Advanced Box Scores for 2013 NBA Finals Game 2

The Spurs looked like they were going to take Miami there for a while…and then LeBron happened. Game 2 was a must win for Miami and they won it going away. The interesting part was that the story of the game was defense.

Let’s get to Game 2 of my Advanced playoff box scores for the Finals.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. We are using New Wins Produced numbers. I’m manually compiling them for the playoffs and NBA Geek has compiled them for the season. There will be some drift in the numbers as we go along (don’t worry: it’s a function moving averages), but it’s good enough for horseshoes, hand grenades, and tactical nuclear weapons.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
    • Basic information: Player, Team, Game ID (who, what, and when)
    • Classic Stats: Points, Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds, Steals, Blocks, and Assists (because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as a % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Posession and Play stats: Offensive Plays: (Field Goal attempts) + 0.434 (Free Throw Attempts) + Turnovers; Usage of Offensive Plays: % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones): Effective Field Goal %= (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA; True Shooting %= Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • “Do it Yourself” Offensive Point Margin Stats: Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player – Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player. Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent – Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game. Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
    • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
    • Points over Par: This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the game’s point margin. This is the key number boys and girls. In the interest of keeping it to each series and games I am using Point over Par in comparison to the players on the court for each game. What this means is that each player will not be judged against the average playoff production for their position but rather their opponents. This guarantees that on a game level Points over Par maps to actual point margin.
    • I’ve classified performances on a sliding scale:
      • Hall of Famer: 12.5 POP48 and Above. Submit tape of performance to Hall of Fame voters
      • Superstar: 5 to 12.5 POP48. Lebron on a regular night.
      • Star: 2.5 to 5 POP48. A good night
      • Starter: 0 to 2.5 POP48. Positive contributions to the outcome.
      • Bench: -2.5 to 0 POP48. Not worthy of a starting role.
      • Scrub: -5 to -2.5 POP48. Play only in case of emergency.
      • Traitor: less than -5 POP48. You’re wearing the wrong uniform.

    Boxscores first:

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Now for the recap.

Heat-Spurs Game 2

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It really was the story of two games. Up to about halfway through the 3rd, San Antonio was in control of the game with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green dominating LeBron James on defense. It felt like Birdman was keeping them in the game. Then a switch was flipped and LeBron found a way to contribute through defense, with spectacular blocks, or by hitting the open man. It must be noted that Green and Leonard showed up but the rest of the Spurs were MIA particularly Duncan and Splitter. As for Miami,  the gameball has to go to Bosh and Mario for rediscovering their games in this one.

Initial Prediction: SA in 6

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MVP so Far: Lebron has the most wins but Danny Green goes home with the split. Danny Green.

LVP: Splitter is playing that new contract down.

Updated Prediction: SA in 6. The model still likes Spurs in five now.

Updated series odds are:

W4 W5 W6 W7 L4 L5 L6 L7
0.0% 3.9% 12.2% 18.5% 0.00% 29.06% 20.49% 15.86%

And length:

4 Games 5 Games 6 Games 7 Games
0.0% 32.9% 32.7% 34.4%

With the Spurs’ total win percentage dropping from 77% to 60%.

-Arturo

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