(Updated 3/20/13 6pm EST)
We are keeping this simple. I put out a call and the team answered. I needed a better model for the Tournament Picks. Dave stepped up and let me put in a sneak preview of our next big project.
It was hard, it was complicated to build but we’ve cracked it: Wins Produced for all NCAA teams. We will be writing many,many words on this later.We may even use it to write about the draft or player exploitation (hint,hint).
For this post, it’s a means to an end.
That is your Tournament Power rank with everyone’s expected point Margin against average competition. Use simple addition to figure out the expected point margin for every matchup. As for win Probabilities?
As for the play-in games?
|School||Region||Tourney Rk||Grid Order||Point Margin||Win Prob|
|North Carolina A&T||1Midwest||16||3||-6.4||43%|
|Saint Mary’s (CA)||1Midwest||11||11||17.2||60%|
|Long Island University||4East||16||2||-0.2||60%|
I will do a more detailed simulation later in the week.
Never let it be said that I never did anything for you.
-Arturo with an assist from DJ