Bill Russell went 12 years between his first and last finals. Tim Duncan is on 14 years and counting. There’s something majestic about taking one last ride.
Off and on during the playoffs, I’ve been doing Advanced playoff box scores and I’ve decided to do it for the Finals.
Exciting, isn’t it?
A few quick notes before we go:
- We are using New Wins Produced numbers. I’m manually compiling them for the playoffs and NBA Geek has compiled them for the season. There will be some drift in the numbers as we go along (don’t worry it’s a function of the averages moving), but it’s good enough for horseshoes, hand grenades, and tactical nuclear weapons.
- The Boxscore contains:
- Basic information: Player, Team, Game ID (Who, what, and when)
- Classic Stats: Points, Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds, Steals, Blocks, and Assists (because the classics are classics for a reason).
- Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as a % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
- Posession and Play stats: Offensive Plays: (Field Goal attempts) + 0.434 (Free Throw Attempts) + Turnovers; Usage of Offensive Plays: % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
- All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones): Effective Field Goal %= (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA; True Shooting %= Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
- “Do it Yourself” Offensive Point Margin Stats: Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player – Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player. Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent – Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game. Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
- Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
- Points over Par: This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the game’s point margin. This is the key number boys and girls. In the interest of keeping it to each series and games I am using Point over Par in comparison to the players on the court for each game. What this means is that each player will not be judged against the average playoff production for their position but rather their opponents. This guarantees that on a game level Points over Par maps to actual point margin.
- I’ve classified performances on a sliding scale:
- Hall of Famer: 12.5 POP48 and Above. Submit tape of performance to Hall of Fame voters
- Superstar: 5 to 12.5 POP48. Lebron on a regular night.
- Star: 2.5 to 5 POP48. A good night
- Starter: 0 to 2.5 POP48. Positive contributions to the outcome.
- Bench: -2.5 to 0 POP48. Not worthy of a starting role.
- Scrub: -5 to -2.5 POP48. Play only in case of emergency.
- Traitor: less than -5 POP48. You’re wearing the wrong uniform.
Now for the recap.
Heat-Spurs Game 1
Tim Duncan shook himself off from a terrible first quarter to thoroughly dominate the rest of this game. He was ably assisted by Parker and his late game heroics. The underrated storyline was the masterful job Kawhi Leonard did defensively shutting down Lebron in the 4th Quarter. Lebron still got his elsewhere but Kawhi was downright Pippen-esque in shutting him down man on man. The LVP has to go to Chris Bosh who downright stunk up the joint. He may be playing himself straight out of South Beach.
Initial Prediction: SA in 6
MVP so Far: Tim Duncan
Updated Prediction: SA in 6. The model really, really likes Spurs in five now though.
Updated series odds are:
|4 Games||5 Games||6 Games||7 Games|
With the Spurs’ total win percentage at 77%.
P.S.: Wanted to throw in a little something extra (courtesy of @HeyBelinda):