Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 Playoffs (5/7): Consistency


“Consistency is the foundation of virtue.” – Francis Bacon

The story for me was one of Consistency.

We receive constant stimulation and information in our day to day lives. To manage that overwhelming amount of input  our brain puts up filters on what sensory information it deals with. We focus on new stimuli, on changes, on differences. So much so in fact that the brain has the capacity to erase that which remains consistent. This is called the Troxler Effect, or Troxler Fading. We lose sight of what’s always there and see things that are not.


If you focus on the red dot below, after less than thirty seconds, the circle should just fade away.

Your brain is erasing that which is consistent. It really shouldn’t, because that fact that the  Spurs are consistently good should not blind you to the fact that this year they are in fact great.

Let’s get to the boxscores and recaps. There will be a surprise as well.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. We are using New Wins Produced numbers. I am manually compiling them for the playoffs and Nerd Numbers is compiling them for the season and playoffs. There will be some drift but it’s good enough for horseshoes,hand grenades and tactical nuclear weapons.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
    • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
    • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Posession and Play stats:Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers, Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA,True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player.Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
    • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
    • Points over Par. This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the games point margin.

Spurs-Jazz #4

The Jazz bigs showed up for once in this Series. It didn’t really matter as the Jazz guards sunk them.  The depth and breadth of talent for San Antonio carried the day here as they closed the series on the Jazz.

They are good and they are deep. They have homecourt. They have playoff experience. They should be favored to win it all.

Clippers-Grizzlies #4

There’s a reason you have Chris Paul on your team and it’s the end of games like this. At this point we know that Memphis is going to go to their atrocious Isolation Jumper 10 feet away from the basket at least halfcourt set with a heavy dash of Heroball and the Clipps will keep running it to the hoop thru CP3. I think option 2 is a very good idea. Mike Conley was very good for the Grizzlies but he was not helped by his coach out there.

Blake and Bledsoe were also great but special mention has to go to the human vaccumn cleaner Reggie Evans who gave a master class in boxing out and rebounding.

Either of these teams will get destroyed by the Spurs.

I did promise something extra right?

That’s every player in the playoffs so far with more 48 minutes per game. The one reason I’m not 100% on San Antonio is at the top of that list. James Harden looks to be taking this over.

That Spurs-Thunder series is going to be fun to watch.


P.S. The first post has links to all the boxscores for the playoffs

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