Which teams did best in terms of extensions
- I used Dave’s numbers for the WP48 and Wins Produced numbers from 2009, 2010 and 2011
- 2012 numbers are from the NBA Geek and valid through January 26th 2012
- Points per game from Basketball-Reference.
Zach Lowe has a great piece over at the Point Forward summing up which teams extended their draft picks from the 2008 draft, exercised their options on 2009 draftees and which players’ contracts were put on the back burner. I decided to add some Wages of Wins Analysis. I’ll go over some of the good and bad decision of yesterday.
Kevin Love signs a three year max deal with a fourth year player option
- Player rating: A+
- Contract decision rating: D+
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Love | 2009 | 2048 | 0.16 | 6.8 | 81 | 11.1 |
| Kevin Love | 2010 | 1714 | 0.251 | 9.0 | 60 | 14 |
| Kevin Love | 2011 | 2611 | 0.335 | 18.2 | 73 | 20.2 |
| Kevin Love | 2012 | 714 | 0.24 | 3.6 | 18 | 25.3 |
Patrick over at the NBA Geek has a great piece summing this up. Kevin Love is an amazing player and getting him re-signed is a major victory for a pretty terrible franchise. However there were some major flaws. As Patrick aptly sums it up, the Wolves had Kevin Love completely outmaneuvered negotiation wise and they messed it up. As Patrick aptly explains:
Basically, Taylor tried to play hardball with Kevin Love and got swindled in a huge way. And all for “future flexibility”. Wait, so you didn’t want to lock up a franchise player so that you could later, maybe…lock up…a…different…franchise player?
and then of course the real punch line:
The Timberwolves had Kevin Love in a bad negotiating spot…They were definitely playing hardball. And playing hardball is fine. But you should know what the hell your homerun scenario is when you are playing hardball. And your homerun scenario is most definitely not ‘Our franchise player will be an unrestricted free agent just as he enters his prime years.’
So despite getting one of the best players in basketball the Timberwolves still managed to mess it up. That sounds familiar right?
The Orlando Magic do not offer an extension to Ryan Anderson
- Player rating: A
- Decision rating: D
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Anderson | 2008-2009 | 1312 | 0.087 | 2.4 | 66 | 7.4 |
| Ryan Anderson | 2009-2010 | 910 | 0.129 | 2.4 | 63 | 7.7 |
| Ryan Anderson | 2010-2011 | 1424 | 0.211 | 6.3 | 64 | 10.6 |
| Ryan Anderson | 2011-2012 | 517 | 0.267 | 2.9 | 17 | 16.8 |
Oh wow what another terrible move by this franchise. The reasoning real boils down to the fact that until they know what is happening with Dwight they don’t want to make any major moves. The issue is that Howard is a great player and not only that he’s great via conventional wisdom. His points per game have increased every season. Guess what? In the NBA talented scoring bigs are valuable! So by not even attempting to lock him up they run the risk of another team inflating his price in the offseason. They are essentially saying instead of dealing with locking up a good player they’d rather wait until their roster is more in shambles and his price could be higher. There’s a reason this franchise is the Wages of Wins Network reigning “Worst Management of the Year” winner.
The Wizards don’t offer an extension to JaVale McGee
- Player rating: B
- Decision rating: B
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaVale McGee | 2008-2009 | 113 | 0.050 | 1.2 | 75 | 6.5 |
| JaVale McGee | 2009-2010 | 968 | 0.098 | 2.0 | 60 | 6.4 |
| JaVale McGee | 2010-2011 | 2193 | 0.164 | 7.5 | 79 | 10.1 |
| JaVale McGee | 2011-2012 | 523 | 0.159 | 1.7 | 18 | 10.9 |
Alright I know I just went off on Orlando for not locking up a talented big, so why does Washington (who we’ve been less than kind to) get a pass? Well it turns out McGee isn’t a fantastic scorer. At 10 points per game his market value is not likely to be huge. When “role players” are restricted free agents in the offseason then teams are tentative about approaching them. So basically the Wizards are saying they think they can get a bargain come the offseason. At least, that’s the reasoning for their grade.
The Nuggets re-signed Danilo Gallinari to a four-year, $42 million deal.
- Player grade: B
- Decision rating: B
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo Gallinari | 2008-2009 | 412 | 0.122 | 1.1 | 28 | 6.1 |
| Danilo Gallinari | 2009-2010 | 2747 | 0.066 | 3.8 | 81 | 15.1 |
| Danilo Gallinari | 2010-2011 | 2104 | 0.096 | 4.2 | 62 | 15.6 |
| Danilo Gallinari | 2011-2012 | 616 | 0.172 | 2.2 | 18 | 17.7 |
As a Nuggets fan I’m very excited about the potential of Gallinari. That said, he’s been around average for his first few seasons. To be fair, he did have some injury issues and both the Knicks and Nuggets have been playing him out of position. This move is definitely better than the alternative and if Gallinari keeps progressing then I will be happy to admit I graded too harshly.
The Bobcats picked up Gerald Henderson’s $3.1 million team option.
- Player rating: D
- Decision rating: C
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Henderon | 2009-2010 | 355 | 0.073 | 0.5 | 43 | 2.6 |
| Gerald Henderon | 2010-2011 | 1661 | 0.083 | 2.9 | 68 | 9.6 |
| Gerald Henderon | 2011-2012 | 629 | 0.052 | 0.7 | 18 | 15.4 |
It’s not like Gerald Henderson has been a particularly bad player. The thing to remember is that Charlotte is a smaller market so players are actually more expensive. When Jordan and company chose to gut their franchise they oddly chose to get rid of all of their good players. This move is keeping a mediocre to bad player around. As a small market if you want to compete you can’t really rely on players like this to help you through. It’s not as if I’m surprised though and if we grade using the Bobcats front office as the standard then this really ranks closer to a B+.
The Hornets and Grizzlies luck out with Eric Gordon and O.J. Mayo
- Player ratings: C
- Decision ratings: A (via luck)
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Gordon | 2008-2009 | 2677 | 0.098 | 5.5 | 78 | 16.1 |
| Eric Gordon | 2009-2010 | 2229 | 0.073 | 3.4 | 62 | 16.9 |
| Eric Gordon | 2010-2011 | 2112 | 0.110 | 4.9 | 56 | 22.3 |
| Eric Gordon | 2011-2012 | 78 | 0.035 | 0.1 | 2 | 21.0 |
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo | 2008-2009 | 3120 | 0.041 | 2.7 | 82 | 18.5 |
| O.J. Mayo | 2009-2010 | 3113 | 0.093 | 6 | 82 | 17.5 |
| O.J. Mayo | 2010-2011 | 1869 | 0.038 | 1.5 | 71 | 11.3 |
| O.J. Mayo | 2011-2012 | 420 | 0.100 | 0.9 | 17 | 11.8 |
The Grizzlies decided against extending an offer to O.J. in large part because they already have a lot of salary commited thanks mostly to Marc Gasol (worth it), Zach Randolph (worth it when healthy) and Rudy Gay (not worth it). However, O.J. hasn’t been much more than average thus far in his career. He does score points though, so his salary will probably be above his production. The Grizzlies are actually lucky they may not be able to re-sign him. In fact an identical story can pretty much be told for…
Eric Gordon declined the offer put forth by the Hornets (allegedly it was a four year high salary deal). Eric Gordon is an average player. New Orleans is a small market and thanks to Gordon’s high points per game his salary demands were apparently similar to Kevin Love’s. The Hornets may still make the mistake of signing Gordon is they chose to match in the offseason. For now though they’ve avoided a bad mistake.
And the rest!
Those were the highlights for me. I know I left some names out as I wan’t too thrilled one way or the other. However, if you want to see the stats for the rest of the players with extension statuses I’ve listed them below. Enjoy!
| Player | Season | MP | WP48 | WP | G | PPG | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hasheem Thabeet | 2009-2010 | 883 | 0.128 | 2.4 | 68 | 3.1 | Not extended |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 2010-2011 | 373 | -0.052 | -0.4 | 47 | 1.1 | Not extended |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 2011-2012 | 11 | 0.444 | 0.1 | 2 | 3.1 | Not extended |
| Roy Hibbert | 2008-2009 | 1009 | -0.04 | -0.8 | 70 | 7.1 | Not extended |
| Roy Hibbert | 2009-2010 | 2035 | 0.028 | 1.2 | 81 | 11.7 | Not extended |
| Roy Hibbert | 2010-2011 | 2244 | 0.021 | 1.0 | 81 | 12.7 | Not extended |
| Roy Hibbert | 2011-2012 | 502 | 0.198 | 1.5 | 17 | 14.4 | Not extended |
| Brook Lopez | 2008-2009 | 2501 | 0.097 | 5.1 | 82 | 13.0 | Not extended |
| Brook Lopez | 2009-2010 | 3027 | 0.095 | 6.0 | 82 | 18.8 | Not extended |
| Brook Lopez | 2010-2011 | 2889 | -0.003 | -0.2 | 82 | 20.4 | Not extended |
| Brook Lopez | 2011-2012 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | Not extended |
| Jonny Flynn | 2009-2010 | 2339 | -0.021 | -1.0 | 81 | 13.5 | Not extended |
| Jonny Flynn | 2010-2011 | 983 | -0.08 | -1.6 | 53 | 5.3 | Not extended |
| Jonny Flynn | 2011-2012 | 70 | -0.028 | 0.0 | 5 | 3.6 | Not extended |
| Terrence Williams | 2009-2010 | 1764 | -0.006 | -0.2 | 78 | 8.4 | Not extended |
| Terrence Williams | 2010-2011 | 290 | -0.133 | -0.8 | 21 | 5.0 | Not extended |
| Terrence Williams | 2011-2012 | 138 | 0.023 | 0.1 | 7 | 6.4 | Not extended |
| Courtney Lee | 2008-2009 | 1939 | 0.116 | 4.7 | 77 | 8.4 | Not extended |
| Courtney Lee | 2009-2010 | 2375 | 0.106 | 5.2 | 71 | 12.5 | Not extended |
| Courtney Lee | 2010-2011 | 1723 | 0.102 | 3.7 | 81 | 8.3 | Not extended |
| Courtney Lee | 2011-2012 | 224 | 0.111 | 0.5 | 10 | 9.0 | Not extended |
| George Hill | 2008-2009 | 1270 | 0.046 | 1.2 | 77 | 5.7 | Negotiations fell apart |
| George Hill | 2009-2010 | 2276 | 0.113 | 5.3 | 78 | 12.4 | Negotiations fell apart |
| George Hill | 2010-2011 | 2148 | 0.124 | 5.6 | 76 | 11.6 | Negotiations fell apart |
| George Hill | 2011-2012 | 398 | 0.186 | 1.5 | 16 | 9.5 | Negotiations fell apart |
| Nicolas Batum | 2008-2009 | 1454 | 0.161 | 4.9 | 79 | 5.4 | Negotiations fell apart |
| Nicolas Batum | 2009-2010 | 918 | 0.230 | 4.4 | 37 | 10.1 | Negotiations fell apart |
| Nicolas Batum | 2010-2011 | 2522 | 0.111 | 5.9 | 80 | 12.4 | Negotiations fell apart |
| Nicolas Batum | 2011-2012 | 470 | 0.221 | 2.2 | 19 | 11.1 | Negotiations fell apart |
| Toney Douglas | 2009-2010 | 1087 | 0.107 | 2.4 | 56 | 8.6 | $2.1 million option exercised |
| Toney Douglas | 2010-2011 | 1971 | 0.116 | 4.8 | 81 | 10.6 | $2.1 million option exercised |
| Toney Douglas | 2011-2012 | 411 | -0.135 | -1.2 | 18 | 8.7 | $2.1 million option exercised |