Reservations about the All-Star reserves
Last night the NBA announced the players who were selected as All-Star reserves. These players were selected by NBA coaches and are supposed to represent the best players that the NBA has to offer. As with the selection of the All-Star starters, a few predictable mistakes were made. First let’s start with who was selected:
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| James Harden | 25.8 | 50.0% | 6.0 | W | G |
| David Lee | 19.6 | 63.4% | 4.5 | W | F |
| Tony Parker | 19.8 | 75.6% | 5.3 | W | G |
| Tim Duncan | 17.5 | 75.6% | 6.6 | W | F |
| Russell Westbrook | 22.7 | 76.7% | 4.4 | W | G |
| Zach Randolph | 16.1 | 65.9% | 5.7 | W | F |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 20.6 | 50.0% | 2.1 | W | F |
| West Averages: | 20.3 | 65.3% | 4.9 | W | 4F/3G |
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| Chris Bosh | 17.3 | 69.2% | 3.3 | E | F |
| Tyson Chandler | 12.2 | 64.1% | 9.0 | E | F |
| Joakim Noah | 12.2 | 61.0% | 6.2 | E | F |
| Paul George | 17.3 | 60.5% | 5.6 | E | G |
| Luol Deng | 17.4 | 61.0% | 4.2 | E | F |
| Kyrie Irving | 23.7 | 25.6% | 2.8 | E | G |
| Jrue Holiday | 19.0 | 40.5% | 3.1 | E | G |
| East Averages: | 17.0 | 54.5% | 4.9 | E | 4F/3G |
The coaches made some good decisions and some not-so-good decisions, and they follow predictable rules:
- A player selected to the All-Star team generally has to play for a winning team. No reserve in the West is on a team with a losing record at the moment, and only two from the East have a losing record.
- A player selected to the All-Star team generally scores a lot of points on a per game basis. Other than Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah, every player is ranked in the top 45 in points per game (PPG).
- If a player doesn’t have a high PPG, they should rebound or assist well. The three lowest scoring reserves are all ranked in the top ten in rebounds per game.
According to these rules, the players who most fans and pundits will regard as “snubs” are:
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| Stephen Curry | 20.9 | 63.4% | 5.1 | W | G |
| Monta Ellis | 18.8 | 55.0% | 0.9 | E | G |
| Brandon Jennings | 18.7 | 55.0% | 3.0 | E | G |
| Brook Lopez | 18.6 | 61.9% | 3.0 | E | F |
| Damian Lillard | 18.3 | 50.0% | 3.0 | W | G |
| Joe Johnson | 17.4 | 61.9% | 2.6 | E | G |
| Rudy Gay | 17.3 | 65.9% | 1.2 | W | F |
| Deron Williams | 17.0 | 61.9% | 3.6 | E | G |
| Jamal Crawford | 16.7 | 74.4% | 1.2 | W | G |
| Josh Smith | 16.7 | 57.1% | 1.2 | E | F |
| Danilo Gallinari | 16.6 | 59.1% | 3.3 | W | F |
| David West | 16.6 | 60.5% | 3.7 | E | F |
| Nicolas Batum | 16.5 | 50.0% | 6.8 | W | F |
| J.R. Smith | 16.5 | 64.1% | 1.8 | E | G |
| Carlos Boozer | 16.1 | 61.0% | 3.1 | W | F |
| Klay Thompson | 16.0 | 63.4% | 1.7 | W | G |
| Raymond Felton | 15.8 | 64.1% | 0.1 | E | G |
| Al Horford | 15.6 | 57.1% | 3.6 | E | F |
| Serge Ibaka | 14.0 | 76.7% | 5.4 | W | F |
| J.J. Hickson | 12.4 | 50.0% | 5.8 | W | F |
| Kenneth Faried | 12.0 | 59.1% | 6.5 | W | F |
| Omer Asik | 10.2 | 50.0% | 4.0 | W | F |
But you’ll notice that a lot of these players aren’t actually producing wins for their teams. Who should have been selected as an All-Star reserve?
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| Andrei Kirilenko | 13.7 | 43.6% | 7.3 | W | F |
| Nicolas Batum | 16.5 | 50.0% | 6.8 | W | F |
| Tim Duncan | 17.5 | 75.6% | 6.6 | W | F |
| Kenneth Faried | 12.0 | 59.1% | 6.5 | W | F |
| James Harden | 25.8 | 50.0% | 6.0 | W | G |
| J.J. Hickson | 12.4 | 50.0% | 5.8 | W | F |
| Jared Dudley | 12.0 | 33.3% | 5.5 | W | G |
| West Averages: | 15.7 | 51.7% | 6.4 | W | 5F/2G |
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| Tyson Chandler | 12.2 | 64.1% | 9.0 | E | F |
| Andre Drummond | 7.5 | 38.1% | 6.4 | E | F |
| Joakim Noah | 12.2 | 61.0% | 6.2 | E | F |
| Jose Calderon | 11.2 | 35.7% | 6.2 | E | G |
| Anderson Varejao | 14.1 | 25.6% | 6.1 | E | F |
| Jason Kidd | 8.3 | 64.1% | 5.9 | E | G |
| Paul George | 17.3 | 60.5% | 5.6 | E | G |
| Tristan Thompson* | 10.6 | 25.6% | 4.8 | E | F |
| West Averages: | 11.7 | 46.8% | 6.3 | E | 5F/3G |
* selected to replace Varejao, who is out for the season. Players in italics not selected as All-Star reserves.
These 15 players (it would be only 14 — seven for each conference — but Anderson Varejao is out for the season and needed replacing) would be suiting up as All-Star reserves if we selected players based on their productivity. Of the 15, only five — Tim Duncan, James Harden, Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah, and Paul George — were actually selected as reserves, a dismal 35% hit rate. It looks a bit better when we consider that most of the actual Western conference reserves — James Harden, David Lee, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, and Zach Randolph — are still in the West’s top 25 in Wins Produced. And in the East, Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah, Paul George, and Luol Deng all finished in the East’s top 25. Together, that means that ten out of the 14 players selected as reserves were in the top 25 in their conference for wins.
But that means that four of the reserves — LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Bosh, Jrue Holiday, and Kyrie Irving — did not finish in the top 25 in wins in their conference. And there are plenty of deserving candidates to replace them:
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| Andrei Kirilenko | 13.7 | 43.6% | 7.3 | W | F |
| Nicolas Batum | 16.5 | 50.0% | 6.8 | W | F |
| Kenneth Faried | 12.0 | 59.1% | 6.5 | W | F |
| Andre Drummond | 7.5 | 38.1% | 6.4 | E | F |
| Jose Calderon | 11.2 | 35.7% | 6.2 | E | G |
| Anderson Varejao | 14.1 | 25.6% | 6.1 | E | F |
| Jason Kidd | 8.3 | 64.1% | 5.9 | E | G |
| J.J. Hickson | 12.4 | 50.0% | 5.8 | W | F |
| Jared Dudley | 12.0 | 33.3% | 5.5 | W | G |
| Thabo Sefolosha | 7.2 | 76.7% | 5.5 | W | G |
| Matt Barnes | 11.2 | 74.4% | 5.4 | W | F |
| Serge Ibaka | 14.0 | 76.7% | 5.4 | W | F |
| Marc Gasol | 13.2 | 65.9% | 5.3 | W | F |
| Shawn Marion | 10.6 | 42.9% | 5.2 | W | F |
| Mike Conley | 13.3 | 65.9% | 5.2 | W | G |
| Stephen Curry | 20.9 | 63.4% | 5.1 | W | G |
| Tristan Thompson | 10.6 | 25.6% | 4.8 | E | F |
| Tiago Splitter | 10.3 | 75.6% | 4.8 | W | F |
| Chandler Parsons | 14.2 | 50.0% | 4.7 | W | F |
| Lance Stephenson | 7.7 | 60.5% | 4.6 | E | G |
| Paul Millsap | 14.8 | 54.8% | 4.5 | W | F |
| Larry Sanders | 8.2 | 55.0% | 4.5 | E | F |
| George Hill | 14.5 | 60.5% | 4.3 | E | G |
| Jimmy Butler | 6.1 | 61.0% | 4.3 | E | F |
| Nikola Vucevic | 11.8 | 33.3% | 4.2 | E | F |
Who will win?
One last thought: who is going to win the All-Star game, the West or the East?
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| Kevin Durant | 29.6 | 76.7% | 12.0 | W | F |
| Chris Paul | 16.6 | 74.4% | 9.5 | W | G |
| Tim Duncan | 17.5 | 75.6% | 6.6 | W | F |
| James Harden | 25.8 | 50.0% | 6.0 | W | G |
| Zach Randolph | 16.1 | 65.9% | 5.7 | W | F |
| Tony Parker | 19.8 | 75.6% | 5.3 | W | G |
| Blake Griffin | 18.3 | 74.4% | 5.2 | W | F |
| Dwight Howard | 16.7 | 40.5% | 4.8 | W | F |
| David Lee | 19.6 | 63.4% | 4.5 | W | F |
| Russell Westbrook | 22.7 | 76.7% | 4.4 | W | G |
| Kobe Bryant | 29.2 | 40.5% | 4.1 | W | G |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 20.6 | 50.0% | 2.1 | W | F |
| West Average | 21.0 | 63.6% | 5.9 | W | 7F/5G |
| Player | PPG | Team W% | Wins | Conf. | Pos |
| LeBron James | 26.5 | 69.2% | 9.2 | E | F |
| Tyson Chandler | 12.2 | 64.1% | 9.0 | E | F |
| Joakim Noah | 12.2 | 61.0% | 6.2 | E | F |
| Rajon Rondo | 13.4 | 48.8% | 5.7 | E | G |
| Paul George | 17.3 | 60.5% | 5.6 | E | G |
| Dwyane Wade | 20.5 | 69.2% | 5.0 | E | G |
| Luol Deng | 17.4 | 61.0% | 4.2 | E | F |
| Chris Bosh | 17.3 | 69.2% | 3.3 | E | F |
| Jrue Holiday | 19.0 | 40.5% | 3.1 | E | G |
| Kyrie Irving | 23.7 | 25.6% | 2.8 | E | G |
| Kevin Garnett | 14.7 | 48.8% | 1.5 | E | F |
| Carmelo Anthony | 29.2 | 64.1% | 1.4 | E | F |
| East Average | 18.6 | 56.8% | 4.8 | E | 7F/5G |
Note: italics denote All-Star starters
Probably the West. It will depend on playing time, and some player’s games don’t translate well to what is essentially a pick-up game, but the West has quite a better roster. Most notably, two of the East’s starters — Kevin Garnett and Carmelo Anthony — are the two least productive players from either team.
- Devin