The Wins Produced formula works on a few key factors:
- It looks at how the boxscore stats for each player translates into wins.
- It compares a player against how an average player at their given position performs
We usually display this as a single number. However, the truth is it is broken down much finer. A player can be good in a variety of ways. The key is that they have to be better than average at one or more things. Additionally, if they are bad in certain areas, it has to balance out with what they are good at. For example, Dwight Howard is terrible at free throw shooting and costs his team wins thanks to it. However, his scoring from the floor, killer rebounding and blocking more than compensate. With that said, I thought it would be fun to break down which players earned the most wins in each category. Here goes!
Assists: Steve Nash with +6.2 Wins Produced over Par
Brief explanation: Wins Produced looks at how many assists per minute a player gets while on the floor and credits them for a portion of a two pointer based on their team mates shots. It also examines how well the player’s team mates assist per minute. If your team is bad at assisting you get a boost, if they are good at assisting you drop.
Is this even a surprise? Nash dished out more than half the assists on his team! He also averaged a ridiculous 16.3 assists per 48 minutes. His turnover rate hurt him a little but nowhere near enough to combat his sheer awesomeness in passing. Expect Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol to be very happy next season.
Two Point Shooting: Tyson Chandler with +4.6 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: For this I took the total number of points scored by two point shots and the total number of misses from two point shots. I added up the win value for the points and subtracted the win value for the misses. I call it Net Two Point Wins.
Tyson Chandler was shooting 68% from the field. Basically ever three shots he took, two went in. That’s insane! He was the top earner in this category. I want to stress that players have a quota, so to speak, in the Wins Produced system. To earn wins Chandler had to “Earn” as many points from two point shooting at the average center. After that he started collecting wins. It’s bizarre to think that Chandler’s key contribution this season was offense, but it was. And in terms of the Usage Argument, I have trouble believe Chandler couldn’t miss just as well as Melo with more shots.
Free Throw Shooting: Kevin Durant with +4.2 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: For this I took the total number of points scored by free throws and the total number of missed free throws. I added up the win value for the points and subtracted the win value for the misses. I call it Net Free Throw Wins.
Kevin Durant was the most potent scorer last season. He was awesome from the line, from two and from three. His biggest impact was from the free throw line though. This isn’t a surprise as giving the best offensive player in the game free open shots is never a good idea and that’s exactly what free throws are.
Offensive Rebounds: DeMarcus Cousins with +3.7 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: This one’s pretty simple. Look at the total number of offensive rebounds a player pulls down and translate those into wins.
He can’t shoot and he’s not a star. That said, he’s very good at grabbing rebounds off the glass. He’s still young and he ended the season decently. We’ll see if he can turn it around.
Three Point Shooting: Steve Novak with +3.4 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: For this I took the total number of points scored by three pointers and the total number of missed three pointers. I added up the win value for the points and subtracted the win value for the misses. I call it Net Three Point Wins.
The Knicks have two of the best offensive players in the game and neither one of them is Melo or Amare. Novak almost made a three pointer for every two he took. That’s an amazing clip. The Knicks should be glad they have him back. Like Chandler though, I wonder if he might benefit from a few more looks a game.
Blocks: Serge Ibaka with +3.5 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: This one’s pretty simple. Look at the total number of blocks a player pulls down and translate those into wins.
No surprise here. Ibaka is a blocking machine. If Ibaka played 36 minutes a game, he’d pull down almost five blocks. That leads to a very important question: why don’t the Thunder play him more minutes?
Defensive Rebounds: Dwight Howard with + 3.2 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: For this one we take the total number of defensive rebounds a player gets and translate those to wins. However, we then check out how many defensive rebounds they got that likely would have gone to a team mate (it’s around half) and deduct those from the total.
No surprises here either. Dwight Howard is killer on the glass. Ibaka took blocking from him, but the former defensive player of year holds onto his defensive rebounds crown.
Steals: Chris Paul with +2.3 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: Another simple one, take the total number of steals and translate to wins.
Anyone surprised? Of course not. Chris Paul does almost everything well. His lock down defense is pretty killer and he’s good at getting the ball for his team.
Turn Overs: Jodie Meeks with +2.0 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: Take the total number of turnovers and translate to wins. To explain how a player can “earn” wins this way, it works out like this. A player is expected to turn the ball over some amount while being on the court. If they can keep the ball more often though, it’s an added benefit to their team.
Jodie Meeks doesn’t pass that much. He does put up over seven shots a game though, meaning he does handle the ball. At fewer than half a turnover a game, he’s benefiting his team by ensuring they keep the ball. Not the most glamorous or noticed of skills but useful.
Personal Fouls: Pau Gasol with +1.8 Wins Produced over Par
Brief Explanation: We estimate the total number of free throws given up based on the player’s fouls. Like turnovers we expect some level of fouling. If a player keeps their fouling under control, they help the team.
Paul Gasol has never been thought of as a defensive nightmare. That said, there is something good about his defense. He doesn’t foul a lot. Fouling gets players to the line and as Durant showed us, that can really hurt. Gasol does other stuff too but be impressed at his ability to not foul!
A few names hopped out, but for the most part this list contained some bona-fied stars that do what they do best. Hope you enjoyed it.
Last note: Wins Produced adds back in the average for each player based on their minutes played. For the numbers above, I did not. So Nash is earning +6 wins above what an average point guard would get you, just to clarify.