NBA Snapshot for 1/14/2013

I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road. -Stephen Hawking

I’ve been doing regular full on power rankings as the season has gone on and I’ve found it to be a revealing and interesting exercise (Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3) but I’ve decided that it’s really not worth my time to do them on a weekly basis.

At least not the full version. What I’ve decided instead is to do them on a bi-weekly basis (which will allow for real change in the numbers to manifest) and to alternate them with what I call my snapshot of the NBA season at the time. This will give a quick update and help identify any changes to the established order.

We will keep some of the the numbers in both updates. Let’s start with everyone’s point margin adjusted for Homecourt and opponent.

PM

You’ll note that the table has a running total by time period (season,last 30,last 25,last 20,last 15,last 10,last 5 and last 2). This is meant to showcase the ebbs and flows of each team as the season goes along. It does however get more informative if I:

  • Turn it into a win % using my own special formula.
  • Color code for also rans (<44 wins), playoff teams (44-51 wins), contenders (52 -59 wins) and Champ Level teams (>60 wins).

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  • Do it by week and throw in ratings.

Snap

  1. The Top three in the West (Clippers,Spurs and Thunder) continue to play at a championship level as they have pretty much all season.
  2. New York leads the way in the East but they have not been hitting that top level as of late and have actually played pretty badly for stretches.
  3. Miami is not really built for the regular season but does have the ability as shown to turn it up to a next level by shortening their rotation and adding more Lebron to the cake mix.
  4. Brooklyn has been showing signs of life under new coach PJ Carlesimo. I think part of it is due to having Reggie Evans back but Deron Williams is also playing better. Now, I think this is more due to Deron actually trying than anything else.
  5. The Celtics have been rejuvenated by a combination of the defensive upgrade to Avery Bradley from Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger playing like a top 3 pick (up to .171 WP48 for the Year).
  6. Finally, Dallas and Washington are making some noise but it’ll be interesting to see how much they actually try.

Let’s end with the updated playoff projection:

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-Arturo

P.S. Again as a bonus, Here’s a table presented without explanation or context:

projection 1/15 t o1/23

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