Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 Playoffs (5/5 and 5/6): Exits, Turning Points and delaying the inevitable

“There is nothing wrong with change, if it is in the right direction.” -Winston Churchill

The picture got a hell of a lot clearer this weekend. Some bowed ungracefully out. Some delayed the inevitable and some managed to seize the upper hand.

The big news is that the Champ is down.

 

Dallas learned that James Harden is very good. Here’s the top seasons for guards 22 and under ranked by win shares per 48. Harden only trails CP3. Yeah.

Let’s get to the boxscores and recaps.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. We are using New Wins Produced numbers. I am manually compiling them for the playoffs and Nerd Numbers is compiling them for the season and playoffs. There will be some drift but it’s good enough for horseshoes,hand grenades and tactical nuclear weapons.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Posession and Play stats:Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers, Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA,True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player.Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
    • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
    • Points over Par. This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the games point margin.

The weekend was long so you get everything in a poster.

or two:

And I’m going to steal from my twitter feed (@ArturoGalletti) for the recaps.

Pacers-Magic #4

The Pacers managed to get a 3-1 lead on the Superman less Magic. Congrats.

If you can’t put down a team with big baby as a primary offensive option, I can’t respect you as a contender.

Indiana will win the series. Indiana will get killed by the Heat.

Any series with Miami and either of these teams will feature a heavy amount of Eddie Curry.

Thunder-Mavs #4

When was the last time the defending champion got swept in round 1?

I don’t know. When was the last time a defending champ failed to resign their franchise center?

The Mavs sans Tyson were pretty much who they were in 2010. Deron Williams will not solve this problem.

Meanwhile, Harden continued his career of playoff dominance. He was clearly the Thunder MVP. I expect he and the thunder will kill their round 2 opposition.

This is not a career night for Harden. Harden will be doing this in meaningful basketball games for a long time.

Clippers-Grizzlies #4

Let’s pick up the Action with 10:40 to go in the game:

  • 71-69 Memphis 10:40 to go. Long 2 pt. Jumper alert for Memphis. Clips get ball back.
  • Whoops no. Jump ball and foul.
  • 73-69 and the clips run a set that ends in a Kenyon dunk. 73-71 Memphis.
  • Another Speights Long 2 pt. Jumper. Zbo fouls on the rebound. Bad theme for Memphis.
  • Bad clippers turnover on drive to hoop. Memphis Sets for Zbo on other end. First smart set in replay for Memphis. 75-71 Memphis
  • Another bad clippers possession into TO. Another Memphis iso Long 2 pt. Jumper possession. The y get rb and Gasol nails a jumper on the 2nd go around. 77-71
  • Foye jumper. Memphis 3 from Conley. Zbo bails them out on the boards. 78-73 Grizz.
  • Griffin just wiffs in the lane. Memphis in halfcourt. Griffin makes it up by drawing the charge on Gasol. I am hating the 12 Grizz in halfcourt.
  • Blake just wiffs again followed by a crazy steal sequence and another bad Memphis halfcourt poss ending in a Gay moonshot. Refs bail them out
  • Clippers keep attacking the basket on every possession and it pays off. Bledsoe layup followed by the Evans putback on the ft miss. 79-77
  • Memphis in halfcourt gets bailed out by refs . 3:49 . Gay on the line. 80-77. Important to point out that Vinnie is out coaching Hollins.
  • Everything LAC is doing is about five feet from hoop or from three. Foye ties it with a three. 80-80
  • Another Memphis possession that does not get within 10 feet of the hoop. Lac attacks bucket again. Charge call saves them.
  • Conley moonshot miss. CP3 bucket in paint. CP3 steal. CP3 drives and sets up Blake. All your bases belong to CP3. 84-80 LAC
  • Grizz set for Gay off balance jumper. CP3 bad iso. Conley moonshot. Mayo almost steal.Mayo foul. CP3 to the line. 86-80 LAC with 23 left.
  • Gay makes the first moonshot. Bledsoe and Evans make 1 of 4 fts. Gay makes another. LAC by one 9 ticks left.
  • Bledsoe is choking, somebody help him. Memphis hc set to the rescue and the clippers win.

Timeline over. What did we learn? Memphis is atrocious in 4th quarter play calling. LAC goes for high value offense. This is important.

Spurs-Jazz #3

This series is already over. The Spurs are good. Let’s all move on.

One relevant point is that Stephen Jackson has been way better with the Spurs. The reason? His shot selection is completely different with them. Poppovich is a very good coach.

Bulls-Sixers #4

Noah is the best bulls player. With him and Rose out and 76ers magically discovering their best lineup this becoming a cakewalk for the Sixers.

Particularly with Hawes and Iggy playing like superstars.

I really wish I’d picked the sixers.

Heat-Knicks #4

Fun stat: Carmelo Anthony teams without Chauncey Billups are 5-26 in playoffs.

Carmelo had his best possible game. At home.

And the Knicks won by two.

I expect it’ll be 5-27 very,very soon.

Celtics-Hawks #4

Pierce continued his domination of the Hawks. Rajon Rondo destroyed them. This one is over except to determine if it’s a gentleman’s sweep or it comes back to Boston.

Nuggets- Lakers #4

You know what happens when you give Gerge Karl options? He takes them. Even if they are no good.

George Karl teams have never upset anybody in the playoffs. Looks like that will remain true.

New rule: never pick George Karl as the underdog. Never, ever,ever.

-Arturo

P.S. The first post has links to all the boxscores for the playoffs

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