Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 Playoffs (5/4/2012): Blood on the Court

“In difficult ground, press on; On hemmed-in ground, use subterfuge; In death ground, fight.” -Sun Tzu

So that’s where all the good, close playoff games went. I was a little confused there for a minute.

After a few nights of no shows and knuckleheads, we got back to the playoff grind. Scrappy teams giving it their all to stay alive and make it a series.

Bumps, elbows, overtimes, dramatic injuries and blood on the court. We even got an angry, glaring Pam McGee.

That was fun.

Let’s get to the boxscores and recaps.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. We are using New Wins Produced numbers. I am manually compiling them for the playoffs and Nerd Numbers is compiling them for the season and playoffs. There will be some drift but it’s good enough for horseshoes,hand grenades and tactical nuclear weapons.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Posession and Play stats:Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers, Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA,True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player.Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
    • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
    • Points over Par. This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the games point margin.

Let’s get to it before Pam McGee comes after me.

Celtics- Hawks #3

Rajon Rondo was back tonight for the C’s and he had a triple double. It’s was however a deceptive triple double.He was innefficient in a big way. It was the stellar play of the C’s bigs, KG and Stiesma that carried the day. Jeff Teague was the best player of the game but it wasn’t enough for the injury depleted Hawks.

Bulls-Sixers #3

Man, I’m starting to feel sorry for the Bulls. I’m also regretting not talking myself into Sixers in seven. Bulls lost their actual best player to injury and it cost them the game this time. On the sixers side of the ball, Jrue Holidays did a bit of everything against the Bulls backup pgs. Hawes also took the opportunity to feast against the Bulls backup Centers.

I’m sensing a theme here and it’s bad news for Chicago.

This will not end well

Nuggets- Lakers #3

Hide the women and children because JaVale is coming and he’s got his mom coming with him. JaVale got player of the game and player of the night. The Nuggets finally put together the kind of game that I expected them too and made this one a series. They were helped by Kobe having one of his less than stellar nights. They were also significantly and inadvertantly aided by Bynum elbow that took out Al Harrington and severely limited Karl’s options.

I expect more of the same in game four and I think the key game will be game five particularly since I don’t see any way in hell that Denver gets a call in a game seven in LA.

This still looks like a six or seven game series with a home team closing out.

Let’s hope the weekend slate lives up to tonight.

-Arturo

P.S. The first post has links to all the boxscores for the playoffs

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