I was born not knowing and have had only a little time to change that here and there.
Richard Feynman, Letter to Armando Garcia J, December 11, 1985
At the end of last season, I was arrogant. I was at the top of my game. I felt I had an answer or a model for every possible scenario the NBA could throw at me.
Then everything changed.
First, we didn’t know if we would have a season.Then we didn’t know where Chris Paul and Dwight Howard would end up. We still don’t know who’s going to be playing where exactly. Never mind the fact that the schedule for the season is so strange that Vegas refused to post over/unders for wins for the season.
But I wasn’t worried, All I had to do was adapt all my existing models slightly to account for the variation right?
Yeah, about that…
Except that it means that the world changed. Up is not quite down but it’s not exactly up anymore. The value and contribution of each player has changed and it’s going to take a while to adjust to the new reality.
It’s easy for anyone to be confused.
Luckily, I’m here to help you with that and I’ve been in the lab working on the problem. To start, I decided to come up with a nice little cheat sheet for the New Wins Produced model. It features every veteran currently on an active roster and it’s sorted by team and by the players Wins Produced for the 2010-2011 season. It has basic information for each player, totals for the last five years, each players average year and the numbers for the 2010-11 season.
Hopefully, that will help everyone involved.