Does Defense Win Championships?

The Lakers decision to sign Mike D’Antoni was questioned by a few. Was it a way to spite the Zen Master for trying to play hardball? Was it to get Steve Nash out of his funk? Regardless of the answer, it would appear that the Lakers have decided to go against the wisdom that defense wins championships. Even when he was leading 55+ win teams in Phoenix, his teams were not known for defense (and the stats back this up)

For fun, here’s a rundown of D’Antoni’s teams offensive and defensive ratings (points earned per 100 possessions and points given up per 100 possessions)

Season	Team	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)
1999	Denver	103.1 (12th)	110.4 (29th)
2004	Phoenix	101.4 (21st)	105.5 (24th)
2005	Phoenix	114.5 (1st)	107.1 (17th)
2006	Phoenix	111.5 (2nd)	105.8 (16th)
2007	Phoenix	113.9 (1st)	106.4 (13th)
2008	Phoenix	113.3 (2nd)	108.1 (16th)
2009	New York	108.1 (17th)	110.8 (23rd)
2010	New York	107.6 (17th)	111.6 (27th)
2011	New York	110.9 (7th)	110.1 (22nd)
2012*	New York	104.4 (17th)	101.0 (5th)

In his entire career the only season D’Antoni ever saw a team with a good defense is the year he was fired. I’ll toe the line saying that he never had a fully defensive squad. The Laker team he inherited was 13th in Defensive Rating last season and is currently 18th in the league. Of course, as New York showed with Tyson Chandler, one player can make the difference. Dwight Howard, as we’ll see, has anchored some top defenses. It’s possible D’Antoni’s history of poor defenses may end this season.

Let’s ask the question though, if the Lakers don’t have a good defense, do they stand a shot at a title? Let’s take a look at teams that made it to the finals over the last several decades. Numbers from Basketball-Reference

2010′s Title Rundowns

Season	Champ	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)	Runner Up	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)
2012	Miami	106.6 (8th)	100.2 (4th)	Oklahoma City	109.8 (2nd)	103.2 (11th)
2011	Dallas	109.7 (8th)	105.0 (8th)	Miami	111.7 (3rd)	103.5 (5th)
2010	Los Angeles	108.8 (11th)	103.7 (4th)	Boston	107.7 (15th)	103.8 (5th)

2000′s Title Rundowns

Season	Champ	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)	Runner Up	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)
2009	Los Angeles	112.8 (3rd)	104.7 (6th)	Orlando	109.2 (11th)	101.9 (1st)
2008	Boston	110.2 (10th)	98.9 (1st)	Los Angeles	113.0 (3rd)	105.5 (5th)
2007	San Antonio	109.2 (5th)	99.9 (2nd)	Cleveland	105.5 (18th)	101.3 (4th)
2006	Miami	108.7 (7th)	104.5 (9th)	Dallas	111.8 (1st)	105.0 (11th)
2005	San Antonio	107.5 (8th)	98.8 (1st)	Detroit	105.6 (17th)	101.2 (3rd)
2004	Detroit	102.0 (18th)	95.4 (2nd)	Los Angeles	105.5 (6th)	101.3 (8th)
2003	San Antonio	105.6 (7th)	99.7 (3rd)	New Jersey	103.8 (18th)	98.1 (1st)
2002	Los Angeles	109.4 (2nd)	92.1 (6th)	New Jersey	104.0 (17th)	99.5 (1st)
2001	Los Angeles	108.4 (2nd)	104.8 (21st)	Philadelphia	103.6 (13th)	98.9 (5th)
2000	Los Angeles	107.3 (5th)	98.2 (1st)	Indiana	108.5 (1st)	103.6 (13th)

1990′s Title Rundowns

Season	Champ	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)	Runner Up	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)
1999	San Antonio	104.0 (11th)	95.0 (1st)	New York	98.6 (26th)	97,5 (4th)
1998	Chicago	107.7 (9th)	99.8 (3rd)	Utah Jazz	112.7 (1st)	105.4 (17th)
1997	Chicago	114.4 (1st)	102.4 (4th)	Utah Jazz	113.6 (2nd)	104.0 (9th)
1996	Chicago	115.2 (1st)	101.8 (1st)	Seattle	110.3 (8th)	102.1 (2nd)
1995	Houston	109.7 (7th)	107.4 (12th)	Orlando	115.1 (1st)	107.8 (13th)
1994	Houston	105.9 (15th)	101.4 (2nd)	New York	105.7 (16th)	98.2 (1st)
1993	Chicago	112.9 (2nd)	106.1 (7th)	Phoenix	113.3 (1st)	106.7 (9th)
1992	Chicago	115.5 (1st)	104.5 (4th)	Portland	111.4 (7th)	104.2 (3rd)
1991	Chicago	114.6 (1st)	105.2 (7th)	Los Angeles	112.1 (5th)	105.0 (5th)
1990	Detroit	109.9 (11th)	103.5 (2nd)	Portland	110.5 (9th)	104.4 (4th)

1980′s Title Rundowns

Season	Champ	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)	Runner Up	ORating (Rank)	DRating (Rank)
1989	Detroit	110.8 (7th)	104.7 (3rd)	Los Angeles	113.8 (1st)	106.7 (7th)
1988	Los Angeles	113.1 (2nd)	107.3 (9th)	Detroit	110.5 (6th)	105.3 (2nd)
1987	Los Angeles	115.6 (1st)	106.5 (7th)	Boston	113.5 (3rd)	106.8 (9th)
1986	Boston	111.8 (3rd)	102.6 (1st)	Houston	110.1 (5th)	107.6 (14th)
1985	Los Angeles	114.1 (1st)	107.0 (7th)	Boston	112.8 (2nd)	106.3 (5th)
1984	Boston	110.9 (6th)	104.4 (3rd)	Los Angeles	110.9 (5th)	107.3 (9th)
1983	Philadelphia	108.3 (5th)	100.9 (5th)	Los Angeles	110.5 (1st)	105.2 (13th)
1982	Los Angeles	110.2 (2nd)	105.5 (10th)	Philadelphia	109.6 (5th)	103.9 (7th)
1981	Boston Celtics	108.4 (5th)	102.6 (4th)	Houston	107.0 (9th)	106.7 (16th)
1980	Los Angeles	109.5 (1st)	103.9 (9th)	Philadelphia	105.0 (13th)	101.0 (1st)

The prognosis is a bit interesting. Of our champions 20 out of 33 of them had a top five defense. In fact, all but two had a top ten defense (the 1995 Houston Rockets and the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers) We’re a little more forgiving to runner ups, 18 out of 33 of them had a top five defense, while 25 out of 33 had a top 10 defense. The full explanation is a bit more simple though.

The key to winning in the NBA is point differential. In fact, that’s the basis Wins Produced is based on. If we look at how many points our team score on offense vs. how many they give up on defense, we get a good estimate of how good of a team we have. To win the title requires being a good team. As such, a team needs to be good at offense, defense or both.

And in fact, that’s what we see. 26 out of our 33 title teams were top 10 in both defense AND offense (with the 1996 Chicago Bulls amazingly being number one in both) It’s a bit further down for runner-ups. Only 15 out of 33 were top 10 in both offense in defense. However, across all of our teams, every single one of them was top 10 in either offense or defense. (Which is how teams like the 2004 Pistons and 2001 Lakers still won despite being poor at offense and defense respectively)

Right now the Lakers are, in fact, 6th in the league in offense. They have a bona fied star and their record is actually worse than their stats suggest. It’s possible if the Lakers behind Dwight Howard rebound then D’Antoni could finally win a title and have a top defense. Or, if they somehow imitate the 2001 season, they might even do it with a terrible defense. That said, I’d still have sided with Phil Jackson

-Dre

18 Responses to "Does Defense Win Championships?"

GS says:

November 13, 2012 at 3:14 am

Something which I think gets mostly overlooked is the benefits a good defense can have on a teams offense and vice versa. For example, a team which forces misses and turnovers will generally get easier opportunities to score than if they are inbounding the ball from made baskets by the other team. I imagine it would be very difficult to measure exactly how much effect a teams defense has on it’s offense but I think it’s something to consider when you look at teams only winning championships if they are good at both. I don’t think it’s just because they are good at both offense and defense in isolation, I think there is a relationship between the two that is perhaps underestimated.
Nathan Baker says:

November 13, 2012 at 9:00 am

I don’t think you can just look at PPG surrendered to evaluate the D. I think you have to look at points per possession. For instance, in 2008 the Suns were 25th in points surrendered, and 30th in FGA allowed. You would have to look at Points / FGA + FTA*.44 – Opponents O Reb
Andres Alvarez says:

November 13, 2012 at 10:00 am

Nathan,
Good point, and one we agree with! The numbers cited are Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html) which are points per 100 possessions and points surrendered per 100 possessions. And this is the same logic Wins Produced is built on (http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/)
Andres Alvarez says:

November 13, 2012 at 10:03 am

GS,
It’s an interesting question to be sure. In fact, I looked just at title teams, it would be interesting to check both ways (does a good defense imply a good offense and the inverse) Some of the logic makes sense. If my defense is good and I get the ball before the opponent is set, I should have an easier time scoring (unless I’m the Grizzlies, see Arturo’s great work http://wagesofwins.com/2012/11/12/breaking-down-the-2012-nba-offenses-looking-for-floor-stretch/) and if my offense is good then the ball goes in the hoop, I can set my D and the opponent doesn’t get easy buckets (fast breaks, etc.)

I’ll have to look into that more!
Nathan Baker says:

November 13, 2012 at 10:13 am

Haha, whoops!
Statmandu (@lovethoseknicks) says:

November 13, 2012 at 10:22 am

IMO, the issue with D’Antoni and defense is generally misunderstood. You’ve addressed the biggest misunderstanding by using defensive efficiency instead of PPG allowed to measure those good Suns teams.

The other is the players he wants on his team.

It’s pretty darn rare to find a player that plays both offense and defense at a very high level. Most excel at one and you hope they are adequate at the other.

Some coaches focus on players that excel on defense and build truly superior defensive teams that struggle to score (chicago). Some focus on offense and get the opposite result. (some are more balanced)

Given a choice between 2 players with equal overall value, D’Antoni will almost always choose the better offensive player. It’s not that he can’t coach defense. It’s that his teams are loaded with offense oriented players that fit well together. He’s never had a two way guy like Howard in the middle protecting Nash. He had Amare (a first class matador). In NY he had David Lee (who is also a poor defender and very undersized). If Metta and Kobe can still stay with all the young guns, the defense in LA will be fine. If not, it won’t be D’Antoni’s fault.
Andres Alvarez says:

November 13, 2012 at 10:26 am

Stat,
Can’t say I disagree (although possible Kobe and Metta slip a bit on D due to age) the Knicks had a good D and D’Antoni was there for most of the season. Will Fields and Chandler it was arguably first season he had defensive pieces. And like I mentioned, he ended up getting fired. Maybe the powers that be in basketball can’t allow D’Antoni to have a top 5 D :)
Jon C (@JonCBK) says:

November 13, 2012 at 12:20 pm

I’ve always liked D’Antoni as a coach, but my regard for him took a hard hit last season with the Knicks. His complete inability to recognize that JLin was better than Tony Douglas and Mike Bibby until finally his hand was forced by JLin’s triple double in a D-league game and impending contract deadline, is frankly, in excusable. Maybe that can be explained by the fact that Lin gives you decent boards and great steals from the guard position, and so projects to be a “defensive” player. But what explains not playing Novak? These were serious misses in the most important part of a coaches job requirement, minutes allocation.
At least the Lakers have lots of big names and it should be easy enough to figure out who to play.
Steven says:

November 13, 2012 at 1:23 pm

@jonc

You really think a coach like d’antoni wouldn’t recognize his best players???
todd b says:

November 13, 2012 at 5:51 pm

The Suns fg% differential (defensive vs offensive) was at or near the top of the league for several years during D’Antoni’s tenure. Are teams’ defensive ratings adjusted for pace?
Andres Alvarez says:

November 13, 2012 at 5:53 pm

Todd,
The Suns were great by outscoring their opponents, which is how to win. It’s also arguable if this isn’t a successful strategy. They made three Western Conference Finals, and I argue without Amare being ejected they could have made it to four. The way Offensive and Defensive rating are calculated (per 100 possessions) they are adjusted for pace.
todd b says:

November 13, 2012 at 5:58 pm

I thought D’Antoni did a good job during his time with the Knicks—losing Felton and gaining Anthony hurt.
todd b says:

November 14, 2012 at 5:04 am

The offense vs defense debate is a tired one. The recipe for success is to take more and better shots than your opponent. D’Antoni’s teams have done that.
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Jon C (@JonCBK) says:

November 14, 2012 at 12:52 pm

Steve, I don’t know if that question is sarcastic. Assuming it wasn’t, yes, I think D’Antoni played the wrong guys. I think it is quite clear that Lin should have played over Bibby and Tony Douglas. It also is quite clear that Lin can play in the NBA. I don’t know why that wasn’t clear in practice. But he was very very close to being released. If he hadn’t dropped a triple double in that D-league game, they might have released him without ever giving him any meaningful court time.
rusty says:

November 15, 2012 at 6:33 am

Andres,

The Conference FInals run in ’06 shoudn’t really be considered an accomplishment. The NBA seedings, at the time, had the two best teams in the West(record wise) playing in the conference semis that year. If the seedings were setup the way they are now, it would have been Spurs/Mavs in the Conference Finals instead of Suns/Mavs. People seem to overlook this fact while heaping praise on those Suns teams.
Steven says:

November 15, 2012 at 9:45 am

Jon, I was alluding to the fact that given the revolving door of coaches, it is pretty evident who makes the calls for the knicks.

As a tor raps fan, I can see the same thing. 5 coaches in 8 years, yet guys like bargnani and derozen are still getting 35/min+ a game.
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May 20, 2013 at 7:28 am

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November 2012
M	T	W	T	F	S	S
« Oct				Dec »
			1	2	3	4
5	6	7	8	9	10	11
12	13	14	15	16	17	18
19	20	21	22	23	24	25
26	27	28	29	30

2010′s Title Rundowns

2000′s Title Rundowns

1990′s Title Rundowns

1980′s Title Rundowns

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