Wages of Wins Videocast – Berri Returns

For you audiophiles, even more options!

In a special “guest” appearance, Dave Berri returns to discuss analytics in the NBA, coaching and more!

Enjoy!

4 Responses to "Wages of Wins Videocast – Berri Returns"

Jeremy Britton says:

December 20, 2012 at 4:33 pm

He’s back!
Derryl Cole says:

December 20, 2012 at 6:40 pm

Would there be some way WP could incorporate defensive Synergy scores, in terms of PPP? This would seem to solve the problem of rebounders being over-valued (not because its not as valuable as advertised, but because a rebound is useless unless a perimeter player forced a miss). Not to mention, defense is half the game, but not accounted for in any player rating system. I feel like WP could really fix that.

I’m sure there is a reason, but I still don’t understand why turnovers and missed shots are counted equally. One leads to a change of a possession 100% of the time (-1), the other only 75% of the time (yet still counted as -1)? They are two things with different values being valued equally.

I’m not nitpicking, just trying to improve the model :)
Andres Alvarez says:

December 20, 2012 at 6:56 pm

Derryl,

Oh man, I’d love to incorporate Synergy (and there are years of data so we could see how it lined up.) Sadly, the Synergy interface is terrible for downloading data. If anyone knows how to get big data dumps of then, yes, we’d love to try that.

Ha, the turnover shot one is difficult. Let me try the quick version. The COST of the two is the same. The potential outcomes are way different. As such, a shot is much more valuable than a turnover (it can become points, can get rebounded, and we credit the players who do this) but a turnover only ever turns into an opponent possession. Poker players may get this. Two players can “get into the hand” for the same cost. However, the odds of who will win vary greatly. So the cost for both hands is the same, the value of the two is different.

A final note on possessions. It should be noted that a shot is a deliberate action, whereas a turnover is (presumably) unintentional. So it’s not a trade off.
Derryl Cole says:

December 20, 2012 at 9:49 pm

Smh… foiled by Synergy’s terrible interface.

I KIND of get what you are saying with respect to turnovers/missed shots. The poker analogy helped a lot lol.

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