Dre just wrote a nice hopeful piece on the chances of the Nuggets winning the west. Go read it. There was a lot of if and hope and maybe in that piece. It is to be expected when writing about your own team.
It was interesting enough for me to take a pause in my insanely busy day to look it up. I broke out my model and updated it so I could lay it out in a cold and rational manner. What do the numbers actually say? Can the Nuggets actually win the West or is Dre off in some fantasy land?
Editor Dre Here: There’s a bunch of great analysis. The answer to the post is buried at the bottom though. Here’s a sneak preview. Arturo will explain how he got there though!
Odds of #1 Seed by Team
- Miami Heat – 100%
- Oklahoma City Thunder – 59.1%
- San Antonio Spurs – 35.9%
- Denver Nuggets – 3.5%
- Memphis Grizzlies – 1.2%
- Los Angeles Clippers – 0.3%
Denver has managed to climb up to number two in the west in the power ranking even without their rather sizable homecourt advantage. How does that play out when we do the full sim?
Denver now has a real shot at the 1 seed. Their chances are hovering aroung the 3.5% mark. They of course as Dre said in his post need some help from San Antonio and OKC. The real interesting bit is that the team fighting for those 6-8 slots (GSW,LAL,Houston and Dallas) are surging or extremely dangerous. But overall it is good news for Nuggets fans.
While we’re here might as well just get the full rankings in as well right?
Out east, Miami is looking inevitable as Indiana is based on history due to lose in the ECF. The only possible obstacle is again Boston but only if they’re completely healthy (the Rondo question) or if Jeff Green magically morphs into Lebron (this is weirdly the more likely option and I have no clue what to think about it).
Let’s close with the win projection and the odds:
Golden State really is a different team with Bogut at center. Utah and Portland seem to be out in the west with LA and Houston in. Dallas is seriously lurking. There are now officially no bad playoff series in the West.
I’d give you more but ,hey, I still need to write another NCAA piece.