If you’re interested in the Wins Produced numbers for this season just head over to the NBA Geek for all you could ask for and more!
In Denver, Carmelo Anthony often got credit for his teammates’ stellar play. Melo had a trick: by scoring a lot of points, he was able to mask that he wasn’t that productive. Of course, this trick relied on the other players on the team being productive. Now with Melo in New York, the Knicks are not doing very well. As the Nuggets are doing well without Melo and the Knicks are doing poorly with him, the blame seems to be pointing at Melo. The truth is that Melo is actually playing at an above average level in New York. The real person that both New Yorkers and Melo should be mad at is Amaré Stoudemire, and it turns out he is beating Melo at his own game.
Amaré tricks people into thinking he’s good by shooting a lot
| Season | MP | WP48 | WP | PPG | TS% | ORB48 | DRB48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-2003 | 2570 | 0.119 | 6.4 | 13.5 | 0.530 | 4.7 | 8.8 |
| 2003-2004 | 2025 | 0.048 | 2.0 | 20.6 | 0.536 | 3.7 | 8.0 |
| 2004-2005 | 2889 | 0.183 | 11.0 | 26.0 | 0.617 | 3.6 | 8.3 |
| 2005-2006 | 50 | -0.014 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 0.420 | 5.7 | 9.6 |
| 2006-2007 | 2689 | 0.173 | 9.7 | 20.4 | 0.637 | 4.0 | 10.1 |
| 2007-2008 | 2677 | 0.209 | 11.7 | 25.2 | 0.656 | 3.2 | 9.7 |
| 2008-2009 | 1948 | 0.102 | 4.2 | 21.4 | 0.617 | 2.8 | 7.7 |
| 2009-2010 | 2838 | 0.139 | 8.2 | 23.1 | 0.615 | 3.9 | 8.5 |
| 2010-2011 | 2870 | 0.039 | 2.3 | 25.3 | 0.565 | 3.3 | 7.3 |
When Amaré was at his best in 2008, he was an amazing scorer and a darn good rebounder. But after 2008 he had a sharp drop in his production. His amazing scoring took a hit and his rebounding declined. In 2010 some of his rebounding returned, but neither that nor his scoring was enough to make him truly great. When he went to New York, his scoring efficiency went down considerably, but by taking a lot of shots he was able to convince a lot of fans and media that he was an All-Star, All-NBA and MVP-worthy player.
Amaré’s 25.3 points per game last season probably reminded many of Amaré’s 2008 season when he placed 6th in MVP voting. There’s a significant difference though: in 2008, an average center taking the same number of shots per game as Amaré did would have scored 20.8 points per game. In 2009, an average center taking Amaré’s number of shots would have scored 24.3 points per game. However, the Knicks didn’t seem to notice and that brings up another funny part of the Amaré and Melo story in New York.
Amaré drives out productive players
Chauncey Billups is a shell of his former self and that is because he’s aged. That said, he was still an above average point guard last season and is still close to average this season. In order to afford Chandler and keep Amaré, the Knicks decide to amnesty Mr. Big Shot. The problem with this is that the Knicks have no real other options at point guard. Iman Shumpert and Toney Douglas have been given the reigns at point guard and have played terribly. Much like the decision to keep Melo resulted in Marcus Camby being let go for very little, the decision to keep Amaré meant that Chauncey Billups got let go for nothing.
The key difference
The basic difference between Melo in New York and Melo in Denver is that the Denver teams have been much better than New York teams. Last season the Knicks got lucky in that Landry Fields played amazingly, Raymond Felton and Chauncey Billups were productive guards and Melo and Gallinari were ok at the small forward spot. This season the old Landry Fields has disapeared, Felton and Billups have been let go, and Melo is still ok at the small forward spot. The Knicks did luck into Tyson Chandler — who is playing amazingly at center — but the problem is that, with only one great player and very weak players at two positions, it’s ridiculous to assume the Knicks can compete.
In the end, Melo is very much getting what he deserves. Another player is using his exact same tricks, but this time Melo is getting the blame instead of the credit. Of course, Melo should still be mad that Amaré forgot to emulate the most important part of the trick of looking productive by scoring lots of points — and that is to have very productive teammates.
-Dre
the numbers for 2009-10 Amar’e are wrong. Well, at least the DREB48 is wrong, I didn’t check if the WP is right. Should be 8.5. I triple checked at B-ref (I only wondered because I was confused at how his rebounding was so much lower that season when my memory was telling me otherwise).
Is this a typo?
I wouldn’t call him a darn good rebounder in ’08, either (he was better in ’07, actually) Not even top 50. Phx played at a fast pace which inflated his boards.
Amar’e needs a PnR PG badly to be truly effective on O. In ’08-09, Porter instilled a slow down offense that was different which hurt Amar’e and Nash. Plus he got hurt and played hurt, then his eye ended his season. He got better in ’09-10 going back to the old style, but Nash was playing a bit less and no more marion/diaw meant worse passing for Amar’e and the team was more spot up shooting based.
Anywah, the Knicks are an offensively constructed mess. The mistake was never Billpus, it was trading Felton for him.
the Knicks are a good example demonstrated the effect of other players.
Landry fields is now “average,” and Toney Douglas went from 2 years of a bit above “average” to trash. Same with Amar’e. All this despite the switch of Billups to Tyson (slightly about average to superstar according to WP48) and adequate replacements in Harrelson, Balkman, and Bibby.
What do the WP people think of this. Are we to chalk this up to fluke, decline, or maybe, just maybe, people are right when they say the construction of a team matters and that some players can have a massive effect on the WP of others?
If it’s the latter, what are the implications for Wins Produced?
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Metta,
Great catch on Amare’s rebounds! That was a complete typo. I will agree that trading a passing PG for a scoring PG on a team with Melo and Amare was an interesting choice. Playing what they’re currently playing instead of either is terrible (offensively constructed mess sums it up nicely)
Metta,
I will say we never said team construction didn’t matter. The complaint we have on chemistry is the idea that great players “can’t” play together or that mediocre players in the right system could suddenly be good.
Something odd with New York is that young players (Douglas, Fields and Shumpert) seem eager to just shoot. This is really bad when your two “stars” are also players that like to shoot a lot. In terms of some players impacting the WP of others. That’s an interesting point. In Wages of Wins Dave actually mentioned diminishing returns. The impact isn’t large but as each shot you take is one fewer your teammates can take that can certainly matter. I don’t quite know if the whole team decides to just waste possessions for their own point totals if everything can fall apart but this may very well be an example of that happening.
NBA teams try to build balanced teams. With player and personnel changes, this stays relatively constant (by balanced, I don’t mean “good,” I mean shooters, slashers, defenders, distributors, etc).
So the diminishing returns won’t show up in the data because teams aren’t willing to allow for its existence, so to speak.
In addition, I think there are only a few elite NBA players like Dirk, Kobe, Lebron that have a unique offensive value, or on the other hand terribly awful like Bargnani.
So it’s true that the DR is small because by and large teams aren’t stupid enough to allow for large ones and only a few players out of hundreds are elite.
But along the edges we can and will see large affects. Like Fields and Douglas this year.
So when we say the DR is small, that’s on average. It does not mean there aren’t situations with large DR or that there’s no Omitted Variable Bias. What the data is saying is only as important as you understand how to interpret it.
I watch every Knicks game.
Fields and Douglas:
1. So far this season both are just shooting poorly even when they get good looks
2. Both are probably being hurt by the slightly slower pace this year and no real PG to get them the ball on the break and off cuts
3. Both have been playing more tentative since they started shooting so poorly
4. Fields is getting fewer rebounds because this team has more good rebounders than the pre Melo team
Amare is settling for more jump shots:
1. Tyson Chandler at C is taking up space in the paint
2. He gained 20 pounds of muscle in the off season and may be a tad slower
3. He’s being defended by quicker PFs now that he’s not playing C
4. He’s just shooting poorly even when he gets a good look
The team was totally gutted for Melo and has no bench or PG in a system that puts a premium on good PG play to run the break, move the ball, and run the P&R. Melo is a ball stopper that loves to go into ISO mode and shoot bad shots.
It’s still early. Landry Fields per 36 minute shots attempts is actually down. He’s just not shooting as efficiently from the field, or the line. I don’t know how his rebounding will play out, but i’m pretty sure he’s just in a slump shooting wise. He can’t go from shooting at 59% ts to under 50% on slightly less shots.
EA,
To start the season Fields’ attempts were up. Additionally the goal of the rest of the team (bar Chandler) was apparently to shoot the second they got the ball. My hope is that Fields was merely taking the shots he could get even if they weren’t good (and that he was in a slump). He does seem to be improving so there’s hope. As long as Douglas and Amare insist on shooting though the Knicks will be sad.
I haven’t watched many Knicks games, but I will post some stats for Landry which seems to confirm the bit I’ve seen.
Last season end of shot clock shots (final 3 sec): 8% of total shots, 54efg%
This season: 22% of shots at 29efg%
My guess is last season he took wide open end of clock shots, this season he’s taking more contested end of clock shots. Otherwise, it’s a massive slump. The increased load indicates the former IMO.
He is also taking less under 10 seconds shots, or put backs/fast breaks. Slower pace strikes here (less dunks overall).
Last season, 70% of his shots were assisted, this season 59%.
He also has yet to make a single long 2 this year! wow! 3pt% way down as well.
Toney isn’t quite the same. Shooting less at the end of clock, but he’s shooting 2 more long 2s with the rest relatively unchanged. And end of clock % is way down. I’m guessing his end of clock shots became long 2s and shoots 3s early and unopen now.
Interesting scenario playing out.
I’m not worried about Douglas. He was a good shooter for two seasons. He had shoulder surgery in the off season & IMO will recover his best form.
I’m worried about Fields because he was not known as a great shooter in college and started his decline last season. So it may be that the early part of last year was the aberration.
Amare is didn’t get any work in during the off season because of his bad back. The main issue is getting him to the rim in the P&R. Baron Davis has not been a particularly productive player in recent years, but he’s a good play maker. He should get Amare better looks and improve his efficiency.
Melo is a very talented guy that could easily be a very productive player, but It almost seems like he has no comprehension that the goal is for the “team” to get the easiest possible shot. He’s constantly dribbling into impossible situations, taking terrible shots, stopping the ball. He either has no faith in his teammates or he’s a self centered idiot.
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