With three games today — Magic at Pacers, Bulls at Heat, and Clippers “at” Lakers — the 2013-14 NBA season is about to begin. Previews and predictions have been flying around the internet for a couple of weeks now. If you are looking for some Wins Produced based predictions, Box Score Geeks should have all 30 of their team previews up by tip-off time. They’re even hosting a contest where you can predict the number of games each team will win this year. You’ve only got until 7pm ET today to enter, so hurry!
But that’s not the only place you will see Wins Produced used in NBA previews this year. If you have the October 28 edition of ESPN the Magazine (you have to be an insider to view this on-line), previews are offered for each and every team. And as part of these previews, each team’s “optimal” line-up is noted. As noted at the start of the team preview section:
“Optimal Players: The most offensively efficient fivesome, based on sports economist David Berri’s pioneering stat, Wins Produced/48 minutes”
It should be noted that WP48 incorporates both offense and defense (and I did mention that at some point, but sometimes these details get overlooked in a production process). Nevertheless, it was very cool to see this for each team.
By the way, to arrive at these line-ups I projected each player’s WP48 for the upcoming season. To do that, I looked at each player’s performance over the last two years. For most players, this data came from NBA games, but for younger players, I also used data from college basketball. I then used these numbers to determine the most productive players at each position for each team.
This analysis took a while and I think the outcome was interesting. If you get a chance, take a look at the results.
– DJ (with some help from Devin)