for the coaches seems to be a big part of the problem.  And until that disconnect is resolved, so-called “scandels” will continue to be a part of college sports.

- DJ

The Best Nuggets Team of All Time

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I decided to put together my all-time Denver Nuggets dream team. I picked the best Nuggets based on their top three complete seasons with the team (very similar to what James did for the top 25 players in their prime) and chose the best available player at each position. Enjoy!

Starting PG – Fat Lever

  • Best Seasons – 1987, 1988 and 1990
  • Playing Time – 8982 Minutes
  • Wins Produced – 71.1
  • WP48 – 0.381
Back in the 1980s the Nuggets were a perrenial playoff team and almost a contender. Fat Lever was a huge part of that and in fact his stint with the Nuggets is one of the greatest of all time. He ended his time with the Nuggets with a great season before leaving and declining in Dallas.
Starting SG – T.R. Dunn
  • Best Seasons – 1982, 1983, 1984
  • Playing Time – 7864 Minutes
  • Wins Produced – 41.3
  • WP48 – 0.252
Another member of the late great 1980s Nuggets makes the list. Sadly his prime just missed Fat Lever’s time in the spotlight. He is a misleading player for the two guard spot. While he was an efficient shooter during his peak years, his real skill came from the fact that he pulled down almost 8.0 boards a game!
Starting SF – Alex English
  • Starting SF – Alex English
  • Best Seasons – 1981, 1982, 1983
  • Playing Time – 9096 Minutes Played
  • Wins Produced – 34.2
  • WP48 – 0.180
No surprise here. Alex English was another great member from the run and gun Nuggets of the 80s and helped the Nuggets get as close as they would ever come to a finals. Alex English is remembered next to Melo as one of the greatest scoring threats the Nuggets ever had. Unlike Melo it was actually true with English.
Starting PF – Marcus Camby
  • Best Seasons - 2004, 2007, 2008
  • Playing Time – 7291 Minutes
  • Wins Produced – 49.6
  • Wp48 – 0.327
While his assigned position is C I can’t see why the Nuggets can’t two tower the front court. After all it has worked for getting Houston, San Antonio and Los Angeles to the finals. Marcus Camby is an amazing defensive threat and his numbers from his 2008 season make him a key member of this team.
Starting C – Dikembe Mutombo
  • Best Seasons – 1993,1994,1995
  • Playing Time – 8982
  • Wins Produced – 57.0
  • WP48 – 0.305
Oh what might have been if Dikembe stuck around! He was a monster defensive pressence and a star right from the start of his rookie season. He gave the Nuggets five great years before leaving for greener pastures. Paired next to Marcus Camby the opposing team is guaranteed to never get a rebound and be blocked 20 times a night.
Sixth Man – Andre Miller
  • Best Seasons - 
  • Playing Time – 8630 Minutes
  • Wins Produced – 32.6
  • WP48 – 0.181
Melo is often given the credit for the Nuggets return to the playoffs in 2004. The truth is Miller paired with Camby is the real reason the Nuggets returned to their winning ways. Miller was a great member of the Nuggets and not given his due. He is a great final addition to my all Nuggets team.
This was fun and I may do this for other teams if I get bored as the lockout drags on. Hope you enjoyed it and use the comments if you have votes for specific teams.
-Dre