Author Archives: Arturo

Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 Playoffs (5/2/2012): The Mercy Rule

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“Nature has no mercy at all. Nature says, “I’m going to snow. If you have on a bikini and no snowshoes, that’s tough. I am going to snow anyway.” -Maya Angelou

Back when I played in little league baseball there existed a mercy rule. The jist of it was as follows (or probably as I remember it): If after three innings you trailed by more than nine runs at the end of the inning the game was stopped and the score considered official.

It was a good rule that kept things from getting out of hand. Sadly for some of the teams tonight the NBA much like nature has no mercy.

Neither do fire extinguishers in Miami or the animators in Taiwan.

Let’s get to the boxscores and recaps.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. Today we switch to New Wins Produced courtesy of Nerd Numbers and there was much rejoicing.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
  • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
  • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
  • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
  • Posession and Play stats:Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers, Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
  • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA,True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
  • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player.Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
  • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
  • Points over Par. This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the games point margin.

Let’s be merciful and get to it shall we?

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Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 Playoffs (5/1/2012): The Missing Pieces

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“The graveyards are full of indispensable men” – Charles De Gaulle

Something was missing tonight.

Better yet, Someones..

Be it due to a regrettable injury (Rose) , a moment of insanity (Rondo) or a relunctance to play centers or an actual shortened playoff rotation (Oh George you rebel!), something was different in tonight’s pivotal game 2.

Let’s get to the boxscores and recaps.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. We start with the Original flavor Wins Produced. Please be adviced that this will change soon.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
  • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
  • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
  • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
  • Posession and Play stats:Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers, Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
  • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA,True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
  • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player.Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
  • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
  • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.
  • Points over Par. This is our points version of Wins Produced that tell you the direct effect of a player’s production on the games point margin.

Oh and by request all tables are now sorted by Points over Par per game.

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Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 NBA Playoffs : The First 11

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“It was close; but that’s the way it is in war. You win or lose, live or die — and the difference is just an eyelash.” -Douglas MacArthur

The playoffs are here. They are here in a big way.

In honor of the playoffs and in the spirits of crazy comebacks everywhere, I’m bringing back the recaps and advanced boxscores that I did last season.

For each and every game.

A few quick notes before we go:

  1. We start with the Original flavor Wins Produced. Please be adviced that this will change soon.
  2. The Boxscore contains:
  • Basic information: Player , Team, Game ID (Who,what and when)
  • Classic Stats:Points ,Shots, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds,Steals,Blocks, Assists (Because the classics are classics for a reason).
  • Simple spins on classics: % of Team Minutes (player minutes as % of total minutes available), Position (average player position)
  • Possesion and Play stats:Offensive Plays : Field Goal attempts + .434 Free Throw Attempts + Turnovers, Usage of Offensive Plays : % of Offensive plays used by player when in the game
  • All the classic Offensive Efficiency stats (and some slightly modded ones):Effective Field Goal %=(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA,True Shooting %=Pts / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA), Points per Shot = Pts/FGA, Points per Offensive Play= Pts/Offensive Plays
  • Do it Yourself Offensive Point Margin Stats:Offensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value created by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is: OPM = (Points per Play for Player- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Player.Defensive Point Margin: this is the marginal value surrendered by the player per offensive play spent. The calculation is:DPM = (Points per Play for Opponent- Avg Points per play for Player for League)*Offensive Plays for Opponent. I’m doing this one by position averages per game.Combined Margin: this is just OPM-DPM
  • Rebounding Rates: % of Rebounds on Offense, % of Rebounds on Defense.
  • The Classic Wins Produced stats (explained here) and my own opponent adjusted Wins Produced Stats (explained here). The difference? Classic assumes the opposing player is average. Opponent adjusted goes out and checks by position.
  • Points over Par.

Excited yet?

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Picking the Games for Round 1 of the 2012 NBA Playoffs

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“You have no responsibility to live up to what other people think you ought to accomplish. I have no responsibility to be like they expect me to be. It’s their mistake, not my failing.”
― Richard P. Feynman

I set a pretty high standard for myself. As I said in a recent post, I’ve been prepping like a madman recently.I had to compress what took about six months last year into about six nights.

The end result is the full slate of probability for every series and every outcome for Round 1 of the 2012 NBA playoffs. The reason for the time crunch is that I’m taking part in a certain stat geek smackdown (Yes it’s Year 6 of the ESPN Stat Geek smackdown now featuring 100% more Arturo!!!) . Last year I picked the playoffs for fun, this year we are taking this very seriously. Let’s talk method and then we’ll get to the picks by series.

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The 2012 Season in Review

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I’ve been prepping like a madman recently.

Why you may ask? Because the playoffs are coming and I’ve got a track record to defend.

Last Year I picked the playoffs and I picked them very well. My final record was 12-3 for picks. Add in our success with the draft and some very nice work with the NCAA tournament and you our bar has been set pretty high.

This post however is not really about looking forward rather it is about looking back at the recent past. As I said, I’ve been prepping and I’m a very visual person.

I can feel a very cool infograph coming. Like so:

As I’ve said, I’ve been prepping. Let’s walk everyone thru the graph above. In it you can see every player for every team ordered by team and by minute played in the last month. Players also have their Points over Par per 48 minutes listed. I’ve also taken the time to highlight the top 6 for every team in the last month (because the top 6 is very important) in dark blue and any players that have slipped from that top 6 (be it thru injury,illness or trade). Finally, I’ve also called out player levels (>+5 Superstar,>+2.5 Star,>+0 Starter, >-2.5 Bench, Everybody else is a Scrub).

I find it a very revealing picture.

As to just what it reveals about the playoffs?

You’ll just have to wait for a bit.

-Arturo