The NBA does what’s best for the Lakers but not best for the league

The news that absolutely consumed my twitter feed today was the news that Chris Paul was going to be traded to Los Angeles for Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Apparently the NBA owners did not think this was a good idea, because rumours have it that the decision was made to veto such a deal (the NBA owns the Hornets). Wages of Wins analyst Devin Dignam made the point that, instead of helping out the other NBA owners, vetoing the trade would actually help the Lakers.

The Lakers dodge a bullet

Player Age Minutes WP48 Wins Produced
Chris Paul 25 2865 0.358 21.4
Pau Gasol 30 3037 0.258 16.3
Lamar Odom 31 2639 0.260 14.3

While Chris Paul is undoubtedly the best player involved, this trade has some problems with it. Gasol and Odom were responsible for 30 of the Laker’s wins last season, so despite Paul’s individual greatness, the proposed trade would still leave LA at a deficit. A bigger problem is that Pau and Odom are great bigs. These players are rare in the NBA. Letting go of both of these players for Chris Paul means that the Lakers would have to replace their bigs.

While it’s possible the Lakers might be able to make more moves to get some replacement bigs, the simple fact is they are trading two great players for one great player. Sure he’s younger and more talented, but the trade actually harms the Lakers. As Chris Paul’s contract expires in a year, a better idea might be to amnesty Kobe, sign Paul and enjoy several years of Paul, Gasol and Odom.

The league shoots itself in the foot

The move was just as confusing from the NBA’s perspective. The NBA has been worried about placating small market teams. Ironically, in this case, placating the small market owners actually hurts small market teams! If the trade had gone through, the Lakers would have ended up winning fewer games, and that would have given the other teams in the league a better chance of winning a championship. If the other owners wanted to screw over the Lakers, the best thing to do would have been to let the Lakers do it to themselves.

But there are more confusing aspects to this blocked trade. The lockout was allegedly a result of losing money. If the NBA wants to make more money, one of the best ways is to get a star in a big market. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson are credited with revitalizing the league in the 80s. Putting two stars in two big markets helped revitalize the league? Shocking! Some of the NBA’s best years were with Michael Jordan. Guess what that was? Are we really convinced that having Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett (sorry E.J and Patrick!) in small markets during the 2000s was good for the league? Getting Chris Paul in LA would’ve been great for the NBA.

And even if we buy the competitive balance argument, the NBA blocking this move is bad. If every team wants a chance at being a competitor, then every team needs chances to get players. If player movement is restricted, then so are the odds that any given team can compete. The NBA owners are all upset they didn’t get Chris Paul. They would rather have him in New Orleans — which gives them a chance to trade or sign for him — than in Los Angeles, where he’ll flourish. This kind of thinking doesn’t help competitive balance, it doesn’t help the players, and it doesn’t help the fans. In fact, all it does is prove that the owners have no idea what they’re doing. I guess it’s a good thing they’re not in charge of the league’s major decisions.

-Dre

Dopes about doping #2

The NBA lockout gave me a chance to write about non-NBA topics that I feel strongly about. The other day I wrote the overview for my series on doping; today’s post is the second in the series and covers the common arguments in favour of a ban on PEDs. Next time will cover arguments against the ban.

Natural Science

The argument that is most easily dismissed is the idea that PEDs should be banned because they are “unnatural”. Such an argument should not be taken seriously. Today’s athletes use a lot of equipment that is highly “unnatural”: extremely light shoes, advanced speed skates, lighter rackets with larger sweet spots, etc. On top of that, athletes also undergo several “unnatural” medical procedures, from eye surgeries that improve vision to knee surgeries that repair torn ligaments. Then there are the advances in nutrition (vitamins and diet), advances in medicine (antibiotics and vaccines), advances in transportation (planes, trains, and cars), and advances in training (exercise science, high-altitude training). As a matter of fact – it’s hard to imagine today – training of any kind was frowned upon in the early days of the modern Olympics. To train for competition was considered “ungentlemanly” — because remember, the early Olympics were only open to rich white males (this aversion to training was also tied to quaint notions of amateurism, which is another story altogether).

In 1904, Tug of war was an event!

It is not philosophically consistent to ban some of these “unnatural” elements while permitting others. PEDs (or technologically advanced swimsuits, for that matter) should not be banned simply because they are recent developments that weren’t available to previous generations of competitors.

Bumpy terrain

The ‘equal playing field’ argument is a little more sophisticated than the ‘unnatural’ argument, but just as unconvincing. Athletes come from a variety of training environments; some athletes have the luck of growing up in a wealthy country, while others grow up in much poorer countries. Some athletes have access to the best coaches in the world, while others don’t get any coaching. Some athletes have access to world-class training facilities, while others don’t have access to any training facilities. As one can see, even before we get to the PED issue, there is no such thing as an “equal playing field”. If the ban on PEDs exists to create an equal playing field, such a mission is doomed from the start, as the playing field is unequal with or without PEDs.

There is no such thing as an even playing field

But the ban on PEDs is even worse than useless in this regard. In fact, a ban exacerbates the ‘unequalness’ of the playing field. This is because – as evidenced by the 1988 Men’s 100m Final – athletes still use PEDs during a ban. With a ban in place, those who use PEDs have an advantage over those who don’t, just as athletes with access to world-class training facilities have an advantage over those who don’t. Under a ban, the only way to remove the advantage gained from using PEDs is to use tests that are 100% effective, which would ensure that no athlete gains a PED advantage. But drug testing will never reach 100% effectiveness. By its very nature, drug testing is always one step behind dopers; tests to detect PEDs are developed in response to the creation of new PEDs and/or new PED-masking drugs. And the closer testing gets to 100% effective (without hitting 100%), the greater the advantage conferred to the dopers who have managed to avoid detection. Fewer undetected dopers means more “clean” athletes, which means that those athletes who remain undetected have an advantage over a larger number of competitors.

% of Doping Athletes % of Clean Athletes Strength of Doping Advantage
100 0 None
99 1 Very Weak
80 20 Weak
50 50 Moderate
20 80 Strong
1 99 Very Strong
0 100 None

In this way, drug testing – which was supposed to remove the advantage of dopers – has actually strengthened the advantage. The law of unintended consequences strikes again!

Prohibition proclamation

The final common argument in favour of a ban on PEDs is the ‘health’ argument. This argument makes the claim that athletes are healthier under a PED ban than they are without one, a claim that is false for two reasons:

  • assuming that PEDs have harmful effects, prohibitions on dangerous substances inevitably lead to worse health outcomes
  • we don’t even know for sure that PEDs have harmful effects when administered properly
Prohibition era police with alcohol paraphernalia

When alcohol was banned in the 1930s, alcohol production and consumption did not magically come to an end; all that happened was that it moved into the black market, which led to a huge increase in crime. Likewise, does prohibiting abortion stop abortions from happening? No. Abortions still happen when they are banned; the only significant difference is that they become more dangerous to obtain. How about the War on Drugs?Every indication shows that the prohibition of illicit drugs has actually made things worse. For the umpteenth time: prohibition does not work! Prohibition simply causes the dangerous behaviour to move into the black market, which is far less safe than regulation. Removing the PED ban would mean that athletes could have their substances and procedures administered and supervised by doctors and other health professionals. Out in the open, PEDs would also be manufactured safely, meaning that they wouldn’t be laced with undesirable chemicals, as they are currently.

And this brings us to the second strike against the health argument: we don’t actually know for sure that PEDs are dangerous. Why not? Because they are banned, many haven’t been properly tested. Most of our knowledge about PEDs comes from the 1970s or earlier, back when the USSR started its drug testing programs. At the time, a lot of the dosages were huge, and anything can be harmful in large doses, even water and various vitamins. The jury is still out on whether smaller doses of many PEDs are actually harmful; it would be nice to have some more research done on the subject before we decide that they are dangerous.

Alain Baxter with the UK and US Vicks’ inhalers

As a matter of fact, many substances that are used as PEDs — such as Human Growth Hormone (HGH) and testosterone — occur naturally in our bodies and can be prescribed by doctors. There is nothing inherently wrong with them; as with water and vitamins, the only problem is too much of them. Additionally, some athletes who get caught using banned substances are simply guilty of taking over-the-counter medicines. Consider the case of Scottish skier Alain Baxter, who, after winning a bronze medal, was disqualified for testing positive for levomethamphetamine. Levomethamphetamine is an inactive isomer of methamphetamine, and Baxter apparently ingested it using a Vicks inhaler. To make things worse, levomethamphetine is not found in the UK version of the inhaler that Baxter was familiar with, but it is found in the US version, which Baxter used, thinking it was safe.

So not only are we unsure of the danger posed by many PEDs, we also allow innocuous substances to make it onto banned substances lists. Our prohibition on PEDs actually leads to worse health outcomes and skews the playing field even further than it already is. We ban some “unnatural” elements, but allow others. All of these things point to one conclusion: the evidence in support of the ban on PEDs is very thin, if not non-existent.

- Devin

The Worst Management of the Year Award Goes To. . . .

For too long truly terrible management has not gotten the accolades it deserves. That is something we wish to rectify here at the Wages of Wins. That’s why we’ll be giving you periodic updates for the Worst Management in the League award throughout the upcoming NBA season. Also, unlike other most other awards, we recognize that it takes a team to make truly bad decisions. That’s why we won’t just be choosing a worst owner, GM or coach. No, only entire management teams are in the running for this award. Here is a breakdown of our criteria:

  • Bad moves. This includes bad trades, bad signings, questionable drafts.
  • Playing the wrong players. This includes playing the wrong players too much or the right players too little.
  • Bad PR. While not graded as highly as the other two, we do accept our perceptions of management are influenced by how they act in the media. We’ll just admit here that it has an impact.
For the purposes of this award, we are considering a “year” to be the period of time between the NBA Draft and the end of the playoffs. That means that offseason dealings count towards the season that they lead up to. But before we can begin tracking this year’s contenders, we’d be remiss if we didn’t first wrap up last year’s winners. And with that, my pick for worst management of the 2010-2011 is. . . .

The Orlando Magic

This pick is actually deceptive. The truth is that, when you have one of the best players in the league, you can hide a lot of bad decisions. However, when we delve into the details, the 2010-2011 Magic made some amazing moves to get on this list. Here’s a quick rundown.

Instead of playing big they decided to shoot – The Magic could have mimicked the reigning champion Lakers and played a strong trio of bigs with Gortat, Anderson and Howard. While Howard did get minutes, the Magic decided such greats as Richardson, Turkoglu, Lewis and Carter were more worthy of minutes than the other bigs.

Traded Marcin Gortat and a 1st round pick for Hedo Turkoglu – Turkoglu is a mediocre, old, overpaid small forward. Gortat is an amazing center. This move almost helped the Suns back to the playoffs.  On the other hand, the Magic got a mediocre player to surround one of the best players in the league.

Traded Rashard Lewis for Gilbert Arenas - Lewis had one of the worst and most expensive contracts in the NBA and was pretty much impossible to trade. Impossible, unless you are willing trade him for the only worse contract out there. Instead of benching Lewis behind their talented bigs they, they made a bad situation worse and traded for Gilbert Arenas. This saved a little cap space in the short run at the cost of an extra year and about $14 million in total salary. And this season, thanks to the amnesty, the Magic will only need to pony up $60 million to pay Arenas to go away.

Already in the running for next year

The Magic may not have made as many awful moves as other teams, but they made some of the worst out there. It’s no wonder Howard wants to leave the team. If the Magic continue with moves as bad as last year, they may be able to defend their title. They are certainly on to a smashing start with drunk dialing Dwight Howard!

Runner Ups

The Magic were a tough choice and we’d like to give a nod to a few of their competitors.

Hope you enjoyed this and we’ll keep you posted which managements are in the running this year.

-Dre

Explaining How the NBA Owners Won Again

After the NBA players and owners reached their agreement, I was asked the following question by a couple of different people in the media:  Why did the NBA players’ union not do as well as the players’ union in baseball?

My answer appeared today at Freakonomics.  In Why the NBA Players Keep Losing to the Owners, I focus on what I think is a natural split in the NBA players.

Beyond that split, I thought I would also offer a few more thoughts.  One issue noted at Freakonomics is that the NBA has many salary restrictions while baseball doesn’t have limits on what a player, team, or all players in the league can earn.  It might be useful to again note why the NBA imposes these restrictions.

The owners in the NBA claim that these restrictions are necessary to prevent teams from losing money and to promote competitive balance. However, despite an absence of salary restrictions, baseball – unlike the NBA — doesn’t claim these days that most teams are losing money.  Furthermore, competitive balance in baseball is actually better than what we observe in basketball.  Roger Noll and Gerald Scully developed a measure of balance that compares the actual standard deviation of winning percentage in a league to an idealized standard deviation which would exist if all teams were essentially equal in playing strength.  Since 1983 – when the NBA instituted a cap on team payroll – this ratio has averaged 2.8 in the NBA (it averaged 2.4 in all the years before the payroll cap).  In contrast, in both the American League and National League, this ratio has been 1.7 since 1983 (lower values means more balance).  If we look at the NBA since the cap on individual salaries was put in place in 1999, we again see an average ratio of 2.8.  And in the AL and NL since 1999, we see ratios of 1.9 and 1.7 respectively.  In sum, despite significant restrictions on player compensation in the NBA, basketball has never been as balanced as baseball is today.

Salary restrictions – as I have noted before – do not lead to more balance in a sport.  But if salary restrictions don’t produce better balance, what’s the purpose of these restrictions?  To answer this question we need to note one significant similarity between the two leagues.  Both leagues consist of big market teams (i.e. New York, LA, etc…) and small market teams (i.e. Milwaukee, Minneapolis, etc…).  In both leagues we see that big market teams make much more revenue than the small market teams.  And in both leagues, the root of the labor conflicts we see is how the league is going to address the plight of the small market teams.

As noted in the discussion of baseball’s agreement, small market teams in baseball are aided by significant revenue sharing.  Historically, the NBA has not done much revenue sharing.  In fact, gate receipts in the NBA have not been shared in the past.  Consequently, another mechanism had to be uncovered to help small market teams in basketball.  And that mechanism has been substantial salary controls.

In other words, in baseball we see revenue shortfalls of teams in small markets (i.e. the Pirates) somewhat overcome by payments by teams in the big markets (i.e. the Yankees).  In basketball, the problems of teams in small markets are resolved by taking money from the players.

And why are the owners able to take money from the players?  Hopefully that question was answered today at Freakonomics.

- DJ

Dopes about doping #1

A while ago I wrote a brief summary of Taylor Branch’s excellent article on the “NCAA cartel”, which outlines the a majority of the problems of the NCAA. Today I get to tackle another controversial subject that is often poorly understood: doping.

A broken record

1988 Men’s 100m Final

At the 1988 Olympic Games in Seoul, South Korea, Canadian Ben Johnson won the illustrious Men’s 100m dash, setting an impressive world record and taunting his competitors by raising his arm before he crossed the finish line. Johnson’s time of 9.79 seconds crushed the existing record of 9.95. But Johnson’s record was stripped from the books after he tested positive for the steroid stanozolol, which was on the International Olympic Committee’s list of banned substances. Johnson was also stripped of his gold medal and was suspended from competition for two years. He was reinstated in 1991, but when he tested for excess testosterone in 1993, Johnson was banned for life. Johnson’s illegitimate and unofficial record would remain unbroken until 2002, when Tim Montgomery ran a time of 9.78 seconds during a competition in Paris. Not surprisingly, Montgomery was also found to have used banned substances, and so Montgomery’s record was wiped out from the official books as well. It wasn’t until 2005, when Asafa Powell ran a time of 9.77 seconds, that the official world record bested Johnson’s 9.79 seconds.

Gimme five!

What isn’t as widely known as the Ben Johnson story is that Carl Lewis – who had been awarded the gold medal that had been stripped from Johnson – had also tested positive for a banned substance, although he got to keep his gold medal. In fact, of the eight runners in that 1988 100m Final, five (Johnson, Lewis, Linford Christie, Dennis Mitchell, and Desai Williams) eventually ended up testing positive for some kind of banned substance during their careers. So why was Johnson the only one to be punished after that race? In fact, why don’t we go one question further: if the use of banned substances is so common, and the best athletes keep testing positive for banned substances, why are steroids and other performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) banned in competitions across the globe?

The arguments

The three arguments usually given in support of a ban on PEDs are the following:

  • PEDs are unnatural and diminish athletes’ achievements (the ‘unnatural’ argument)
  • PEDs users have an unfair advantage over non-users; a ban removes that advantage and creates an equal playing field (the ‘equal playing field’ argument)
  • PEDs are unhealthy and can damage users; a ban protects athletes’ health (the ‘health’ argument)

I find these three arguments to be quite unconvincing. In addition, I find that the following arguments support removing the ban:

  • the improved entertainment value without a ban (the ‘entertainment’ argument)
  • the cost of anti-doping measures, including testing (the ‘cost’ argument)
While some of the other writers take on free agents and discuss the upcoming NBA seasons, I’ll be taking a few posts to review this topic. Stay tuned!
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- Devin