A quick update on Carmelo Anthony

Since we posted Dave’s article on Carmelo Anthony, Stephen Curry, and Pistol Pete, Melo has continued to miss a very large amount of shots at an alarming rate. At the moment, Anthony has taken over 30 field goal attempts (FGA) per 48 minutes played during this year’s playoffs. This feat has only been accomplished 14 times, and Melo’s performance is the second worst in terms of effective field goal percentage (eFG%):

Player	Season	FGA	PTS	eFG%	TS%	PPS
Michael Jordan	1989-90	30.3	41.8	53.3%	59.2%	1.38
Dan Issel	1983-84	32.0	43.0	51.5%	57.5%	1.34
Michael Jordan	1991-92	30.3	39.6	51.4%	57.1%	1.31
Michael Jordan	1985-86	33.8	46.6	51.1%	58.4%	1.38
Michael Jordan	1992-93	32.4	40.8	50.2%	55.3%	1.26
Kobe Bryant	2011-12	30.4	36.3	46.7%	52.5%	1.20
Dominique Wilkins	1987-88	30.4	38.0	46.3%	52.7%	1.25
Walter Davis	1981-82	32.2	35.2	45.3%	50.2%	1.09
Dominique Wilkins	1992-93	31.9	38.2	44.7%	51.0%	1.20
Michael Jordan	1986-87	31.5	40.1	42.9%	52.9%	1.27
Allen Iverson	2000-01	31.2	34.2	42.5%	48.0%	1.09
Tracy McGrady	2000-01	33.2	36.4	42.3%	48.3%	1.10
Carmelo Anthony	2012-13	30.6	33.7	42.1%	48.8%	1.10
Darrell Griffith	1986-87	30.0	31.4	41.5%	46.3%	1.05

Thanks to his excellent free-throw shooting, Anthony fares a bit better if we rank these performances by True Shooting percentage (TS%; 11/14) or by Points per Shot (PPS; 10/14). Still, what we are seeing from Anthony is something that doesn’t happen very often. The most similar performances would be Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson during the 2000-01 playoffs, and it should be noted that those two players — particularly McGrady — offered more than just scoring. But regardless of how you look at the numbers, it’s clear that Carmelo Anthony’s performance ranks in the bottom five of this grouping.

On another note, these figures do support the notion that Michael Jordan was an excellent scorer. Jordan shows up on this list five times, more than any other player. He posted the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th-highest numbers in terms of points; 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th, in terms of eFG%; and 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th in terms of both TS% and PPS. Dan Issel in 1983-84 is the only player in this category with remotely similar numbers.

- Devin

6 Responses to "A quick update on Carmelo Anthony"

DooDooJump says:

May 15, 2013 at 2:10 pm

Man… As much as I dislike the “Jordan is the best ever no question” folks, it’s hard to imagine anyone else scoring like that. There’s an argument for Lebron based on his all-around effectiveness, but I don’t think even he could manage to score so effectively on 30 shots a game.

And yeah, I’m aware that the increased usage = lower efficiency thing doesn’t really hold true, but I have to imagine that if he took 30 shots per game, even he would get too gassed going into the paint for good looks to continue at that level.
Tommy Grand says:

May 16, 2013 at 10:50 am

Dan Issel was much better than I thought.
Nate says:

May 16, 2013 at 12:02 pm

It seems a little odd to make the comparison because fouled misses aren’t counted as FGAs. If they were, we’d see probably see a bunch more players and seasons on that list: Hakeem Olajuwon, World B. Free, Bernard King, George Gervin, Mark Aguirre, Tony Parker, Derrick Rose, Johhny Newman and Lebron James have all had plausibly comparable FGA+FTA*.44 numbers in post seasons.

That said, in the larger context, we still see Tracy McGrady, Carmello Anthony and Allan Iverson with lots of shooting and not so much scoring in the postseason. Between the three of them they fill out a lot of the bottom quartile of TS% for that kind of shooting rate.

DooDooJump:
Lebron James probably did take more than 30 shots per game in the 08-09 postseason, and the case can pretty easily be made that that was better than any of Jordan’s postseasons in terms of scoring. Of course, the league’s changed the rules since then and so on.

Bernard King in 82-83 and 83-84, Dwayne Wade in 09-10, Hakeem Olajuwon in 87-88 and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 79-80 are also all arguably better scoring postseasons at comparable usage.
HoopDon says:

May 16, 2013 at 1:00 pm

DooDooJump:

Pretty much what Nate said. There’s been a couple current players who have had stretches of scoring better then Jordan, especially if we account for pace.

Also, depending on how you choose to tease out the data, will determine what kind of usage/efficiency relationship you see. I think its pretty clear there is a inverse relationship in general, but there are so many other variables involved, its tough to see to what extent, and for what type of player.

Everybody Else:

Anyone read that study at Sports Skeptic a year ago about “blending” WP with other metrics to better explain performance? I thought it was neat, so I ranked the top players for 2013 with it. Check it out if interested.
Justin says:

May 16, 2013 at 8:45 pm

This article is lacking in context and basketball analysis. Carmelo is suffering from a shoulder injury, but because he’s in the playoffs he’s playing through it. This is the cause of his low shooting percentages in the playoffs. He’s also facing the toughest (or adjusting for strength of schedule second toughest) defense in the league right now, and in the round before Boston wasn’t bad either.

I know Carmelo is a scapegoat around here, but sometimes you have to go beyond the box score.
robert miller (@tayottt) says:

May 17, 2013 at 9:07 am

Justin. I agree that we do need to look beyond stats when we analyze the NBA sometimes but you are making excuses for Melo. This isn’t even his 3rd worst postseason eFG%. He’s been worse! Injury or not Carmelo Anthony is an overrated scorer. So the fact that he is injured or facing a tough defense isn’t going to cut it. At some point we just have to admit that the guy needs to do better.

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