NCAA picks Part 2: Introducing NCAA Wins Produced

(Updated 3/20/13 6pm EST)

We are keeping this simple. I put out a call and the team answered. I needed a better model for the Tournament Picks. Dave stepped up and let me put in a sneak preview of our next big project.

It was hard, it was complicated to build but we’ve cracked it: Wins Produced for all NCAA teams. We will be writing many,many words on this later.We may even use it to write about the draft or player exploitation (hint,hint).

For this post, it’s a means to an end.

Power Rank

That is your Tournament Power rank with everyone’s expected point Margin against average competition. Use simple addition to figure out the expected point margin for every matchup. As for win Probabilities?

Win Prob Poster

As for the play-in games?

School Region Tourney Rk Grid Order Point Margin Win Prob
Liberty 1Midwest 16 2 -4.3 57%
North Carolina A&T 1Midwest 16 3 -6.4 43%
Saint Mary’s (CA) 1Midwest 11 11 17.2 60%
Middle Tennessee 1Midwest 11 12 14.2 40%
Boise State 2West 13 8 14.2 70%
La Salle 2West 13 9 8.4 30%
Long Island University 4East 16 2 -0.2 60%
James Madison 4East 16 3 -3.1 40%

I will do a more detailed simulation later in the week.

Never let it be said that I never did anything for you.

-Arturo with an assist from DJ


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