Are the coaches better voters than the fans?

As always our numbers come from the great NBA Geek.

When it comes to the All-Star games the fans get a free pass for bad voting. The argument goes that the fans should get to vote in who they want to see. As such, production and proper basketball need not be requirements. The coaches pick the reserves and their job is to use their nuanced basketball knowledge to pick the most deserving players. How did they do?

I took a look at all players with at least 25+ MPG and at least 20 games so far this season. I then looked at their per minute production using Wins Produced (WP48) via NBA Geek to see how good the players the coaches picked were, as well as their rank. For reference 0.100 is average and 0.200 qualifies as “star” level.

The coaches picked measured by performance

West Reserves based on performance
Player	Team	WP48	WP48 Position Rank
Steve Nash	Phoenix	0.280	1
Tony Parker	San Antonio	0.120	25
Russell Westbrook	OKC	0.091	31
Kevin Love	Minnesota	0.261	3
LaMarcus Aldridge	Portland	0.162	16
Dirk Nowitzki	Dallas	0.054	39
Marc Gasol	Memphis	0.182	9

East Reserves based on performance
Player	Team	WP48	WP48 Position Rank
Deron Williams	New Jersey	0.042	43
Andre Iguodala	Philadelphia	0.267	2
Paul Pierce	Boston	0.196	10
Luol Deng	Chicago	0.152	20
Chris Bosh	Miami	0.110	27
Joe Johnson	Atlanta	0.103	30
Roy Hibbert	Indiana	0.154	11

It’s hard to give the coaches that much credit. With a total of 14 picks they only managed to hit 5 players in the top 10 for their respective categories. What’s more they picked three below average players in Dirk, Williams and Westbrook. A common belief is that because coaches have been around the game they get the little things that make players good. Is it possible they are susceptible to other factors? Let’s take a look!

Another look at the coaches selections

West Reserves by Points and Team Performance
Player	PPG	PPG team Rank	Team	Team record	Team Playoff Rank
Deron Williams	20.9	1	New Jersey	8-19	11th
Joe Johnson	18.6	1	Atlanta	17-9	5th
Paul Pierce	18.4	1	Boston	14-11	7th
Luol Deng	16.0	2	Chicago	22-6	1st
Andre Iguodala	13.0	3	Philadelphia	18-8	3rd
Chris Bosh	19.2	3	Miami	19-7	2nd
Roy Hibbert	13.6	2	Indiana	17-8	4th

West Reserves by Points and Team Performance
Player	PPG	PPG team Rank	Team	Team record	Team Playoff Rank
Russell Westbrook	22.7	2	OKC	20-6	1st
Tony Parker	18.9	1	San Antonio	18-9	2nd
Steve Nash	17.2	1	Phoenix	11-15	12th
Kevin Love	25.0	1	Minnesota	13-13	10th
LaMarcus Aldridge	23.3	1	Portland	14-12	9th
Dirk Nowitzki	17.6	1	Dallas	15-11	5th
Marc Gasol	15.0	2	Memphis	13-13	10th

Let’s break down the coaches secret formula.

Coaches like winners

Out East all but one of our players (we’ll get to Williams in a second) are on winning teams that currently would make the playoffs. Out West all but one of our players (we’ll get to Nash in a second too!) are on teams with records at or above 0.500. In short, our coaches seem to think to be an All-Star you must be on a team that stands a shot at making the playoffs.

Coaches like points

Almost all of our players lead their teams in points per game. Only three of our players weren’t the top scorer available for their team (don’t forget, fans like scorers too). The only position the coaches don’t seem to really care about a player being the top scorer is center. Of course Hibbert and Gasol are the second best scorer and top rebounder on their team. So as an All-Star you can be the second scoring option if you’re the top boarder.

Coaches like themselves

As mentioned, only Nash and Deron are on teams that look like they’re going nowhere fast in the playoff race. Williams does score a lot of points (although not in a good way), so we kind of get the pick. Still, both of these players stand out. Until we consider that both of these players have been All-Star picks before. What’s more they’ve been picked by the coaches. Williams was an All-Star reserve the last two years. Nash was a reserve in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008. It turns out we are more likely to think a decision is good if we’ve made it before! A player’s bad record or low points might dissuade a coach from picking a good player. That is unless, they look back and see they’ve said that player was good in the past.

Progress

For the most part the coaches picked the top scorer on a winning team. This isn’t the worst heuristic but given the pedestal coaches are placed on, I’d expect more. I will say that Andre Iguodala was picked and this is progress. Picking Iguodala means coaches may just listen to their own rhetoric about what it takes to win. Of course Joe Johnson and Deron Williams were picked as well so I wouldn’t expect a revolution just yet.

-Dre

11 Responses to "Are the coaches better voters than the fans?"

TheNBAGeek says:

February 10, 2012 at 11:26 am

In the West the coaches managed to luckbox into getting more-or-less acceptable reserves. Lowry and Harden are more deserving than Parker and Westbrook, but god forbid the coaches vote for a guy who doesn’t even start (GASP!), so they don’t really surprise me, and Millsap is definitely having a better year than Dirk (and Dirk agrees), but Dirk was a shoe-in based on legacy, last year’s finals, etc, so again, his selection shouldn’t surprise anyone.

The East, however…I mean, what the hell were they smoking? In what bizarro universe is Ray Allen not an All-Star this year? Would anyone trade Rajon Rondo for Deron Williams straight up? Hell, who’d trade Kyrie Irving for him straight up? Exactly how many more threes does Ryan Andersen need to hit before people pay attention? Why does Elton Brand get no love when his team is crushing, but Bosh gets all kinds of credit for the Heat’s success?

Even within their own whack-job logic schemes, the coaches baffle me.
James Brocato says:

February 10, 2012 at 12:11 pm

I don’t think they wanted to pick Iguodala. I think they looked at the Sixers’ record and thought “They have one of the best records in the NBA, they MUST have an all-star!!” And they weren’t quite ready to pick Lou Williams. So they reluctantly checked the box next to Iguodala’s name.
lovethoseknicks says:

February 10, 2012 at 1:16 pm

NBAGeek,

“Would anyone trade Rajon Rondo for Deron Williams straight up?”

I think a “lot” of people would make that trade, but it wouldn’t be based on Deron’s stats from this year. I’m not sure what’s going on with Deron Williams, but he hasn’t been the same since hurting his hand (wrist?) last year and going to NJ. He’s been playing a little better lately, but he’s still not 100%.

He has very little help in NJ. Maybe if he was lobbing balls to Howard and had someone else to take some of the attention off him, he’d do a little better. I think either way a lot of people would make that trade based on his best form and the expectation he’d return to it in different circumstances.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Rondo, but I think the general feeling in the league is that Williams is the better all around player because he can shoot fairly well from outside (or at least he used to).
Daniel McAuliffe says:

February 10, 2012 at 1:32 pm

I’d say there’s definitely some inclusion of last years performance in this years selections(probably fair enough, there’s only been 6 weeks of play), as well as the usual case of the winning team argument. I’d also guess that Coaches are looking at per game averages, rather than per minute. It’s easy to look at Aldridge vs Millsap, and see Aldridge is ahead by 6.8 points, while Millsap is ahead by 1.2 rebounds, and the other categories seem close, so Aldridge is selected. The fact that Millsap is getting his production in 5 and a half fewer minutes seems to be ignored, as well as the fewer turnovers(TO don’t show up in the NBA.com comparison, so apparently they don’t matter.) Quality of role players is probably ignored as well. So T-Mac and Marvin Williams playing out of their minds means Iso Joe is worthy of being an all star, and Millsap is held back because the top jazz players in minutes average <.100 WP48.
GoogleUser2 says:

February 10, 2012 at 2:30 pm

For evidence that a decision must be good if you’ve made it in the past, look no further than Joe Johnson.
Fans vs. coaches in picking NBA talent | The Wages of Wins Journal says:

February 11, 2012 at 4:38 am

[...] made a few mistakes picking their NBA All-Stars. Yesterday, I put up an article pointing out how the coaches made a few mistakes picking the NBA reserves. The point I took with the coaches is that the coaches are supposed to be better judges of talent. [...]
paulmuell says:

February 11, 2012 at 4:58 am

@Daniel
I would argue that if you compare Stars with each other, the WP48 stats are less important than per game stats. There is a trade of between minutes played and per minute production if you playing high minutes. So if an Star plays more minutes he is likely to make his team better even if his per minute stats decline. Maybe WP per Game would be the better measure here.

I think if you do that, the decisions lock less stupid than what was shown in the article (the position ranks would look better).
Kyle Anthony says:

February 12, 2012 at 5:36 am

How could you even say that Dirk is a below average player? He came into the season with a hurt knee and out of shape but has averaged 26.4 ppg in his past 5 games while shooting 55 percent. The Mavs are 4th in the West. Dirk’s been snubbed twice before in 99-00 and 00-01 scoring 17.5 and 21.8 ppg(6.5 and 9.2 boards a game.)

Parker is scoring 19 a game and having a career high 7.7 apg without Manu(20 ppg through five games and their best player. With a washed-up Duncan who’s having his worst year ever Spurs are still 19-9.)

Rubio is shooting 37 percent and has Kevin Love unlike Steve Nash(that’s why he and Parker are deserving all-stars.) And Rubio’s team isn’t even .500(as Lin outplayed him last night.)

Guys who shouldn’t be there in the East: Josh Smith over Melo, Chandler over Hibbert, Williams over D-Will, Granger over Johnson.)
In the West: Wallace or Lowry over Westbrook.

Snubs: Pau Gasol, Harden, Rudy Gay, Allen, Rondo, Irving, Bargnani…
Andres Alvarez says:

February 12, 2012 at 10:44 am

Kyle,
You bring up scoring a lot as your justification. The only player you list shooting percentages for in Rubio. How well players shoot does matter. The truth is things other than scoring matter in basketball. If it didn’t then basketball would just be Horse. They made a movie about that (Baseketball) and the thesis of that movie seemed to be that it would be very boring and even the South Park guys wouldn’t be able to make it enjoyable. (Although the movie did get the Reel Big Fish cover of Take on Me, so it wasn’t a complete waste.)
Jeremy Lin helps teach us about Yay Points, Clutch and Risk | The Wages of Wins Journal says:

February 15, 2012 at 6:41 am

[...] Points drive perception in the NBA. Points get you drafted high, paid, voted to All-Star games and even sways voters for major awards. It is true to win in the NBA you have to outscore the opponent and this is of course is a factor of points. Of course, missing shots gives the opponent an opportunity to score. As does turning the ball over. In Lin’s first three starts he scored 28, 23 and 38 points while shooting over 60% true shooting. That’s remarkable! In his last two games he’s kept up the 20+ points per game but he had a 33.3% true shooting percentage in the win over Minnesota and 54.3% true shooting percentage in the win over Toronto — also had Lin not scored his last second clutch shot he would have ended the night with a below average 50.3% true shooting percentage. Those marks are terrible and above average respectively. He’s also been racking up the turnovers. Of course, the focus is still on points. Lin shoots amazingly? He’s amazing! Lin shoots terribly? He’s still amazing! Lin shoots above average? Still amazing! People like winners. The Wages of Wins showed the biggest factor in ticket sales is a winning team. However the biggest thing people like to give credit to is scoring. Lin is scoring a lot of points on a currently winning team. Players like Joe Johnson show this is a good way to boost your popularity. [...]
What does the NBA want from the All-Star Game? says:

November 13, 2012 at 5:59 pm

[...] or not fans pick players based on merit is debatable. The simple fact is that being voted to All-Star games has clear implications to players on [...]

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