NBA Win Predictions for 2012-13 Volume 2: The Hand-Crafted edition

“If I could explain it to the average person, I wouldn’t have been worth the Nobel Prize.”

― Richard P. Feynman

Remember how I said I was going to get it wrong? Yesterday I gave you the full win projections for the year. Now I wrote some code to automate the minute projection, some of you raised some flags as to the actual results. I reviewed them and they were good.

So guess what? I did it all over again.

Let’s walk thru it first. First I redid the full depth chart with the new algorithm.

Then I redid the full player projection:

I did six separate projections.They are listed below:

1. Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers.
2. Last Years Wins Shares per 48 numbers (calculated by me using the instruction on Basketball on Paper).
3. Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers adjusted for new position adjustments.
4. The weighted averages of the last three years of Wins Produced per 48 numbers.
5. The weighted averages of the last three years of Wins Produced per 48 numbers incorporating the age model.
6. Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers adjusted for new position adjustments taking into account the preseason.

Team by team looks like so:

Then  I did the  the team projection again.

The 2012-13 Projection v2
Team	Conference	Last Year	Composite Projection	Change	Seed
New York Knicks	East	44.7	56.53	11.8	1
Miami Heat	East	57.2	56.12	-1.0	2
Atlanta Hawks	East	49.7	46.42	-3.3	3
Chicago Bulls	East	62.1	46.09	-16.0	4
Milwaukee Bucks	East	38.5	43.10	4.6	5
Boston Celtics	East	48.5	42.14	-6.3	6
Indiana Pacers	East	52.2	41.55	-10.6	7
Philadelphia 76ers	East	43.5	40.65	-2.8	8
Toronto Raptors	East	28.6	37.65	9.1	9
Washington Wizards	East	24.8	34.30	9.5	10
Brooklyn Nets	East	27.3	32.41	5.1	11
Cleveland Cavaliers	East	26.1	28.73	2.6	12
Orlando Magic	East	46.0	27.24	-18.7	13
Detroit Pistons	East	31.1	24.47	-6.6	14
Charlotte Bobcats	East	8.7	19.34	10.6	15
Team	Conference	Last Year	Composite Projection	Change	Seed
San Antonio Spurs	West	62.1	56.97	-5.2	1
Denver Nuggets	West	47.2	55.67	8.5	2
Oklahoma City Thunder	West	58.4	52.20	-6.2	3
Minnesota Timberwolves	West	32.3	52.17	19.9	4
Los Angeles Clippers	West	49.7	49.68	0.0	5
Los Angeles Lakers	West	50.9	47.56	-3.4	6
Memphis Grizzlies	West	50.9	45.43	-5.5	7
New Orleans Hornets	West	26.1	44.14	18.0	8
Utah Jazz	West	44.7	42.90	-1.8	9
Houston Rockets	West	42.2	40.92	-1.3	10
Portland Trail Blazers	West	34.8	39.00	4.2	11
Golden State Warriors	West	28.6	37.46	8.9	12
Dallas Mavericks	West	44.7	32.58	-12.1	13
Phoenix Suns	West	41.0	30.22	-10.8	14
Sacramento Kings	West	27.3	26.34	-1.0	15

The big changes are the Knicks slipping past the Heat for the #1 seed in the east and the Spurs rising past Denver and OKC to number 1 in the west. The Bucks jump the Celtics and Pacers for the fourth seed to round out the playoff picture in the East. In the West, the Hornets leap past the Jazz and seize the honor of making the Spurs look extremely good in Round 1 of the western playoffs.

As a final bonus, like before here’s the modified playoff predictions:

You’ll note that I added in two adjustments. One is for playoff experience and the ability to draw calls. The other is for clear coaching mismatches. At this point it’s a little back of the envelope but I will develop this more before the playoffs.

The model likes the Lakers over the Thunder as the only upset in round #1, holds to form in Round 2, likes the Heat in an “upset” over the Knicks in the Eastarn Conference Finals (the Heat could easily have homecourt in this series and would be favored heavily either way). It likes San Antonio to undress George Karl in the Western Conference Finals and to win the Finals regardless of who has the homecourt advantage.

The most interesting to note is that it really looks like San Antonio, Miami, Denver and the field as of right now. With the difference between San Antonio and Miami being miniscule.

-Arturo