Does Defense Win Championships?
The Lakers decision to sign Mike D’Antoni was questioned by a few. Was it a way to spite the Zen Master for trying to play hardball? Was it to get Steve Nash out of his funk? Regardless of the answer, it would appear that the Lakers have decided to go against the wisdom that defense wins championships. Even when he was leading 55+ win teams in Phoenix, his teams were not known for defense (and the stats back this up)
For fun, here’s a rundown of D’Antoni’s teams offensive and defensive ratings (points earned per 100 possessions and points given up per 100 possessions)
| Season | Team | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Denver | 103.1 (12th) | 110.4 (29th) |
| 2004 | Phoenix | 101.4 (21st) | 105.5 (24th) |
| 2005 | Phoenix | 114.5 (1st) | 107.1 (17th) |
| 2006 | Phoenix | 111.5 (2nd) | 105.8 (16th) |
| 2007 | Phoenix | 113.9 (1st) | 106.4 (13th) |
| 2008 | Phoenix | 113.3 (2nd) | 108.1 (16th) |
| 2009 | New York | 108.1 (17th) | 110.8 (23rd) |
| 2010 | New York | 107.6 (17th) | 111.6 (27th) |
| 2011 | New York | 110.9 (7th) | 110.1 (22nd) |
| 2012* | New York | 104.4 (17th) | 101.0 (5th) |
In his entire career the only season D’Antoni ever saw a team with a good defense is the year he was fired. I’ll toe the line saying that he never had a fully defensive squad. The Laker team he inherited was 13th in Defensive Rating last season and is currently 18th in the league. Of course, as New York showed with Tyson Chandler, one player can make the difference. Dwight Howard, as we’ll see, has anchored some top defenses. It’s possible D’Antoni’s history of poor defenses may end this season.
Let’s ask the question though, if the Lakers don’t have a good defense, do they stand a shot at a title? Let’s take a look at teams that made it to the finals over the last several decades. Numbers from Basketball-Reference
2010′s Title Rundowns
| Season | Champ | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) | Runner Up | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Miami | 106.6 (8th) | 100.2 (4th) | Oklahoma City | 109.8 (2nd) | 103.2 (11th) |
| 2011 | Dallas | 109.7 (8th) | 105.0 (8th) | Miami | 111.7 (3rd) | 103.5 (5th) |
| 2010 | Los Angeles | 108.8 (11th) | 103.7 (4th) | Boston | 107.7 (15th) | 103.8 (5th) |
2000′s Title Rundowns
| Season | Champ | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) | Runner Up | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Los Angeles | 112.8 (3rd) | 104.7 (6th) | Orlando | 109.2 (11th) | 101.9 (1st) |
| 2008 | Boston | 110.2 (10th) | 98.9 (1st) | Los Angeles | 113.0 (3rd) | 105.5 (5th) |
| 2007 | San Antonio | 109.2 (5th) | 99.9 (2nd) | Cleveland | 105.5 (18th) | 101.3 (4th) |
| 2006 | Miami | 108.7 (7th) | 104.5 (9th) | Dallas | 111.8 (1st) | 105.0 (11th) |
| 2005 | San Antonio | 107.5 (8th) | 98.8 (1st) | Detroit | 105.6 (17th) | 101.2 (3rd) |
| 2004 | Detroit | 102.0 (18th) | 95.4 (2nd) | Los Angeles | 105.5 (6th) | 101.3 (8th) |
| 2003 | San Antonio | 105.6 (7th) | 99.7 (3rd) | New Jersey | 103.8 (18th) | 98.1 (1st) |
| 2002 | Los Angeles | 109.4 (2nd) | 92.1 (6th) | New Jersey | 104.0 (17th) | 99.5 (1st) |
| 2001 | Los Angeles | 108.4 (2nd) | 104.8 (21st) | Philadelphia | 103.6 (13th) | 98.9 (5th) |
| 2000 | Los Angeles | 107.3 (5th) | 98.2 (1st) | Indiana | 108.5 (1st) | 103.6 (13th) |
1990′s Title Rundowns
| Season | Champ | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) | Runner Up | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | San Antonio | 104.0 (11th) | 95.0 (1st) | New York | 98.6 (26th) | 97,5 (4th) |
| 1998 | Chicago | 107.7 (9th) | 99.8 (3rd) | Utah Jazz | 112.7 (1st) | 105.4 (17th) |
| 1997 | Chicago | 114.4 (1st) | 102.4 (4th) | Utah Jazz | 113.6 (2nd) | 104.0 (9th) |
| 1996 | Chicago | 115.2 (1st) | 101.8 (1st) | Seattle | 110.3 (8th) | 102.1 (2nd) |
| 1995 | Houston | 109.7 (7th) | 107.4 (12th) | Orlando | 115.1 (1st) | 107.8 (13th) |
| 1994 | Houston | 105.9 (15th) | 101.4 (2nd) | New York | 105.7 (16th) | 98.2 (1st) |
| 1993 | Chicago | 112.9 (2nd) | 106.1 (7th) | Phoenix | 113.3 (1st) | 106.7 (9th) |
| 1992 | Chicago | 115.5 (1st) | 104.5 (4th) | Portland | 111.4 (7th) | 104.2 (3rd) |
| 1991 | Chicago | 114.6 (1st) | 105.2 (7th) | Los Angeles | 112.1 (5th) | 105.0 (5th) |
| 1990 | Detroit | 109.9 (11th) | 103.5 (2nd) | Portland | 110.5 (9th) | 104.4 (4th) |
1980′s Title Rundowns
| Season | Champ | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) | Runner Up | ORating (Rank) | DRating (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | Detroit | 110.8 (7th) | 104.7 (3rd) | Los Angeles | 113.8 (1st) | 106.7 (7th) |
| 1988 | Los Angeles | 113.1 (2nd) | 107.3 (9th) | Detroit | 110.5 (6th) | 105.3 (2nd) |
| 1987 | Los Angeles | 115.6 (1st) | 106.5 (7th) | Boston | 113.5 (3rd) | 106.8 (9th) |
| 1986 | Boston | 111.8 (3rd) | 102.6 (1st) | Houston | 110.1 (5th) | 107.6 (14th) |
| 1985 | Los Angeles | 114.1 (1st) | 107.0 (7th) | Boston | 112.8 (2nd) | 106.3 (5th) |
| 1984 | Boston | 110.9 (6th) | 104.4 (3rd) | Los Angeles | 110.9 (5th) | 107.3 (9th) |
| 1983 | Philadelphia | 108.3 (5th) | 100.9 (5th) | Los Angeles | 110.5 (1st) | 105.2 (13th) |
| 1982 | Los Angeles | 110.2 (2nd) | 105.5 (10th) | Philadelphia | 109.6 (5th) | 103.9 (7th) |
| 1981 | Boston Celtics | 108.4 (5th) | 102.6 (4th) | Houston | 107.0 (9th) | 106.7 (16th) |
| 1980 | Los Angeles | 109.5 (1st) | 103.9 (9th) | Philadelphia | 105.0 (13th) | 101.0 (1st) |
The prognosis is a bit interesting. Of our champions 20 out of 33 of them had a top five defense. In fact, all but two had a top ten defense (the 1995 Houston Rockets and the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers) We’re a little more forgiving to runner ups, 18 out of 33 of them had a top five defense, while 25 out of 33 had a top 10 defense. The full explanation is a bit more simple though.
The key to winning in the NBA is point differential. In fact, that’s the basis Wins Produced is based on. If we look at how many points our team score on offense vs. how many they give up on defense, we get a good estimate of how good of a team we have. To win the title requires being a good team. As such, a team needs to be good at offense, defense or both.
And in fact, that’s what we see. 26 out of our 33 title teams were top 10 in both defense AND offense (with the 1996 Chicago Bulls amazingly being number one in both) It’s a bit further down for runner-ups. Only 15 out of 33 were top 10 in both offense in defense. However, across all of our teams, every single one of them was top 10 in either offense or defense. (Which is how teams like the 2004 Pistons and 2001 Lakers still won despite being poor at offense and defense respectively)
Right now the Lakers are, in fact, 6th in the league in offense. They have a bona fied star and their record is actually worse than their stats suggest. It’s possible if the Lakers behind Dwight Howard rebound then D’Antoni could finally win a title and have a top defense. Or, if they somehow imitate the 2001 season, they might even do it with a terrible defense. That said, I’d still have sided with Phil Jackson
-Dre