Why hasn’t anyone signed Kris Humphries?

The numbers in the post are using the new Wins Produced. You can find all of the Wins Produced numbers back to 2000 here!

With forwards like Carl Landry, Glen Davis, David West and Jeff Green getting big contracts a big question is why hasn’t anyone signed Kris Humphries?

2010-2011 Performance Comparison
Player Age New Salary/Yr MP WP48 WP
 Kris Humphries  26  ?? 2061 0.254 10.92
 David West  31 $10 million 2451 0.116 5.92
 Carl Landry  28 $9 million 1996 0.043 1.79
 Jeff Green  25 $9 million 2427 0.019 0.97
 Glen Davis 26 $6.5 million 2298 -0.012 -0.60

If we compare Humphries to some of the other free agents bigs that have been snatched up we see that Humphries wasn’t just more productive than these players. He was more producitve than all of them put together! David West was the only other above average forward in the bunch, and even West was only barely above average. Unlike West, though, Humphries is much younger and more productive. When it comes to Landry, Green and Davis though the only explanation I have is that owners weren’t watching last season. Of course, that might explain the lockout.

Was Humphries just lucky last season?

Kris Humphries’ career
Season Team(s) Age MP WP48 WP
 2010-2011 New Jersey 25 2061 0.254 10.92
 2009-2010 Dallas-New Jersey 24 1221 0.097 2.46
 2008-2009 Toronto 23 265 0.118 0.65
 2007-2008 Toronto 22 925 0.102 1.97
 2006-2007 Toronto 21 670 0.114 1.59
 2005-2006 Utah 20 621 -0.016 -0.21
 2005-2006 Utah 19 873 -0.047 -0.85

The story is that a young Kris Humphries was not  a good player in Utah and was shipped off to Toronto. Here he was actually a productive (average) power forward that was played limited minutes behind more questionable choices. He was also average in Dallas and New Jersey in 2010. Finally last season he was given real minutes and he had a breakout season.

While it is true that last season was an outlier compared to the rest of his career, there are things to keep in mind when it comes to Humphries

  • Humphries will be 26 this season. This is the year players are in their prime.
  • Humphries has been a productive big for the last 5 seasons.
  • The lack of demand for Humphries implies he will be at a discounted rate.

Even if last season was an anomaly, Kris Humphries has traditionally put up numbers on par with the “top” of the power forward market (i.e. David West). Unlike West, Humphries is young and clearly has a huge upside (in contrast, the teams that are signing players like Davis and Landry are not likely to see much benefit from these moves).  And the team that ultimately signs Humphries is likely to see more than a few wins and only have to spend relatively few dollars.

-Dre

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