Author Archives: Andres Alvarez

Kevin Durant profits from his teammates inability to get open.

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Dave Berri has posted his most recent piece over at Freakonomics:

Kevin Durant Impersonates Russell Westbrook for Sprint

Kevin Durant is actually a very impressive scorer. He is on a team though with two players on very different ends of the spectrum. James Harden is a highly efficient shooter. Russell Westbrook like to shoot a lot. Dave recounts a story Durant uses in a Sprint commercial. In his tale Durant takes a bad shot, but it’s not his fault as nobody was open. Despite some claims in the comment section about how this is a very likely scenario, it’s a bit iffy. After all, if you are double teamed that typically means someone is open. And in the NBA even the worst scorer can score when they are wide open.

Dave has a different theory. In the NBA points are a primary driver in what gets you paid. Players know this and thus it can pay to be selfish. On the other hand, this directly competes with the idea of team ball. Thus, a perfect compromise is if you are forced to shoot because it is not possible to play team ball. Perhaps the play we observe out of some star players is not in fact them being selfish. Rather it is them trying to be a team player but unfortunately they are unable to. Or maybe that’s just a story they use to get paid. I’ll let you decide using Durant’s explanation (brought to you by Sprint)

-Dre


In other news BarnesAndNoble.com will be selling Stumbling on Wins for $1.99 as its deal of the day this upcoming Saturday (May 12th, 2012, sorry those of you in the future that missed this awesome deal.) So if you don’t have it in your collection make sure to head over and pick it up!

Melo forgets to show up for the playoffs

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Writing about a top seed defeating a low seed isn’t exactly thrilling. While this series has had some drama, the simple fact is it ended just like everyone expected. We’ll do our due diligence though and wrap up the series and throw at least a few insults Melo’s way.

The Knicks leave their front court in the past

2012 New York Knicks Playoffs Round 1 Totals

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Jerome Jordan 5.0 1 3.7 0.662 0.05 17.5 1.3
Mike Bibby 1.0 5 118.1 0.184 0.45 2.6 1.3
Toney Douglas 1.0 1 8.3 0.244 0.04 4.5 0.8
Landry Fields 2.4 5 115.0 0.082 0.20 -0.5 -0.3
Steve Novak 3.6 5 94.7 0.072 0.14 -0.8 -0.3
Jared Jeffries 4.3 5 33.7 0.027 0.02 -2.2 -0.3
Tyson Chandler 5.0 5 166.6 0.070 0.24 -0.9 -0.6
Josh Harrellson 4.5 4 24.9 -0.051 -0.03 -4.7 -0.6
Amare Stoudemire 4.3 4 139.0 0.051 0.15 -1.5 -1.1
Baron Davis 1.0 4 97.4 -0.096 -0.19 -6.1 -3.1
Carmelo Anthony 3.3 5 204.1 -0.023 -0.10 -3.8 -3.2
Iman Shumpert 1.5 1 19.3 -0.209 -0.08 -9.6 -3.9
J.R. Smith 2.0 5 175.1 -0.186 -0.68 -8.9 -6.5
Total 5 1200 0.008 0.21 -14.1 -14.1

As always, to try and get a handle on the Knicks playoffs hopes we’d want to look at the top six of their roster. Let’s take quick rundown of the Knicks top players courtesy of the NBA Geek

Player Pos GP MP WP48 Wins
Tyson Chandler C 62 2061 0.311 13.34
Landry Fields SG 66 1894 0.170 6.71
Carmelo Anthony SF 55 1876 0.104 4.05
Steve Novak PF 54 1020 0.143 3.04
Jeremy Lin PG 35 940 0.131 2.56
J.R. Smith SF 35 967 0.108 2.19
Jared Jeffries PF 39 729 0.124 1.88

The Knicks top six consisted of an amazing Tyson Chandler, a very good Landry Fields, an average Melo, and an assortment of above average role players. Of course, Jeremy Lin managed to have a hot streak for the Knicks before getting injured. In the playoffs there were a few problems:

The Knicks had no point guard. Behind Lin the Knicks had nothing. Mike Bibby and Baron Davis both got major minutes. Bibby did indeed surprise a few people, but this was not a good recipe for success.

Amare came back. Amare has not been good in a while. Playing Melo at the 4 (which seemed to work well during Amare’s injury) or giving Jeffries or Novak more time seemed like a good idea. Instead the Knicks moved Melo back to the three, where Bron shuts down everyone, and left Jeffries on the bench.

The Knicks stars were mediocre The players pulling the Knicks this season have been Fields and Chandler. Fields has been up and down and against Dwyane Wade and LeBron James he did not play at a top level, which might be understandable. But Chandler not showing up is surprising. The Heat’s one weakness is supposed to be a lack of a legitimate big and Chandler wasn’t able to exploit that.

The former Nuggets didn’t show Melo and J.R. are filled to the brim with talent. Their problem, as Dan Filowitz has keenly observed, is their decision making skills. Sadly, the talented players did not show up and J.R. and Melo were two of the worst players for the Knicks.

Be afraid of the Heat

2012 Miami Heat Playoff Round 1 Totals

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
LeBron James 3.6 5 189.2 0.225 0.89 3.9 3.1
Dwyane Wade 1.8 5 179.4 0.215 0.80 3.6 2.7
Mario Chalmers 1.0 5 179.9 0.200 0.75 3.1 2.4
Mike Miller 2.5 5 116.0 0.234 0.56 4.2 2.0
Shane Battier 2.7 5 138.2 0.191 0.55 2.9 1.7
Chris Bosh 4.9 5 166.8 0.178 0.62 2.5 1.7
Joel Anthony 5.0 5 85.0 0.170 0.30 2.2 0.8
James Jones 2.5 4 19.8 0.245 0.10 4.5 0.5
Udonis Haslem 4.0 5 95.2 0.110 0.22 0.4 0.1
Norris Cole 1.0 3 18.1 0.060 0.02 -1.2 -0.2
Ronny Turiaf 5.0 1 7.2 0.043 0.01 -1.7 -0.3
Juwan Howard 4.0 1 5.2 -0.624 -0.07 -22.5 -2.4
Total 5 1200 0.190 4.76 14.2 14.2

With top Chicago Bulls dropping like victims in a horror film, the East seems to be merely a warm up to the Heat returning to the finals. There’s not too much surprising about this. For Heats fans in a gloating mood, let’s go down the list though.

Having the MVP in the playoffs is a good thing LeBron is the league MVP. Having that kind of player on your team in the playoffs is huge. His first series was up and down, but he’s already recorded one of the top games of the playoffs, leaving the Heat in a good spot.

Chris Bosh may be back Bosh’s play was iffy this season, but he played rather well in this series against one of the top centers in the league. If he keeps up his great play, the Heat may be unstoppable.

The Heat finally have health to their role players Few realize just how good the Heat could have been last season if not for injuries. Heading into the playoffs Haslem, Miller and Battier seem to be doing fine and that’s huge.

Chalmers has matured and Cole is on the bench Chalmers growth has been bumpy but this season he’s finally been playing well. Cole has been one of the few sore spots on this otherwise fantastic team. Luckily, Chalmers has kept it up and Cole has been left on the bench.

Summing up

In the battle between Melo and Bron, Bron took this easily. The Knicks got to end their drought of playoff wins at least, which had been going on for over a decade. The Knicks have bigger problems with which players will be able to come back next season and which will stick around. As for the Heat, we’ll just have to see if they’re for real when they take on the Pacers

-Dre

Indiana outpaces the Magic

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Stan Van Gundy or Dwight Howard? In the first round of the playoffs the Magic got a chance to test drive this choice with Dwight on the bench. The result do not look good for Stan. In a completely predictable feat, the Pacers took down the Magic in 5. There were a few surprises with the series, let’s check them out.

Where the heck was Ryan Anderson?

2012 Orlando Magic Playoffs Round 1 Totals

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Earl Clark 3.5 5 88.1 0.258 0.47 4.9 1.8
Ishmael Smith 1.0 1 4.6 0.409 0.04 9.6 0.9
Daniel Orton 5.0 4 9.1 0.251 0.05 4.7 0.2
Chris Duhon 1.0 5 61.0 0.038 0.05 -1.9 -0.5
Jason Richardson 2.4 5 148.1 0.070 0.22 -0.9 -0.6
J.J. Redick 2.0 5 123.3 0.063 0.16 -1.1 -0.6
Von Wafer 2.0 1 6.0 -0.089 -0.01 -5.9 -0.7
Quentin Richardson 2.6 5 74.1 0.019 0.03 -2.5 -0.8
Jameer Nelson 1.0 5 181.6 0.054 0.20 -1.4 -1.1
Justin Harper 4.0 1 4.6 -0.424 -0.04 -16.3 -1.6
Glen Davis 4.8 5 190.2 0.025 0.10 -2.3 -1.8
Hedo Turkoglu 3.4 5 162.1 -0.046 -0.15 -4.5 -3.0
Ryan Anderson 4.5 5 172.2 -0.093 -0.33 -6.0 -4.3
Total 5  1225  0.031  0.71 -10.6 -10.9

The Magic only had one player above average for the series with any real minutes and that was Earl Clark. What about the newly minted Most Improved Player of the Year? Well he decided to jump from playing great in the regular season to worse than Glen Davis in the postseason! Without Dwight or Ryan Anderson this team had no shot. Heck, the fact they won a game… it’s a miracle. Otis Smith made this team Dwight Howard, Ryan Anderson and not much else. Of course, both of them have contracts that are almost up so this may be one of the last playoff games the Magic see in a while.

Darren Collison makes a statement

2012 Indiana Pacers Round 1 Playoff Totals

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Darren Collison 1.0 5 93.7 0.499 0.97 12.4 4.9
Roy Hibbert 5.0 5 146.1 0.340 1.03 7.5 4.6
George Hill 1.4 5 159.3 0.276 0.91 5.5 3.6
Paul George 2.4 5 170.7 0.166 0.59 2.1 1.5
Lance Stephenson 2.0 2 4.9 0.262 0.03 5.1 0.3
Louis Amundson 4.0 5 37.3 0.154 0.12 1.7 0.3
David West 4.1 5 197.2 0.094 0.39 -0.1 -0.1
Leandro Barbosa 1.5 5 117.0 0.093 0.23 -0.2 -0.1
Dahntay Jones 2.6 1 4.6 0.053 0.01 -1.4 -0.1
A.J. Price 1.0 2 2.8 -0.273 -0.02 -11.6 -0.3
Jeff Pendergraph 5.0 2 2.8 -1.190 -0.07 -40.1 -1.2
Danny Granger 3.1 5 202.8 0.046 0.20 -1.6 -1.4
Tyler Hansbrough 4.9 5 86.0 -0.055 -0.10 -4.8 -1.7
Total 5 1225  0.168   4.29 10.7  11.0 

The Pacers were much more predictable. The Top Heavy Playoffs theory says that your best six players from the regular season dictate your playoff fate. In the regular season the top six Pacers were:

While Granger and West played iffy, the other top players played very well. This included an absolutely amazing game out of Collison to close out the series. Roy Hibbert, a true Most Improved Player candidate, decided to improve his play in the playoffs as well. Unfortunately the fate that awaits the Pacers is a surging Heat team. Well, it’s nice to get out of the first round.

Summing up

In terms of exciting playoff series I don’t how highly this one ranks. Would Dwight Howard have kept Hibbert from playing so great? Does this series deserve an asterisk? Given Anderson’s poor play and the fact that the top of the Pacers played so well, I’d say no. Frankly, any team with Glen Davis on the roster come playoff time need 3-4 Hall of Fame players to compensate. This series was just to decide who would fall to the Heat, and after the debacle in Orlando this season, I’m happy it was Indiana.

-Dre

Malcolm Gladwell discusses banning college football

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In half an hour Malcolm Gladwell will be on FORA.tv discussing if we should ban college football. You can catch that here:

http://fora.tv/live/intelligencesquared_us/college_football

College football is nothing new to Gladwell. Here are some highlights of his work:

 

How the Spurs upset the Jazz

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I’ll admit I was a little tongue and cheek with the title. A better one could have perhaps been: “How the Spurs made the Jazz upset.” Three games into the series the Spurs already had the Jazz waving the white flag. The Spurs were one of two teams to win 50 games in the shortened season. Chicago has been decimated by injuries to two of its top players giving the 76ers hope. The Jazz were not as lucky. Let’s run down what happened.

The Spurs showed no weakness

2012 San Antonio Spurs Playoffs Round 1 Totals
Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Tony Parker 1.0 4 131.1 0.253 0.69 4.8 3.3
Tim Duncan 4.5 4 120.5 0.235 0.59 4.2 2.7
Boris Diaw 4.5 4 96.3 0.227 0.46 4.0 2.0
Stephen Jackson 2.7 4 97.8 0.206 0.42 3.3 1.7
Kawhi Leonard 2.5 4 79.8 0.236 0.39 4.3 1.8
Danny Green 2.4 4 98.1 0.178 0.36 2.5 1.3
Gary Neal 1.2 4 52.4 0.270 0.30 5.3 1.5
DeJuan Blair 4.8 4 46.2 0.256 0.25 4.9 1.2
Manu Ginobili 2.5 4 98.7 0.101 0.21 0.0 0.0
Matt Bonner 4.0 4 64.5 0.137 0.18 1.2 0.4
Patty Mills 1.0 3 16.6 0.445 0.15 10.8 1.2
Tiago Splitter 5.0 3 45.7 0.086 0.08 -0.4 -0.1
James Anderson 2.5 4 12.3 -0.055 -0.01 -4.8 -0.3

The Tony Parker and Tim Duncan of old returned. In their last title run the Spurs were a three-headed beast consisting of Parker, Duncan and Ginobili. Ginobili’s first round was below his norms but the Spurs didn’t mind as they had the true Rookie of the Year Kawhi Leonard to hold up their backcourt. Leaving Charlotte has done wonders for Diaw and he played like a star against lesser competition.

The truly scary thing about the Spurs was their lack of weaknesses. Only two players played below average — Tiago Splitter and James Anderson — and they combined for less that 60 minutes played! The other thing is that heading into the playoffs this was the norm. In the last month of the regular season only Anderson, Jackson, Bonner and Cory Joseph played below average. Only Cory Joseph played truly poorly and he did not suit up for the playoffs. Jackson and Bonner picked it up and James Anderson only played limited minutes.

I have to give a shout out to the ultimate Spurs Fan E.J. Fischer (@glorioushubris) who saw the signs:

*Spurs opponents should be afraid and Bulls fans should be upset.

The Jazz’s depth hurt them

2012 Utah Jazz Playoffs Round 1 Totals
Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Derrick Favors 4.5 4 116.5 0.138 0.33 1.2 0.7
Al Jefferson 4.6 4 140.9 0.074 0.22 -0.8 -0.6
DeMarre Carroll 3.1 4 72.7 0.093 0.14 -0.2 -0.1
Josh Howard 2.2 4 62.8 0.079 0.10 -0.6 -0.2
Blake Ahearn 1.0 3 7.6 0.512 0.08 12.8 0.7
Jeremy Evans 3.0 2 7.4 0.500 0.08 12.5 1.0
Enes Kanter 5.0 4 43.0 -0.021 -0.02 -3.7 -0.8
Paul Millsap 3.5 4 138.9 -0.013 -0.04 -3.5 -2.5
Gordon Hayward 2.4 4 122.5 -0.057 -0.14 -4.8 -3.1
Alec Burks 2.0 4 63.0 -0.117 -0.15 -6.7 -2.2
Jamaal Tinsley 1.0 4 64.7 -0.238 -0.32 -10.5 -3.5
Devin Harris 1.0 4 119.9 -0.148 -0.37 -7.7 -4.8

Unlike the Spurs, who had almost everyone playing well, the Jazz had only one player above average in Favors. The playoffs may have actually exposed a problem for the Jazz. They came right up against the Top Heavy Playoffs. The concept is in the playoffs you shorten your bench and only play your best players — which typically leaves you with your top six players. This was actually a problem for the Jazz. Using the NBA Geek regular season totals for the Utah Jazz here’s a brief rundown of the Jazz’s top players and their position for the season:

  • Paul Millsap – PF
  • Gordon Hayward – SF
  • Al Jefferson – C
  • Derrick Favors – PF
  • Devin Harris – PG
  • Earl Watson – PG
  • Enes Kanter – C

The players that helped the Jazz had an astonishingly deep front court during the regular season. They didn’t have much in terms of the wings but hey, during the regular season being able to always have an above average big on the floor is huge. In the playoffs Earl Watson didn’t suit up. Haywood and Harris got torched by the Spurs backcourt. The Jazz’s deep front court couldn’t match up against the Spurs. And in fact in an attempt to play their top bigs Millsap played more at the SF, which may have hurt his performance.

Summing up

The Jazz as they are currently constructed are a team for the regular season. That is not a bad place to be! Having a plethora of above average bigs — most at a discounted price – is a good thing. If they fill in their backcourt they will be even stronger and if they can get a star, or Favors can become the star they need, they could be contending again in no time.

The Spurs as they are currently constructed are a team built for the regular season….and the postseason. They are both top heavy and deep. The Spurs of old have come together yet again and they are joined by young talented players and role players playing great. If you’re a Spurs fan the playoffs being exciting is nothing new. We’ll have to see how they stack up against their next opponents, who will hopefully put up more of a fight.

-Dre