Rip Hamilton was once a decent player. The Bulls are thinking of acquiring him in an effort to correct their “problems” at the shooting guard. Unfortunately for the Bulls this will likely hurt them in their quest for a title. The truth is Hamilton has never been that great of a player. The Bulls actually already have a very strong team with few weaknesses. Adding Hamilton will only hurt them.
Rip had two skills: shooting and getting a decent number of defensive rebounds for a shooting guard. In recent years Rip’s shooting ability has declined. This is not surprising. He is on the wrong side of 30 and players age like milk, not wine. The defensive rebounds are actually a problem.
In the offseason while other analysts were learning contract rules for the new CBA Dave decided to update the Wins Produced formula. You can read a brief recap here and the full rundown here. An important variation the Wins Produced formula has now adjusted for is the diminishing returns for defensive rebounds. Essentially if a player gets a high percentage of their team’s rebounds they are penalized slightly. This is not good for Hamilton.
If the Bulls acquire Hamilton they will be getting a player that was once a good shooter but no longer is. He doesn’t contribute much else either and even his overvalued defensive rebounds will not be much good to the Bulls.
There’s one final problem with acquiring Rip Hamilton to solve the problems at shooting guard for the Bulls. The truth is the Bulls were fine at shooting guard last season. In fact here’s a brief comparison of Rip Hamilton with the Bulls’ shooting guards from last season
| Player | MP | POS | WP48 | WP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brewer | 1781 | 2.0 | 0.245 | 9.11 |
| Keith Bogans | 1461 | 2.0 | 0.146 | 4.44 |
| Kyle Korver | 1649 | 2.7 | 0.098 | 3.37 |
| Richard Hamilton | 1498 | 2.4 | 0.009 | 0.28 |
The Bulls are actually overloaded with good shooting guards! Rather than persue Rip Hamilton the Bulls should just keep the shooting guards they have. All of them are under contract and significantly better than Hamilton. All Hamilton can do is take minutes from younger, more talented and more deserving players.
The Bulls may be falling into a dangerous trap. Last season they had the best record in the league and went far in the playoffs. Rather than view this as a good thing they are instead viewing their loss in the playoffs as a major problem. By acquiring Hamilton they acquire a seasoned veteran that knows how to win. At least that’s the story. The issue is that Hamilton’s winning came by playing next to talented players. What’s more his winning days are long behind him. It’s a boring strategy but rather than gamble on an overrated scorer the Bulls could instead stand pat, hope for healthy and wait for their opponents to sign terrible players instead.
-Dre
It’s really hard to disagree with this analysis. I don’t think it’s a good move either.
I know things like “team chemistry” don’t get much weight on this blog and I don’t even know the details of what was going in Detroit last year. But I seem to remember Hamilton practically organizing a mutiny against the coach last year. Even if he was justified in being upset, I’m not so sure I’d want that kind of personality in the locker room. There’s certainly no plus side to it.
good piece, but you never addressed why defensive rebounding was a bad thing.
I assume it is because a guard crashing every time slows the bulls already less than average pace, but please confirm/elaborate.
He’s not the answer in Chicago?
You put it very gently – IMHO he’s a question “WTF?” ;-)
Because it’s an all around puzzling move:
- he is on the downside of his career while Bulls have a young team,
- he won’t be cheap [quite the opposite for a veteran with paycheck from other team],
- he isn’t good 3point shooter so his style doesn’t fit that much,
- as you’ve said he won’t be even the best SG on this team.
Outside of “proven veteran presence”, “championship pedigree” or other similar cliches like that I can’t find any possible reason to do it. So why Bulls did? Just because of them?
Even if they felt they need a SG why they have chosen Rip?
Shooter and another offensive option? They couldn’t play Korver more?
All around puzzling.
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bjorn,
Defensive rebounding isn’t a bad thing. It’s just not as important as shooting efficiently. This was true in the “old way” of calculating wins produced, and this is slightly more true in the “new” WP.
It should be noted that Rip was never particularly good by the older WP metrics either — he shot efficiently from 2PT range, but it turns out that lots of SGs and SFs can do this, so if you are inefficient from 3PT range, you’re not really bringing much to the table.
I agree that Rip is obviously not a cure-all panacea type player. But it is a mistake to look at his numbers from last year too much: he was in the midst of a revolt against the coach on a team going nowhere– in other words, you have to suspect his performance was lower than it otherwise would have been. This is both because his own effort was lower, and that of his teammates (effort being especially important for a guy like Rip, who gets his offense by running off screens and other set plays made for him that break down if teammates don’t try them or don’t put enough effort into them). Again, not saying he is a brilliant player, but I think his WP will end up looking much better than what last year’s numbers would indicate.
This is pretty horrendous stat cherry picking.
PER 2010-01
Rip – 15.8
Brewer – 13.8
Korver – 13.0
Bogans – 9.0
Anyone who actually watched the Bulls would be able to tell you that these stats reflect reality, and not the ones you are using.
Not to mention, the decline in Rip’s per game stats are entirely due to his fewer minutes played, which in turn had everything to do with his coach being a total jag and making him ride the bench. Per 36, his points, rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, and true shooting percentage are all in line with his career numbers (due to taking more threes and hitting over 38% of them, which is great for a team like the Bulls that needs perimeter threats to open up space for Rose to slash inside).
I also think the “Rip played with good players” line goes both ways. Rip has played with Charlie Villanueva the last 3 years, who sucks hard, and split minutes with Stuckey and Gordon, who have similar skill sets with dissimilar team attitudes and don’t mesh well with his game. The Bulls *are* an excellent team, like the mid-2000s Pistons, and if Hamilton can play a similar third (or even fourth) option role behind Rose, Boozer and Deng, they are going to be unstoppable. I think its a shrewd pickup.
David,
PER is a pretty flawed metric and pretty much rewards high volume shooters regardless of their efficiency. As for the eye test, well the Bulls did very well last season. If the Bulls fans are convinced Rip Hamilton on a terrible team was better than their players on the best regular season record team then I don’t know what to say.
The point on the great players was his “championship pedigree”. When people say he’s a winner it wasn’t him winning it was Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace pulling the weight. I mean Adam Morrison and Darko Millicic have both also been on championship teams and I don’t see many teams asking for their championship mentality in the locker room.
The last point is the mid 2000 Rip Hamilton (who was decent not great but decent) was much younger. He can’t play a similar role! He’s older and his game has declined. The Bulls should pass and play the players they have.
Your first two paragraphs contradict each other. If the Bulls have the best record, that implies their shooting guards are fine. If the Pistons win a championship, that implies that everyone other than the shooting guard is pulling the weight. What? I guarantee you that exactly *zero* teams are asking for Keith Bogans’ “best record in basketball” mentality in the locker room. I don’t think team performance really tells you that much in either direction, though if it were, if anything, I think the Pistons’ disastrous player-coach relationship last year and the particularly horrible squad they threw out there would suggest that his quantitative results were artificially deflated.
The point is that Rip Hamilton is not a player in decline. His per minute numbers are virtually identical to his career per minute numbers. Qualitatively, his excellent three point shooting, movement without the ball, and quality defense would be a step up from any of the Bulls’ current 2 guards, each of whom who can perform only one or two of those tasks at a time.
Finally, WP is far from a perfect metric. The way it is calculated systematically hurts players with a good true shooting percentage that get that way through three pointers and free throws (like Rip) instead of high quality two pointers (like a Dwight Howard). While PER is not necessarily the end all, be all, my broader point is that neither is PER. To tell the full story, you need to look behind the numbers. That is especially true when your numbers tell you surprising things like Keith Bogans and Kyle Korver having substantially more value than Rip Hamilton. That might be true, but I think it necessary to dig a little deeper to paint a more complete picture.
That being said, I like the analysis on this blog (even if I disagree)! Can’t wait for the NBA to start back up, man.
*broader point is neither is WP. /eyeroll
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I don’t often disagree with the stuff written here (like why I can’t log on with my wordpress account, I’m not complaining), but sometimes you guys are too black and white with no context. This is one of those cases. Evidence points to a Rip decline, but there are circumstances beyond age that could have contributed even though age happens to be the only one that’s qualifiable.
Will the Bulls be worse? I think that’s hard to quantify without knowing what effect Rip will have on Rose. Maybe Rip looks horrendous when it’s said and done, but that’s because he ends up taking all the bad shots Rose used to take, so now Rose is taking more efficient shots because he has Rip next to him to help him take some of the scoring load resulting in Rose actually backing up his MVP a year later. Rose will no longer be playing with guys that refuse to shoot, so he won’t have to take all the shots. This essentially results in a wash, but there’s a slim chance new circumstances cause Rip to pull a Ray Allen, ya never know.
@David Ogles,
“Qualitatively, his excellent three point shooting, movement without the ball, and quality defense”
1) Career 3p% = 34,7… which is excellent by what measure?
2) I’m shocked that you used defense in FAVOR of Rip considering that he will replace Brewer and/or Bogans…
3) I love argument that player underperformed because he was at odds with his coach… doesn’t it reflect badly on him? “If anything goes wrong or not according to my wishes I will complain and suck”. Great advertisement.
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This is a good pick-up for the bulls although at this point its hard to estimate how much Rip will bring to the table
He is 34 but shooting guards with his physique have been known to play well until their late 30s (reggie + ray)
Last year wasnt a good one for Rip as he + his team / coach were feuding and there was a lot of negative energy surrounding him
I can easily imagine that his surroundings lead to a lack of interest and decrease in his statistics…. This year he will be very enthusiastic and eager to play for a good team and will work hard to be a contributing member.
The question is… how much can he provide?
In my opinion he is the starting guard with Brewer getting significant back-up minutes… Korver and Bogans should both be good for 3-10 mins a game
Leo,
The issue is Rip has never been a good player. In his prime he wasn’t a better option than any of the SGs the Bulls currently have. The only think he can do is to take minutes from better players.
Also players don’t peak in their mid thirties. In short I can’t guarantee Hamilton’s production next year will be awful but I am fairly certain it has no hope of being his best year, which means he won’t be better than the alternatives for the Bulls.
Really the Bulls just need to keep their players healthy. A line up of Rose, Brewer, Deng, Boozer and Noah is really potent.
“The issue is Rip has never been a good player. In his prime he wasn’t a better option than any of the SGs the Bulls currently have. The only think he can do is to take minutes from better players.”
THREE time NBA all-star…was never a good player? I keep re-reading your statement to make sure that I’m comprehending what it is you are saying. I believe you are saying that Keith Bogans is now better than Rip Hamilton ever was. Am I correct in that assumption? For sake of speed I’ll go ahead as if I am.
Hamilton has more playoff points in Detroit than….Isiah Thomas. <— you have heard of that person? Again I'm just going to assume that you have. Rip is a CAREER 20 ppg playoff performer btw. (Bogans fyi has a career playoff average of
slightly under 5 points per game)
Your system is wildly inaccurate. This is all the proof that you need. Rip Hamilton is currently much better than Keith Bogans…and was so much better still at one point it's SHOCKING to read someone that believes differently.
In 4 days Keith Bogans will be a FA. Let us see the demand for his services.
I'm guessing he's a 1 million dollars to vet minimum player. You must disagree.
Let's let the market decide how much a 5 point per game sg is worth.
I don’t think Rip is the end all answer for the Bulls. In fact, he may start, but won’t get a majority of the #2 minutes.
But it does give the Bulls another offensive answer besides give it to Rose and spread out. Come playoff time Rip is going to show his value when the game slows down and offensive execution is at a premium.
Hard for stats to show that, but that’s just playoff basketball.
Adam,
I’ll see if I can dig up the link but I’ll give you another reason to hate this site – we don’t think Joe Dumars or Isiah Thomas were that good when the Pistons were winning titles! In both situations some talented underrated defensive bigs (Rodman and Lambier and later Ben Wallace) were pulling the weight. All-star games don’t impress me that much as stats for greatness. The fans and coaches haven’t proven to move they get talent. Yao Ming and Amare have been voted on injured and last season the coaches voted on Joe Johnson.
Anyway I would love to see some counter proof but points per game aren’t really a good measure.
So points per game aren’t a good indicator of a shooting guards’ worth? Because RIP scores more than three times as many point per game…just double checking that points are no longer a measuring stick. Are assists worth anything when evaluating a guard? Because even last season in limited minutes Rip averaged 3 times as many assists as Bogans per game. Rebounds at all important? Rip has almost twice as many of those last season per game compared to Bogans. How about shooting %? Rip last season was also hitting his shots at a better rate. FTs? Rip is better %-wise there too. THe “PER” measuring stick has RIP last season as a 15.83 and Bogans as a 9.02…but THAT formula (and not this wp one) is flawed….correct?
I watched Bogans play some 90 odd games last season…the eye test tells me that he is the worst starting 2 guard in the NBA. He defends well…but not any better than Brewer. Brewer also brings an offense to the table. Bogans is so woefully bad on offense…and has so little talent for moving without the ball…it’s a wonder he even averaged 4.4 points per game. He MUST’VE had like one 30 point night or something and then a gaggle of 0 or 2 point nights. I checked: There were 13 games in the regular season where Bogans played…yet scored nothing. I was wrong about the 30 point per game anomaly though. He hit the teens a few times…but 17 was his best output all season.
BTW in April RIP dropped 30 points on Bogans/Brewer…but scoring is a non-issue…right? (He dropped 27 on the Heat last year in late March)
Besides your wp formula…give a reasonable argument that could possibly see Bogans as a better sg for the Bulls than is RIP.
Adam,
So much anger. I’d be mad too of course if Hamilton was coming to my team. Alright comparing Bogans to Rip to explain why Bogans is better:
http://www.thenbageek.com/players/compare?utf8=%E2%9C%93&player_ids=79%2C31
Alright so what did Bogans do better than Hamilton? He was much better at rebounding and minimizing turnovers. He was also a little better in regards to blocks. Hamilton was better at assists, personal fouls and points per game.
Ok now here’s the rub
Keith Bogans shot much more efficiently than Hamilton. Bogan’s TS% was 55.9%, which is a mark Hamilton has never hit. Hamilton’s TS was only at 52%. So sure he shot a lot but that wasn’t actually helping his team that much. As it’s been 3 years since Hamilton has shot well at all why would I want him on my team? The Bulls have Rose, Deng, Korver and Boozer, all of whom can shot very well. Why would they want to share the ball with Hamilton? Brewer is a good defender and you say Bogans is too. Why would you want Hamilton in instead.
Your eye test means very little to me unfortunately. As for PER it rewards high volume shooters even if they aren’t efficient, which is what Hamilton is.
Angry? About the Bulls? The 62 win Bulls? The team with the youngest MVP ever? We are talking about a minor upgrade to a 62 win team. But an upgrade is clearly is.
Bogans will sign for a team between 1 million per and vet minimum is my prediction. He is truly, truly horrible on offense. You would need to watch him play to realize that. But some math model that you or your superior will tweak next year to be “even more accurate” is what I’d guess you base your opinions upon.
If Bogans truly is better than Rip…a GM should be willing to pay him more than RIP. Let’s let $$$ see who has the value of said player more correct. (remember I have him as a vet minimum to $1 million a year player for a short contract…you apparently have him as a $7 million per for a 4 or 5 year contract) Your model indicates that Bogans is worth MUCH more than that. Money is what talks. Easy for two people on the internet to give opinions…let’s see someone part with actual money for the services of Bogans.
Watch more basketball.
Well it was only 1 pre-season meaningless game
but Rip and chicago looked pretty darn good together
Leo,
Rip shot 50% from the field with no free throws. Not much to write home about there. I was initially impressed by his uncharacteristically high assists of 6 until I say he had 2 turnovers and 4 fouls. So not a terrible game but not anything I’d be happy with especially as it was against a gutted Pacers.
(I didn’t forget this thread) Ball movement. The ball movement with RIP was spectacular compared to the Keith Bogans era. Yes it’s one meaningless preseason game…but still. We actually looked like the team we SHOULD be. FAST.
Still waiting on ANY team in the league to sign Bogans btw. We waived Pargo on the same day as Bogans…Pargo found a home a few days ago…
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