Advanced Boxscore for Finals Game 3: The Red Wedding

I’m gonna fight ‘em all 

A seven nation army couldn’t hold me back – Seven Nation Army by the White Stripes

It got ugly.

The Heat kept giving the Spurs open looks and then it got ugly.  At 36 points, the Spurs just gave LeBron James the worst lost of his career (tied with game 3 of the 2008 Cavs-Wizards series).

When the series is tied at one, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the finals 12 of 13 times since we went to the 2-3-2 format. Miami might just be done.

The Spurs seven nation Army threw down on Miami like the wrath of god. It was a bad day to be wearing red.

Let’s get to Game 3 of my Advanced playoff box scores for the Finals.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. We are using New Wins Produced numbers. I’m manually compiling them for the playoffs and NBA Geek has compiled them for the season. There will be some drift in the numbers as we go along (don’t worry: it’s a function moving averages), but it’s good enough for horseshoes, hand grenades, and tactical nuclear weapons.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
    • Basic information: Player, Team, Game ID (who, what, and when)
    • Classic Stats: Points, Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds, Steals, Blocks, and Assists (because the classics are classics for a reason).
    • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as a % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
    • Posession and Play stats: Offensive Plays: (Field Goal attempts) + 0.434 (Free Throw Attempts) + Turnovers; Usage of Offensive Plays: % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
    • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones): Effective Field Goal %= (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA; True Shooting %= Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
    • “Do it Yourself” Offensive Point Margin Stats: Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player – Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player. Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent – Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game. Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
    • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
    • Points over Par: This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the game’s point margin. This is the key number boys and girls. In the interest of keeping it to each series and games I am using Point over Par in comparison to the players on the court for each game. What this means is that each player will not be judged against the average playoff production for their position but rather their opponents. This guarantees that on a game level Points over Par maps to actual point margin.
    • I’ve classified performances on a sliding scale:
      • Hall of Famer: 12.5 POP48 and Above. Submit tape of performance to Hall of Fame voters
      • Superstar: 5 to 12.5 POP48. Lebron on a regular night.
      • Star: 2.5 to 5 POP48. A good night
      • Starter: 0 to 2.5 POP48. Positive contributions to the outcome.
      • Bench: -2.5 to 0 POP48. Not worthy of a starting role.
      • Scrub: -5 to -2.5 POP48. Play only in case of emergency.
      • Traitor: less than -5 POP48. You’re wearing the wrong uniform.

    Boxscores first:

Boxscore game 3

Now for the recap.

Heat-Spurs Game 3

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I play in an advanced stats basketball fantasy league with some of the regular wages of wins contributors. I was actually the first expansion team in the league. I got killed initially but I was able to build my team to the point that I was a hair’s width from winning this year and my team is built around Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green (well, and Kenneth Faried). That’s my way of telling you, the reader, that I am completely in the tank for those two guys. Not only that, but I told you that Kawhi was the playoff and regular season MVP for the Spurs and it would be his matchup with LeBron that would set the tone for this series.

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Danny Green is the for-real Finals MVP if the series ended right now. Leonard is the only other guy who comes close.

Initial Prediction: SA in 6

MVP so Far: Danny Green is your Finals MVP

LVP:  Dwayne Wade looks totally and completely done. So done that I googled this:

lebron-a-laker

I just threw up in my mouth a little.

 

Updated Prediction: SA in 5. My model is laughing at my pick in six right now.

Updated series odds are:

W4 W5 W6 W7 L4 L5 L6 L7
0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 15.8% 0.00% 43.87% 20.62% 13.54%

And length:

4 Games 5 Games 6 Games 7 Games
0.0% 43.9% 26.8% 29.4%

With the Spurs’ total win percentage rising from 60% to 78%.

-Arturo

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