NBA Win Predictions for 2012-13 Volume 2: The Hand-Crafted edition

“If I could explain it to the average person, I wouldn’t have been worth the Nobel Prize.”

― Richard P. Feynman

Remember how I said I was going to get it wrong? Yesterday I gave you the full win projections for the year. Now I wrote some code to automate the minute projection, some of you raised some flags as to the actual results. I reviewed them and they were good.

So guess what? I did it all over again.

Let’s walk thru it first. First I redid the full depth chart with the new algorithm.

Then I redid the full player projection:

I did six separate projections.They are listed below:

  1. Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers.
  2. Last Years Wins Shares per 48 numbers (calculated by me using the instruction on Basketball on Paper).
  3. Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers adjusted for new position adjustments.
  4. The weighted averages of the last three years of Wins Produced per 48 numbers.
  5. The weighted averages of the last three years of Wins Produced per 48 numbers incorporating the age model.
  6. Last Years Wins Produced per 48 numbers adjusted for new position adjustments taking into account the preseason.

Team by team looks like so:

Then  I did the  the team projection again.

The 2012-13 Projection v2
Team Conference Last Year Composite Projection Change Seed
New York Knicks East 44.7 56.53 11.8 1
Miami Heat East 57.2 56.12 -1.0 2
Atlanta Hawks East 49.7 46.42 -3.3 3
Chicago Bulls East 62.1 46.09 -16.0 4
Milwaukee Bucks East 38.5 43.10 4.6 5
Boston Celtics East 48.5 42.14 -6.3 6
Indiana Pacers East 52.2 41.55 -10.6 7
Philadelphia 76ers East 43.5 40.65 -2.8 8
Toronto Raptors East 28.6 37.65 9.1 9
Washington Wizards East 24.8 34.30 9.5 10
Brooklyn Nets East 27.3 32.41 5.1 11
Cleveland Cavaliers East 26.1 28.73 2.6 12
Orlando Magic East 46.0 27.24 -18.7 13
Detroit Pistons East 31.1 24.47 -6.6 14
Charlotte Bobcats East 8.7 19.34 10.6 15
Team Conference Last Year Composite Projection Change Seed
San Antonio Spurs West 62.1 56.97 -5.2 1
Denver Nuggets West 47.2 55.67 8.5 2
Oklahoma City Thunder West 58.4 52.20 -6.2 3
Minnesota Timberwolves West 32.3 52.17 19.9 4
Los Angeles Clippers West 49.7 49.68 0.0 5
Los Angeles Lakers West 50.9 47.56 -3.4 6
Memphis Grizzlies West 50.9 45.43 -5.5 7
New Orleans Hornets West 26.1 44.14 18.0 8
Utah Jazz West 44.7 42.90 -1.8 9
Houston Rockets West 42.2 40.92 -1.3 10
Portland Trail Blazers West 34.8 39.00 4.2 11
Golden State Warriors West 28.6 37.46 8.9 12
Dallas Mavericks West 44.7 32.58 -12.1 13
Phoenix Suns West 41.0 30.22 -10.8 14
Sacramento Kings West 27.3 26.34 -1.0 15

The big changes are the Knicks slipping past the Heat for the #1 seed in the east and the Spurs rising past Denver and OKC to number 1 in the west. The Bucks jump the Celtics and Pacers for the fourth seed to round out the playoff picture in the East. In the West, the Hornets leap past the Jazz and seize the honor of making the Spurs look extremely good in Round 1 of the western playoffs.

As a final bonus, like before here’s the modified playoff predictions:

You’ll note that I added in two adjustments. One is for playoff experience and the ability to draw calls. The other is for clear coaching mismatches. At this point it’s a little back of the envelope but I will develop this more before the playoffs.

The model likes the Lakers over the Thunder as the only upset in round #1, holds to form in Round 2, likes the Heat in an “upset” over the Knicks in the Eastarn Conference Finals (the Heat could easily have homecourt in this series and would be favored heavily either way). It likes San Antonio to undress George Karl in the Western Conference Finals and to win the Finals regardless of who has the homecourt advantage.

The most interesting to note is that it really looks like San Antonio, Miami, Denver and the field as of right now. With the difference between San Antonio and Miami being miniscule.

This is a much better feeling than yesterday. Basketball is after all a Big Boy game.



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