Fanservice: Opponent Adjusted Wins Produced for Round 1

I sometimes take requests.

Reader Tundra Gator commented:

“Nobody has yet answered my question about how Bynum could be considered the most valuable Laker in the Nuggets series. He had a couple of good games but more terrible games in which he didn’t care on the defensive end and allowed numerous (that’s being too conservative, maybe plethora?) defensive breakdowns due to his laziness on defense.”

My answer for this is Opponent Adjusted Wins Produced. The difference is that for regular Wins Produced we assume that you are facing average opposition and all the adjustment are treated like team activities . This is for the most part a good approximation.

The error on it increases when we have a small sample size or an egregiously bad defender. I’m looking at you Bynum.

One of the ways we attack this is by working out opponent adjusted stats. In the simplest terms, I’m calculating a player’s numbers against the direct opposition he’s facing. So Opponent adjusted Points over Par is how many points better or worse than the opposition you were.

Opponent adjusted looks at how much you outplayed or got outplayed by the other guy.

And by Team:

And given how horrible the Jazz guards were, We have a new First round MVP in Tony Parker.


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