A Check in on my NBA Predictions

I’ve referenced these a few times, but I made a few predictions to start the season. While not a large amount (less than the cost of tickets for good seat at a Nuggets game), I put my money where my mouth is. These were predictions made to start the season (with the exception of one). Let’s see how I’m doing.

Kevin Durant is better than a 2-1 Favorite to win MVP


Verdict: Good hedge, odds still look good.

This was actually a hedge. I did not make this to start the season. Durant is leading the league in scoring, came in 2nd place last in MVP voting year, and is on one of the top teams out West. This was made before that LeBron James guy decided to play that crazy streak. I still like my chances.

Carmelo Anthony has better than a 20-1 shot to win MVP


Verdict: Good at the time, won’t happen.

Made to start the season. I stand by this. While the Knicks have cooled, he’s still 2nd in the league in scoring and the Knicks have a great record. Don’t think it happens but definitely think it was a good bet. He got as high as a 3-1 shot, but has dropped since then. It appears to be a race between Bron and Durant now.

Spurs have better than 6-1 shot to win the Western Conference


Verdict: Easy at the time, still looking good.

No love for the Spurs. They’ve gone up to a 2.4 -1 shot. This was an easy pick. The Thunder are still the favorites, which I get but feel they’re overvalued.

Nuggets have better than 20-1 shot to win the Western Conference


Verdict: Good idea on paper. Bad because I forgot to factor in the Karl coefficient.

Was definitely a bit of hometown love. They have the talent to do it but after all of my Karl watches though, I just don’t see it happening.

Houston Rockets win more than 29 games


Verdict: Such an easy prediction, already true!

Right after the James Harden trade went down I checked over/under for both Thunder and Rockets. You weren’t allowed to guess about the Thunder, but the Rockets sat at a pitiful 29 games. I laughed my head off and made an easy prediction. The fact that a 46 point game by Harden against OKC is what sealed this is even more awesome.

Philadelphia 76ers win fewer than 48 games


Verdict: Easy prediction, looking good.

The 76ers would need to win 26 of their remaining 30 games to prove me wrong, which seems unlikely.  I thought Andre Iguodala for Andrew Bynum would balance out. That said, they only won 43 games (adjusted for 82 game season) last season and didn’t do any upgrades. Tack in Bynum going out with injury and this was pretty set from the get go.

Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 40 games


Verdict: Great prediction at the time, but aint happening.

Ricky Rubio, Andrei Kirilenko, Kevin LoveNikola Pekovic and Chase Budinger coming off the bench? This seemed like such an easy pick. Here’s a reminder:

  • Rubio – Out 25 games to injury
  • Kirilenko – Out 9 games to injury
  • Love – Out 33 games to injury (still out too!)
  • Pekovic – Out 7 games to injury
  • Budinger – Out 45 games to injury (and done for season)

Injuries matter. So yeah, I’m fine with the prediction, unhappy with the results (as a double whammy the home game I watched the Nuggets play the Wolves? Not only did the Nuggets lose but Love exited with injury!).

Lakers win fewer than 59 games


Verdict: Such an easy prediction, and already true.

Hahahaha! Oh man, this was so hilarious to me. I love Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. But even if they were both healthy this was a stretch. Of course, we’ve seen what happened. Thank goodness for overzealous Lakers fans.

Dallas Mavericks win fewer than 44 games


Verdict: Easy prediction and almost already true.

Remember the start of the season when I got into an argument with Mark Cuban about how you had to start with good players and Chris Kaman and O.J. Mayo didn’t count? I think I was right on this one. The Mavericks as constructed stood no shot. An aging Dirk Nowitzki, who was out with injury, wasn’t going to do much, and the rest of the roster wasn’t that impressive. This was an easy prediction to make and I won’t lie, I feel a bit happy I’m right.

Denver Nuggets win at least 50 games


Verdict: Good prediction, still has a good shot.

The Nuggets need to win 16 of their remaining games for me to be right. Looking at their schedule, this is doable. I’m always apprehensive betting on Karl, and the trade deadline didn’t take away Corey Brewer or Wilson Chandler. Still, I’m hopeful.

Summing up

I loved my Melo MVP pick and the odds were definitely right. I’m also still pretty favorable on my Durant hedge, but damn LeBron is good! The Spurs winning the West is also an easy one to be happy with and while I’m OK with the odds for the Nuggets winning out West, I’m not too keen on it.

Team wise, I’m already at 4 out of 6 correct. If the Nuggets can keep playing well in spite of Karl, that will go to 5 of 6. I feel pretty happy with my predictions, especially some of my more surefire ones. We’ll see how it ends up.


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