“Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.” – William Shakespeare from Macbeth
I got into a heated twitter debate the other day. The reason behind it was the Chris Bosh injury.
Specifically it was my belief that Bosh being out and LBJ playing at the 4 makes Miami more not less likely to win. Why you ask?
To win or contend for a championship a team must:
- Win 52 or more games (or 42 this year)
- Have two star points (either >2 Stars, > Star + Superstar or > 2 Superstars) in your Playoff Top 6. A star is >2.5 Point over Par per 48 player, a Superstar is a >5.0 Point over Par per 48 player.
- Have at least one > +1 Point over Par per 48 player who plays PF or Center in your Playoff Top 6 (This is the Suns Corollary)
- A superstar puts you in the conversation if you can make it into the playoffs and surround him with talent (i.e no duds) in the top 6 (This is the Hakeem Factor).
You need a quality big to win it all and Miami seemed to be all out this year. They have the wins and the stars but the quality of the bigs in their rotation has been the fly in the ointment with this team (as it was last year).
But a funny thing happens when you take out Chris Bosh.
Moving the MVP to power Forward makes everything better. The rotation is better with Lebron at 4. We know nobody’s won with 4/5s as bad as Miami in their top 6. Lebron at the 4 changes that. Add in the possibility of Joel Anthony sneaking into the top half of the rotation and it could become even better.
Nevermind, the idea of James on the block and Wade at the top of the key is frightening. As a point of reference, Miami was +15 in 20 minutes with lineups using LeBron James at power forward.
So if I try to guess what Pat Riley is saying to Chris right now it goes something like this: “No,Chris, take your time, we don’t want you risking your future. we’ll make due. Somehow”