The 2011-2012 NBA Wins Produced Cheat Sheet

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I was born not knowing and have had only a little time to change that here and there.

Richard Feynman, Letter to Armando Garcia J, December 11, 1985

The New Kings

At the end of last season, I was arrogant. I was at the top of my game. I felt I had an answer or a model for every possible scenario the NBA could throw at me.

Then everything changed.

First, we didn’t know if we would have a season.Then we didn’t know where Chris Paul and Dwight Howard would end up. We still don’t know who’s going to be playing where exactly. Never mind the fact that the schedule for the season is so strange that Vegas refused to post over/unders for wins for the season.

But I wasn’t worried, All I had to do was adapt all my existing models slightly to account for the variation right?

Yeah, about that…

One of the projects that we had been working on is on improving the Wins Produced model . The Lockout gave us a great opportunity to do so and we did. This is a very good thing.

Except that it means that the world changed. Up is not quite down but it’s not exactly up anymore. The value and contribution of each player has changed and it’s going to take a while to adjust to the new reality.

It’s easy for anyone to be confused.

Luckily, I’m here to help you with that and I’ve been in the lab working on the problem. To start, I decided to come up with a nice little cheat sheet for the New Wins Produced model. It features every veteran currently on an active roster and it’s sorted by team and by the players Wins Produced for the 2010-2011 season. It has basic information for each player, totals for the last five years, each players average year and the numbers for the 2010-11 season.

Hopefully, that will help everyone involved.

-Arturo

4 thoughts on “The 2011-2012 NBA Wins Produced Cheat Sheet”

  1. Finally, I got my name back. Since the change to the site, I haven’t been able to post under the name I’ve been using (until I realized I could change my nickname with a google account).

    Anyways, Arturo, I don’t know if this was answered in a podcast, and I don’t know if someone answered my question and I missed it. My question is – What is the year to year correlation of the new wins produced? I believe the old one had a correlation of .8. What about the new one?

  2. How are you going to address this season given the significant differences in schedules?

    Only 3 teams out of conference doubled. Then 3 inter-conference games means 2 home and 1 away, but surely some teams are going to be much worse off than others (play playoff teams twice away, for instance).

    Will there be a SOS and home court factor involved?

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