Author Archives: arturogalletti

How the Celtics got their Groove Back (maybe)

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“The graveyards are full of indispensable men.”- Charles de Gaulle

You may have heard but we put some new tools in for you. The tool is the game splits combined with out New Points over Par (POP) Metric. What our intent in putting this tool together was is pretty straightforward. We wanted:

  • To be able to look at individual games or periods as we wished very quickly
  • A number that very quickly and intuitively gave us an indication of the value of player contribution.

The classic Wins Produced formula contains all the information and while very accessible to card-carrying stat  geeks can be somewhat hard for the casual fan to follow. Wins are easy enough to understand on a season to season basis but on a game to game level we needed an adjustment. What we wanted really to know for each player is how many points better than the opposing team does that player make you? Or more simple put :

If Team A won by ten points who was responsible for those ten points?

The math was fairly straightforward. The result is fairly intuitive.

The basic unit is 3 points. A team of perfectly average players would be expected to score as many points as their opponents and win half their games. Add in stars and superstars and you win more. Play scrubs and bench players and you’re headed for the lottery.

The best part of this is that it allows us to ask all sorts of interesting questions:

Let’s put these tools to the test shall we?

Let’s start with a question near and dear to my heart. Have my beloved Celtics gotten their groove back and if so why. I may have some theories. The key idea is subtraction by addition.

Let’s start as with most stories at the beggining.

That’s the Boston Celtics as they looked for the 2010-2012 season. Please note that for the most part the Celtics shed all their negative POP players (via trades,cuts or injury) .  You might guess that I consider this a very smart strategy or a fair bit of luck. Given that, if you assumed that they went out and replaced those minutes with average to middling players things would go well.

What has actually happened is a bit different.

The Celts have dodged a Green,Baby and Nate bullet but have not avoided Jermaine, Marquis, Avery and Jermaine for the most part this season. Jermaine in particular has been problematic as he’s drawn minutes from other better players at the 4 and 5.

But a funny thing has happened since the Celts lost Mr. O’neal to injury and moved Mr. Garnett to the 5.

KG is seemingly back and this has improved the team in spite of the fact that both Rondo and Pierce have not played to par. As a Celtics fan , I find this very encouraging and have to wonder why the simple solution of moving the aging superstar PF to the 5 to make it easier on him had not occurred to the C’s before.

Not exactly a novel concept

 

Subtraction by addition, with apologies to Jeff Green and Jermaine O’neal and good riddance to Big Baby. Now If we can only find a decent swingman for the sixth man spot.

-Arturo

The Heat versus History : NBA Rankings for 2011-12 at midseason

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How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
— Sherlock Holmes, The Sign of the Four

  • 22 wins in a row, the Houston Rockets, January thru March of 2008 is the longest post merger win streak in the NBA.
  • 33 wins in a row, the Los Angeles Lakers, November of 1971 to January of 1972 is the longest win streak period in the history of the NBA.

Why in the world am I bringing this up? The Heat are in the midst of an 8 game winning streak and are playing the best ball in the league. Don’t believe me? Take a look (full explanation for everything that follows and previous rankings are here):

That’s the raw point margin numbers for the season for every team broken up into six game samples. Miami doesn’t quite look like the clear favorite there but no worries it gets much clearer when I adjust for opponents and schedule:

So the final four for last year (Miami,Chicago, OKC and Dallas) very much look like the prospective final four this year. San Antonio and Portland  are hovering with Orlando in the second group but Orlando (until we know the end of the Dwight saga) doesn’t really count.

But that’s not the fun bit. The fun bit starts when I calculate the remaining strength of schedule and simulate every game for the remainder of the season using my current expectation of performance. If we do that we end up with:

The top seven in the East seems pretty set barring trades or serious injuries. Even the top three seem pretty locked in with Miami projecting as a clear #1 followed by Chicago then the Sixers. Boston, Milwaukee and Cleveland are in a dog fight for the honor of having the Heat and Lebron blow a playoff game (just the one) to them during a first round exit. The West as always is much more interesting. OKC and Dallas could end up happening in Round 2.

That’s still not the fun bit. Remember how I said I simulated every single game for the remainder of the season?

The Heat look like a lock for the #1 seed for the playoffs and the best record in the league. It’s when I took a deeper look at the numbers that my eyes crossed.

Sometimes the math can make me feel like this (Image courtesy of xkcd.com)

The Heat have some crazy records in their reach:

  • 22 games in a row? 82 to 1
  • 23 in a row? 111 to 1
  • 33 in a row? 1360 to 1
  • 34 in a row? 1567 to 1

Hell, winning every remaining game is a 4013 to 1 shot. To put this in perspective, the two next closest teams are Chicago at about 18000 to 1 odds and OKC at 67000 to 1. The fact that this is even remotely possible is somewhat stunning and is only due to the fact that Miami is really good and the Eastern conference is really, really bad.

Keep in mind, that through all the simulations I did the most likely scenario sees the Heat lose about 7 times but again this is about something terrible unlikely becoming much less so. One prediction we can be sure of is that if this comes true our friend Mosi of the Miami Heat Index will be insufferable for the next few months.

So no pressure Lebron.

-Arturo

P.S. This is in no way a reverse jinx. All the math is on the level.

Fantasy trades starring Steve Nash, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol

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Nothing endures but change -Heraclitus

I admit I have a dirty little secret. In the darkness of the night, in the privacy of my own home, when no one is watching I like to pretend I’m something I’m not.

I like to play act like I’m an NBA GM. I like to play with the cap and fondle the player contracts. I like to properly massage my imaginary NBA rosters until I reach full satisfaction. Thankfully all the tools I need are available on the internet.

Because a trade can change your life

My name is Arturo and I am an NBA Trade Machine addict.

Now don’t be to quick to condemn me because I’m fairly certain you know someone who shares that particular passion. Hell, if you’re reading this website you’re what they would call a high risk.

Admit it, you like playing this game too.

Now, As with all proper games, It is important to set some ground rules. They are quite simple actually.

  1. The trade must work under the current cap rules. Thankfully we have ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine to help us with that.
  2. The trade must be something that could reasonably happen without some sort of a hostage crisis, credible threat of blackmail or Hornets GM David Stern being prominently involved.  Any moron can come up with a trade that works and turns his team into a super team (case in point). It must however be something that does not get you immediately laughed at by any of the teams involved.

Shall we play the trade Game? Your safeword for the day is Pau. We will proceed one theme at a time. For each, I will start slow and build to a climactic finish.

Trade theme: Free Steve Nash

Poor Steve Nash, like Jason Kidd he’s a historic point guard and a true dream date for an NBA fan on game night. Unlike Jason, he has not yet found the place where he can reach the promised land. Let’s see if we can help him get there while at the same time getting the Suns something in return.

Trade #1

Why do the Spurs do this?: Fully embrace the run and gun while clearing the deck for their young guns.
Why do the Suns do this?: Get two viable starters for Nash before he leaves. Do a solid by Steve and give a real chance to win one title
Who does the media think wins this trade? The Suns.
Who actually wins this trade? The Spurs and fans of basketball everywhere. This Spurs team would be a very real threat to win it all.

Trade #2

Why do the Sixers do this?: Go all in to try to win the title this year.
Why do the Suns do this?: Again get two viable cheap young starters for Nash before he leaves. Do a solid by Steve and give a real chance to win one title
Who does the media think wins this trade? The Sixers.
Who actually wins this trade? I’d call this dead even actually. The Sixers are giving up two good cheap pieces here. Their chances of winning the title or even making the finals are not great.

Trade theme: The Lakers lose their mind

Seriously, they’ve gone mental. They signed that ridiculous Kobe extension. They traded the best sixth man in the game (Lamar Odom) for a late first round pick. Not only that they gave him to a hated conference rival. Now they’re looking to give away Pau Gasol their leading win producer and MVP for the length of his stay in Laker Land. Who am I to stand in the way of such inspired lunacy? I believe the german word is schadenfruede.

Trade #1

  • Teams: T-wolves, Lakers
  • Trade:  Lakers trade Gasol/Barnes to the Twolves for Beasley/Webster and Williams
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the T-wolves do this?: You’re kidding right? This instantly makes them a contender.
Why do the Lakers do this?: BWAHAHAHAHAHA. They are dead set on being the second best basketball team in LA for the next five years perhaps? Sorry my Celtic fandom came out.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Minnesota
Who actually wins this trade? Everyone who is not a Lakers fan. Here’s the thing: this trade will not happen. I’m only putting this here because of some of the reporting out there. Any trade between these two teams would involve Gasol and Love as the principals and that is a non-starter. Let’s get some real options on the table.

Trade #2

Why do the Nets do this?: Deron is not staying. They think they can use Pau as a trade chip with the Magic.
Why do the Lakers do this?: Because Zombie Derek Fisher of course.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Lakers
Who actually wins this trade? New Jersey. Particularly because I think this doesn’t happen until after March 1st and multiple other player and picks are involved. That and the fact that if I made a deal with a Russian billionaire i’d expect him to win.

Trade #3

  • Teams: Bulls, Lakers
  • Trade:  Lakers trade Gasol/Barnes to the Bulls for Boozer/CJ Watson and Taj Gibson
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Bulls do this?: They believe Gasol gives them the final piece of the championship puzzle. Barnes is not chump change either.
Why do the Lakers do this?: Not actually a bad trade for them as they get a decent big back for Pau a point guard to takeover from Zombie Derek Fisher and Taj Gibson.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Chicago but it’s close
Who actually wins this trade? I think this is a fairly even trade actually. It helps the Lakers by giving them pieces. For the Bulls it puts them over the top as a championship contender. It makes way too much sense to me so it won’t happen.

Trade theme: The Superman Sweepstakes

You might have not heard but Dwight Howard is leaving Orlando. Some might argue this is not a done deal. I would simply point out that the big man always leaves the small market.

The evidence

Trade #1

  • Teams: Magic, Thunder
  • Trade: Thunder trade Westbrook/Perkins/Mohammed/Sefolosha to the Magic for Howard/Duhon and Smith
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Magic do this?: This is a significant haul for Orlando and would give them a starting Center in Perk as well as a budding if controversial star in Westbrook. Add in the extra pieces and it’s perceived as a good haul.
Why do the Thunder do this?:  This is the Thunder throwing all their chips in the middle of the table and calling all in. Harden, Durant and Dwight is enough to make a championship team.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Thunder.
Who actually wins this trade? This depends on a series of Factors. Can Oklahoma win it all? Could they resign Howard? Who exactly is Russell Westbrook going to be? Is he more Steve Nash or Allen Iverson? Both teams risk in this scenario. The potential gain is great though. Let’s move to more likely options though.

Trade #2

Why do the Magic do this?: This to me is fantastic salve to their fans. They get the highest perceived value player they can possibly get in Griffin and a young Starting Center. It keeps them as a playoff team in the east (which may be damming with faint praise) and gives them hope for the future
Why do the Clipper do this?:  You’re kidding right? If there is any scenario in which you wind up with Chris Paul and Dwight Howard on your team you do it. Throw in a very good and underrated Ryan Anderson and this is the easiest yes so far.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Magic. I’m totally serious.
Who actually wins this trade? The Clippers. It’s not even a question. If I told you twelve months ago one team had a chance to wind up with Paul and Howard you’d have been skeptical. If I said it was the Clippers, I would have been mocked. The Magic look good in this trade in getting an exciting and marketable star in Griffin. The Clippers take out an option on the Western Conference for the next decade

Trade #3

  • Teams: Magic, Knicks
  • Trade:  Knicks trade Melo and Amare to the Magic for Howard/Hedu and Redick
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Magic do this?: If the Magic get this offer a year ago, they do it in a heartbeat I think. Now they would have some reservations. They could sell their fans on this one though.
Why do the Knicks do this?:  Please be serious. A team of Lin,JR, Fields,Tyson,Howard is a scary prospect for the rest of the conference.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Again, twelve months ago I say Magic. Now? The debate leads PTI for a month at least.
Who actually wins this trade? Let’s call this trade the Lin dividend. The Knicks cannot do this trade in a Pre-Linsanity NBA simply because they could not keep Dwight with what would have been assumed to be a bare cupboard. The world has changed. If you are an agent and you care about money, the Knicks are your number #1 choice for your client. Dwight stays and becomes part of the NBA’s world poster team for the next decade. Orlando thinks it does well here but if you are a regular reader you know that scoring is overrated. They would spend the next few years fighting it out for the right to lose in the first round.

Trade #4

  • Teams: Magic, Lakers
  • Trade:  Lakers trade Gasol/Bynum and Barnes to the Magic for Howard/Hedu and Jameer
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Magic do this?: If offered, the Lakers’ godfather offer trumps everybody elses. This trade would completely rebuild the Magic and avoid that pesky post losing the franchise player hangover that Cleveland is mired in.
Why do the Lakers do this?:  The Lakers add arguably the best player in the league. They also address their point guard issues and get a serviceable piece in Hedu for the 3 and 4 position.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Lakers
Who actually wins this trade? This is a trade-off. Orlando wins the short term as they get the best possible deal for their departing superstar. Long term, it’s the Lakers as by having Dwight the Lakers remain relevant and are almost assured historically by virtue of having the best big to win a title at some point in his prime. The Lakers are virtually assured of keeping Dwight and can afford to wait for the remaining pieces to walk thru that door. In fact, the only reason I don’t call them a contender right now is that they stupidly gave Odom away. Orlando’s long term prospects are really tied to the health of Bynum. On paper, the Magic would have arguably the best Power Forward and Center in the East.  Throw in Ryan Anderson and the Magic’s prospects are suddenly abundant. Again, this trade makes way too much sense to actually happen.

I hope everyone enjoyed the game. When we do this again, we’ll get a little crazier.

-Arturo

Jeremy Lin and the Ghost of NBA Drafts Past

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“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Yes, before you ask, as is contractually required by any and all bloggers I will be talking about the unlikely Jeremy Lin. Now, I know we touched on this yesterday but our goal today is different. My take will be different. You see rather than waxing poetic about the unbelievable and unpredictable nature of basketball or focusing on how no one could have seen this coming, I’m going to focus on how we kind of did.

Because when faced with a supposedly unsolvable problem, we brought the science and science once again beat the experts.

The problem I’m alluding to is evaluating talent in the NBA draft. Anyone who knows me knows I love to write about the draft. For those who don’t, hello you must be new here. Just in case, let me illustrate that by throwing some links up for your viewing pleasure.

This lead to a lengthy draft strategy segment in my guide to running an NBA franchise (Build me a winner rev.2).

The key takeaway was that talent was that I needed to build an effective draft model to predict player performance based on publicly available data. I built two (go here for the model build parts 1 & part 2 ). In very general terms the models use the available data to predict future performance for each player coming into the draft from college. Based on that prediction a ranking is done and a draft recommendation is generated.

Now this model is a work in process, I build it then publish it then go back at some future point to review to see if it worked. I will make corrections as needed over time.

One of the key ideas is having a public build to allow for peer review and answer the skeptics.

For the purposes of this discussion for example I will focus on the last 2010 build (see here) because at the request of some of our loyal readers I had included the best undrafted rookies. Can you guess who was number one?

Do you want to answer for the class?

Mr. Lin actually was the number tenth overall ranked prospect on our draft board and easily the best undrafted. The model had him slightly below the draft treshold. Given this and a few other similar data points, I moved the treshold slightly down  to .090 WP48 for Model #1 and .060 WP48 for model #2. You will see the results of that in the numbers that follow.

Why should you care exactly?

It’ll make more sense if I just give you the full story:

That’s every drafted player coming from the NCAA’s from 1995 thru 2010 who’s played at least 400 minutes in the NBA (2010 shows additional players who haven’t played those minutes yet). It shows the player’s draft year, where he was picked, the model predictions and the player actuals for his first 4 years and his career. For 2010 for example, we can see both the Knicks starting guards in the top 10 but this could simply be coincidence. Did the models actually do anything?

A simple test is to look at correlation between the place the player was picked, where the models suggested picking him and actual rank by draft in terms of production. Draft order vs production shows minimal correlation with an R-square of about 5%. It jumps to 25% for the predicted production rank.

A more complex and interesting test is to look at:

  • The probability of landing a better than average player (>.090 WP48)
  • The probability of landing a good player (>.150 WP48)

If I do this for all picks by the Models as well as  all draft picks and Model picks taken after the top 5  picks I get:

The models perform as well or better than the majority of lottery picks.  The only real difference is superstar talent at the number one pick (which isn’t really an every year affair).

So to review, using publicly available data we built a model that picks draft winners at a 75% rate which is better in general than having the #1 pick in the draft and big winners at a 40% rate which is better than everything but the #1 pick.

Science!

-Arturo

P.S. How about one more bonus table?