Ranking the top 11 NCAA prospects at each position
Kansas shooting guard Ben McLemore
Now that the NBA Draft Lottery is over, we know where each team will pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. That means that now is the perfect time to get in some quick analysis of the top draft prospects (before Yogi and Booboo make an appearance). On Thursday, I used NCAA Wins Produced to determine how productive the top 25 NCAA draft prospects were in this past college season. Today I’ll be looking at the top 11 prospects at each position (so I am looking at 30 more players than I did last time).
Earlier this year we unveiled Wins Produced numbers for college basketball players. This model works for college just like it does for the NBA. Now, keep in mind that college performance does not predict NBA performance perfectly; this list should only be seen as information about how a player performed in college last year. Just because a player played well (or not well) in college last season does not mean he will play well (or not well) in the NBA. But players who are productive in college have a somewhat better chance of being productive in the NBA (relative to those who are not productive in college).
When analyzing the table below, please also note the following:
- The numbers I’ve used below do not include games played in this year’s NCAA tournament. We will update this analysis in the future.
- Pay attention to our position assignment. This may not be the position the player will play in the NBA. And as these positions were assigned by an automated process (developed by Arturo Galletti), it also may not have been the position played in college. Position averages for ADJP40 are provided if you wish to calculate WP40 at different positions.
- The top 11 NCAA prospects at each position comes from Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports. Goodman’s list was last updated on April 29th, which means that these rankings were tabulated before the NBA Draft Combine. As a side note (and this is part of some current research I am working on), it should be noted that the measurements taken at the combine do not appear to be related to future NBA performance or where a player is taken in the draft. In other words, the combine is probably meaningless.
- There is no statistical relationship between the CBS Rankings and the ADJP40 rankings. In other words, how productive a player was in the NCAA last year — as measured by the Wins Produced model — is not correlated with the CBS prospect ranking. Given how players are evaluated by the NBA in the draft (and this is also part of current research), this isn’t really surprising (and more will be said on this later).
With that in mind, the tables below take Goodman’s top 11 NCAA players at each position (the list stops at 11 because Goodman only had 11 small forwards) and rank them by ADJP40. That means that this list does not necessarily include the top NCAA players in terms of wins, WP40, or ADJP40; I’m simply re-ranking CBS Sports’ top NCAA prospects by their raw productivity (which is their productivity before the positional adjustment). Each player is grouped according to the position used by Goodman in his rankings. Players who were below average (below average for an NCAA player — not for a player drafted out of the NCAA) for their grouped position are indicated in red.
Point Guards
| Player | School | Class | Estimated NCAA Position | WP40 | Wins | CBS Position Rank | ADJP40 |
| Nate Wolters | South Dakota State | Sr. | 3.01 | 0.236 | 7.2 | 9 | 0.485 |
| Ray McCallum | Detroit Mercy | Jr. | 2.03 | 0.229 | 6.7 | 11 | 0.456 |
| Trey Burke | Michigan | Soph. | 1.06 | 0.246 | 7.2 | 1 | 0.453 |
| Erick Green | Virginia Tech | Sr. | 2.31 | 0.202 | 5.9 | 10 | 0.435 |
| Shane Larkin | Miami (FL) | Soph. | 1 | 0.227 | 6.8 | 3 | 0.433 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | Syracuse | Soph. | 2.01 | 0.186 | 5.7 | 2 | 0.413 |
| Isaiah Canaan | Murray State | Sr. | 1.1 | 0.183 | 5.2 | 5 | 0.391 |
| Pierre Jackson | Baylor | Sr. | 1 | 0.183 | 4.9 | 8 | 0.389 |
| Myck Kabongo | Texas | Soph. | 1 | 0.171 | 1.6 | 6 | 0.377 |
| Lorenzo Brown | NC State | Jr. | 1.97 | 0.142 | 3.9 | 4 | 0.367 |
| Phil Pressey | Missouri | Jr. | 1 | 0.111 | 3.1 | 7 | 0.317 |
Shooting Guards
| Player | School | Class | Estimated NCAA Position | WP40 | Wins | CBS Position Rank | ADJP40 |
| Victor Oladipo | Indiana | Jr. | 2.84 | 0.318 | 7.4 | 2 | 0.563 |
| Reggie Bullock | North Carolina | Jr. | 3.17 | 0.264 | 6.8 | 9 | 0.518 |
| Ben McLemore | Kansas | Fr. | 2.21 | 0.237 | 6.5 | 1 | 0.468 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Georgia | Soph. | 2.61 | 0.222 | 6.0 | 7 | 0.462 |
| C.J. McCollum | Lehigh | Sr. | 2.69 | 0.22 | 2.0 | 4 | 0.461 |
| Jamaal Franklin | San Diego State | Jr. | 2.96 | 0.17 | 4.2 | 8 | 0.417 |
| Allen Crabbe | California | Jr. | 3 | 0.143 | 4.0 | 6 | 0.392 |
| Tony Snell | New Mexico | Jr. | 3.09 | 0.109 | 2.9 | 10 | 0.36 |
| Shabazz Muhammad | UCLA | Fr. | 3.84 | 0.074 | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | Michigan | Jr. | 3.05 | 0.083 | 2.3 | 11 | 0.332 |
| Archie Goodwin | Kentucky | Fr. | 2.72 | 0.057 | 1.5 | 5 | 0.299 |
Small Forwards
| Player | School | Class | Estimated NCAA Position | WP40 | Wins | CBS Position Rank | ADJP40 |
| D.J. Stephens | Memphis | Sr. | 3.23 | 0.358 | 7.1 | 8 | 0.614 |
| Otto Porter | Georgetown | Soph. | 4.33 | 0.228 | 6.0 | 1 | 0.517 |
| Elias Harris | Gonzaga | Sr. | 4 | 0.232 | 5.9 | 9 | 0.513 |
| Ryan Broekhoff | Valparaiso | Sr. | 4 | 0.198 | 5.9 | 11 | 0.479 |
| James Ennis | Long Beach State | Sr. | 2.96 | 0.219 | 5.9 | 10 | 0.467 |
| Carrick Felix | Arizona State | Sr. | 3.14 | 0.202 | 5.9 | 7 | 0.455 |
| James Southerland | Syracuse | Sr. | 4 | 0.168 | 3.5 | 3 | 0.449 |
| Solomon Hill | Arizona | Sr. | 3.39 | 0.153 | 4.0 | 5 | 0.414 |
| Deshaun Thomas | Ohio State | Jr. | 3.71 | 0.13 | 3.8 | 2 | 0.402 |
| Rodney Williams | Minnesota | Sr. | 4 | 0.114 | 2.5 | 4 | 0.395 |
| Adonis Thomas | Memphis | Soph. | 4 | 0.047 | 1.2 | 6 | 0.328 |
Power Forwards
| Player | School | Class | Estimated NCAA Position | WP40 | Wins | CBS Position Rank | ADJP40 |
| Kelly Olynyk | Gonzaga | Jr. | 4.53 | 0.318 | 6.1 | 2 | 0.611 |
| Alex Oriakhi | Missouri | Sr. | 5 | 0.302 | 6.4 | 11 | 0.606 |
| Mason Plumlee | Duke | Sr. | 4.62 | 0.239 | 6.7 | 3 | 0.534 |
| Anthony Bennett | UNLV | Fr. | 4.63 | 0.234 | 5.3 | 1 | 0.529 |
| Andre Roberson | Colorado | Jr. | 4.17 | 0.235 | 5.9 | 6 | 0.52 |
| Richard Howell | NC State | Sr. | 4.13 | 0.224 | 6.0 | 8 | 0.508 |
| Jackie Carmichael | Illinois State | Sr. | 5 | 0.204 | 5.2 | 10 | 0.508 |
| Erik Murphy | Florida | Sr. | 4.52 | 0.205 | 4.4 | 7 | 0.498 |
| Tony Mitchell | North Texas | Soph. | 4.6 | 0.172 | 4.5 | 5 | 0.467 |
| Grant Jerrett | Arizona | Fr. | 5 | 0.127 | 1.8 | 9 | 0.43 |
| C.J. Leslie | NC State | Jr. | 5 | 0.063 | 1.7 | 4 | 0.366 |
Centers
| Player | School | Class | Estimated NCAA Position | WP40 | Wins | CBS Position Rank | ADJP40 |
| Mike Muscala | Bucknell | Sr. | 5 | 0.332 | 8.7 | 7 | 0.636 |
| Nerlens Noel | Kentucky | Fr. | 4 | 0.328 | 6.3 | 1 | 0.609 |
| Zeke Marshall | Akron | Sr. | 5 | 0.29 | 6.5 | 9 | 0.594 |
| Gorgui Dieng | Louisville | Jr. | 5 | 0.268 | 5.7 | 4 | 0.572 |
| Jeff Withey | Kansas | Sr. | 5 | 0.261 | 6.8 | 6 | 0.565 |
| Cody Zeller | Indiana | Soph. | 5 | 0.233 | 5.7 | 3 | 0.537 |
| Colton Iverson | Colorado State | Sr. | 5 | 0.221 | 5.4 | 8 | 0.525 |
| Steven Adams | Pittsburgh | Fr. | 5 | 0.216 | 3.9 | 5 | 0.52 |
| Alex Len | Maryland | Soph. | 5 | 0.199 | 4.5 | 2 | 0.503 |
| Aziz N’Diaye | Washington | Sr. | 5 | 0.161 | 3.9 | 10 | 0.465 |
| Mouphtaou Yarou | Villanova | Sr. | 5 | 0.157 | 3.6 | 11 | 0.461 |
As promised, if you want to re-calculate a player’s WP40 for a different position, here are the ADJP40 averages by position:
- PG: 0.309
- SG: 0.329
- SF: 0.351
- PF: 0.384
- C: 0.406
– DJ (with a whole bunch of editorial and writing help from Devin)