Everything flows, nothing stands still. -Heraclitus
Change is a way of life in the offseason for any sport. Coaches, executives, uniforms, and players all are subject to immediate change, regardless of the accolades they may have received in the previous season (i.e. Coach or Executive of the Year).
However, sources say that what the fans really care about is player movement in the offseason.
With that in mind, I gave you a full accounting of the state of the league headed into the free agency period, including a complete evaluation of every contract and the value of each player in the league for the next five years.
I thought it was quite good and referred to it constantly throughout the last 5 days. However, as it tends to do in the offseason, the situation has evolved.
Therefore we must as well.
That’s the up-to-date (as of noon EST, 7/08/13 ) list of all players, signed and unsigned. Players are sorted by teams and expected value over the next five year. Now that I have some time I’m going to walk you through everything.
- Player Vitals: simple enough; name, old team, new team, contract status at start of offseason, position over last three years, age right now, minutes per game (this is the greater of the average minutes played for all games over last three years or last year) and Wins Produced per 48 minutes for the last three years.
- Projected Wins: using the player’s age, minutes per game, Wins Produced per 48 for the last three years and the Age Model, I project the player’s expected Wins Produced for each of the next five years.
- Market Value: I then estimate the value of those wins using the data from Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and general math (see here or here for a nice illustration of the method). Basically I work out the BRI (basketball Related income), divide it by two (player share) and then divide it by 30 teams and 41 wins. I take that value, multiply it by the Wins Produced by the player, and I get the player’s market value.
- Target Contract Amount is just me giving you a look at the total dollar amount the player is worth in a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 year deal, as well as the player value rank based on the value of a five year deal with the player.
- Win Delta is meant as an objective measure of the value of the contract. Simply put it’s the difference between the wins paid for by the player’s contract and the actual wins expected from the player. Contract Rank is then a measure of the contracts with the best and worst surplus wins.
Got all that? Great, let’s get to the bonus features.
Yes, I’m so nice that I decided to include the list as an excel file for you to play with. I also decided to give you a few lists.
1. Every Player that signed a contract or got traded, ranked by the value of their contract:
Which loves puppies, draft picks, CP3, the Jared Dudley trade, Iggy, Tony, Jose, and Darren, and hates Earl Clark, the Paul Pierce/Gerald Wallace trade for both sides, Kevin Martin, Utah helping Golden State out for charity, bad draft picks, spiders, Carl Landry’s track record over the last three years, Tyreke, Al and Josh getting paid, David West and his tricky injury history and age, and Andrea Bargnani as a general principle.
2. Every remaining prospective free agent ranked by five year value (has to have played in the league in the past three years — sorry Greg Oden):
That one is pretty self explanatory.
Finally, I leave you with my very early win projection based on the players under contract:
The Rockets are totally killing it, take a bow Mr. Morey.