Author Archives: James Brocato

Andre Iguodala Gets No Respect

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Andre Iguodala might be the Rodney Dangerfield of the NBA. No, really. He’s the best player on the team with the best efficiency differential in the league. Most players in that situation get serious MVP attention. But Iguodala wasn’t voted to start in the all-star game, and most prominent media analysts don’t think he even deserves a spot on the all-star team at all (for example, see here and here). No, despite putting up heroically consistent, solid numbers for his entire career, Iggy has never been on an All-Star team or an All-NBA Team. He also got snubbed in the 2006 Slam Dunk Contest when Nate Robinson got the trophy after taking hundreds of attempts to complete his dunks. Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony continues to rack up all-star starts despite habitually shooting bad shots, taking every night off on defense, losing consistently, and frankly, not playing exciting basketball (ok, I admit this is entirely subjective, but I just can’t see how shooting tough shots is exciting, especially when the majority don’t go in). After all, isn’t excitement what the all-star game is about? Before we go into the numbers, allow Iggy to make his all-star case on excitement alone:

Of course, just because a player throws down thunderous dunks doesn’t make him a great player. So let’s look at the numbers:

Player: Iguodala Carmelo Average SF
eFG% 0.502 0.431 0.477
FT% 0.608 0.827 0.767
STL48 2.4 1.5 1.6
AST48 7.1 5.8 3.3
TO48 2.6 4.2 2.5
ORB48 1.4 1.8 1.7
DRB48 7.8 6.5 5.6
BLK48 0.7 0.6 0.8
PF48 1.8 3.6 3.4
STL:TO 0.92 0.36 0.64
Net Poss 9.00 5.60 6.40
Points!48 17.6 31.2 19.1
WP48 0.269 0.059 0.099

So you mean to tell me Iguodala is statistically superior almost across the board to the so-called best forward in the East not named LeBron, but he still gets no respect or media all-star love? Not so fast, my friend. Nobody cares about possessions or shooting efficiency; the only thing that matters is points! Why else would anyone consider Kobe the greatest Laker of all time? But unlike Kobe and Carmelo, Andre Iguodala is more concerned about making his team better than shooting more to get more points. That’s why Iggy might not make the all-star team. That’s why the Sixers almost traded him for Monta Ellis. And that’s why he gets no respect.

At least one NBA player sees through the smoke screen. When Tracy Weissenberg of Slam Online asked this player whether he thinks the 76ers have a superstar, he replied,

Definitely, just my numbers alone, being a triple-double threat every single night. I just try to be a complete player…

The player, of course, was Iggy himself. And it goes to show: Andre Iguodala gets it. He added that when critics refer to players as “superstars,” they are “talking about scorers—25-point scorer, 30-point scorer,” which is not what Iggy is. No, Iguodala has more important aspirations than his point totals at the end of the day, and that is one of the big reasons the Sixers have been so successful.

Don’t believe me? Even Kobe, the greatest Laker of all time, recognizes Iggy’s completeness and thinks should be on the all-star team:

I wouldn’t categorize him as just a great defensive player. I think he has a good all-around game, and one of the reasons why I loved him coming out of Arizona was because of his size, ballhandling ability, his shooting ability, his passing ability. He is very well-rounded. Obviously, he has his hands full being in the Eastern Conference. They have a couple of pretty good forwards, so it’s a little tough for him, but he’s well deserving of it.

Take another look at the numbers. Iguodala is an efficient shooter. He takes reasonably good care of the basketball and creates possessions much better than average small forwards. He is probably one of the best passing forwards in the league. He rarely commits fouls, but is still considered one of the league’s top defenders. He is, by everyone’s estimation, a complete player. Yet, he doesn’t shoot the ball as many times as your favorite “stars” so he doesn’t get as many points as them. As a result, he does not, and probably never will, get the respect he deserves. While that may hurt Iguodala and his All-Star chances, the Sixers are probably ok with it.

-James

James Harden: The NBA’s Best 2-Guard?

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Like most years in recent memory, the NBA’s best sixth man this year is a crafty left-hander with sky high shooting percentages. Only this year his name isn’t Manu or Lamar. It’s twenty-two year old James Harden, who has been playing out of his mind so far this season. Indeed, he is not only the top candidate for the NBA’s 6th Man of the Year Award, but he is also one of the primary reasons for the Thunder’s early success.

Before the NBA

Harden was a real stat stuffer in college. He put up huge numbers as a freshman, but fell somewhat under the radar. Part of this was because Harden’s Sun Devils were only a .500 team in conference play. To be fair, the Pac-10 was very strong that season, and produced 5 lottery picks (3 of which were drafted in the top 5 overall). The other part was because Harden was overshadowed by perhaps the conference’s best freshman ever, Kevin Love. Regardless, Erich Doerr, who has done a considerable amount of college basketball analysis for this site, observed the following after Harden’s freshman season:

“SG James Harden of Arizona State shows a lot of statistical promise, though his numbers fade a bit when focusing on tougher competition. Harden would likely catch a lot more attention if Arizona State picked up the pace and allowed him to compile comparable raw stats to grab attention.”

Harden’s numbers declined noticeably his sophomore season, but no one noticed because he improved with regard to everyone’s favorite stat, points per game. Still, Win Score numbers favored Harden, and Doerr predicted him to be one of the best rookies in the 2008-09 NBA season.

From good to great

Harden was an above average player his rookie season. Since then, like most young Thunders, his production has increased relatively steadily. However, during last year’s playoffs, it skyrocketed. In fact, before the finals, Harden was the second most productive player in the playoffs. He was the Thunder’s most productive player for each of the first three rounds; suffice it to say, without Harden, the Zombies might not have made such a deep run. And perhaps not too surprisingly, he has continued to produce at this high level in the current regular season. Let’s take a look at why:

Player Harden in ’11 Harden in ’12 Average SG
eFG% 0.518 0.557 0.482
FT% 0.843 0.868 0.800
STL 2.00 1.20 1.6
AST 3.90 5.30 4.1
TO 2.30 2.90 2.8
ORB 0.90 1.00 1.00
DRB 4.70 5.60 4.3
BLK 0.50 0.30 0.4
PF 4.50 4.20 3.3
Net Poss 5.30 4.90 4.10
Points per 48 18.6 26.1 20.1
WP48 0.171 0.267 0.100

The numbers tell a simple story: Harden’s production is so high because his shooting is fantastic. This of course has both good and bad implications: it is good that so many of Harden’s shots go in the basket; it could be bad in that he might not be able to sustain this high percentage. Perhaps bad isn’t the right word; the point is that if Harden’s shooting regresses to the mean to some extent, his production might not stay so high. Given how high his effective field goal percentage is, this is very likely to happen. But even without the ridiculous shooting, Harden is a good player. In particular, he is a very good passer and rebounder. He has also generally been good at creating possessions and taking care of the basketball, though his steals and turnovers have been worse than usual this year.

Impact on the Thunder and Future Implications

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Because the Beard has been so productive this season, the impact he has had on his team is undeniable. Aside from Kevin Durant, no Thunder player has had a more positive impact on wins than James Harden. Including Durant, Harden has been the most productive per-minute player that has logged meaningful minutes on the team. Indeed, if Harden’s minutes were replaced with an average player (or Daequan Cook), the Thunders would be expected to win about two fewer games at this point in the young season.

Though he probably won’t sustain the ridiculous shooting numbers he currently has, Harden will likely remain a very productive player. And since he is only 22 (and still three years from his prime), things are looking very good for his career. Stat-ignoring Kobe lovers aside, it is hard to argue that Dwyane Wade isn’t the best shooting guard in the league right now (Editor’s note: with Wade’s injury which has also lowered his playing time it turns out right now Harden is arguably about as good as Wade and Kobe put together). But Wade is on the wrong side of 30, and we know what that means: sooner or later, his production will begin to fall. When it does, Harden will be there, waiting to take the crown (or at least start on his own team)

-James

Flip Gets the Blame…Again

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In what can only be described as an act of desperation, the Washington Wizards fired third year coach Flip Saunders after an abysmal 2-15 start. Firing coaches seems to be all the rage in big money sports these days. The reasoning behind it is simple: firing a coach is a lot easier than making good trades and free agency acquisitions, drafting well, and having patience. But while it’s relatively easy, firing coaches isn’t particularly helpful, at least in the NBA. In fact, it’s basically pointless. Indeed, in Stumbling on Wins, Dave Berri studied the impact of coaches in the NBA on player production. The study revealed that NBA coaches generally have little, if any, impact on their teams. Of course, that doesn’t mean a deck chair would do just as well as anyone as an NBA coach; rather, one NBA level coach probably isn’t going to produce results that are any different from what another NBA level coach would. However, there are a few coaches that have actually had a significant positive impact on their teams in the past. One is Phil Jackson. Another? That’s right, Flip Saunders. What makes this truly more amusing is that in defending the move Wizard’s owner Ted Leonsis made the claim that Flip was fired as the team should be doing better. If Flip is one of the few productive coaches then what has been the cause of his firings?

Flip Always Gets the Short End of the Stick

Saunders began his NBA coaching career in Minnesota the same year Kevin Garnett came into the league (I guess he started his career with luck on his side). During his tenure there, the Wolves were a generally above average team. The only problem was they couldn’t get out of the first round of the playoffs. Until they did. And suddenly expectations became sky high. After seven straight first round exits, Minnesota finally got to the conference championship, and the following season Saunders was fired after 50 games when the team was one game under .500. Of course, management failed to see the real reason for the team’s decline: Sam Cassell’s age finally caught up with him. Cassell’s WP48 dropped from 0.181 in 2003-04 to 0.061 in 2004-05, when he was 36. That and the team had a 14 million dollar (not enough to feed his family) black hole named Sprewell. Seriously, go look at his Wins Produced numbers. And you thought Carmelo was overrated…

Flip got another chance in Detroit when Larry Brown left the Pistons to coach the Knicks. Three years in Detroit, three conference championship appearances. Not to mention the best record in franchise history. But losing to the 2008 eventual champion Boston Celtics, who had the 3rd best team ever in terms of efficiency differential (after the 96 and 97 Bulls, respectively) wasn’t good enough, and Flip was fired again.

That brings us to the Washington Wizards, who were exceptionally bad during Flip’s first two years there, and look to be even worse this year, which of course is why he was fired.

The Real Problem in Washington

Let’s take a look at some team stats in order to understand where Washington struggles:

Team REB AST TO BLK STL PF eFG%
WAS 41.5 16.8 14.9 7.5 8.2 20.5 43.9%
AVG 42.3 20.4 15.1 5.0 8.0 20.3 48.0%

Washington is pretty close to average in all categories except two: assists and shooting efficiency. These two are obviously related, but there is a correlation-causation issue. It could be that players are taking bad shots instead of passing to open teammates. It could also be that shots that would go in when taken by most teams aren’t going in for the Wizards, and since no assist is credited for a missed shot, the Wiz don’t record as many assists as most teams. Both are probably true to some extent.

But since we don’t know for sure, let’s focus on Washington’s effective field goal percentage, which is the second worst in the league (somehow Sacramento’s is even worse), and over 4% below the league average. To put it mildly, Washington’s shooting is absolutely terrible. Of its six players with the most minutes, only one, JaVale McGee, has an above average effective field goal percentage. John Wall and Andray Blatche are especially bad. Both have an effective field goal percentage over 10% below average! You can look at the rest of the team at The NBA Geek.

The players don’t deserve all the blame though. They may be bad, but it’s not their fault they have to play on a team with a bunch of other bad players. It’s the management’s fault. Indeed, management has made some questionable decisions over the past year or so. First, it extended Andray Blatche’s contract. Blatche has been consistently well below average since he entered the league out of high school in 2005. In addition to shooting poorly, he is a poor rebounder, and he turns the ball over a lot. Now Washington is stuck paying him a mid level salary until 2015 unless they can dupe some sucker into trading something of value for him. Normally, I would urge the team to use its new power of amnesty on Blatche. But there’s a much more deserving player, which brings me to my next point: why didn’t Washington use the amnesty clause to waive Rashard Lewis?! Besides Kobe Bryant, Rashard Lewis makes the most money of everyone in the entire NBA! Waive him and the Wiz have twenty-two million dollars to play with. They could have had their pick from the free agent pool. In addition to Lewis, the Wizards made another big mistake in the offseason: they re-signed Nick Young, who was 6th from the bottom of my offseason free agent guide, valued at an estimated negative two million per year. So far, Young has lived up to this prediction. Luckily they only signed him for a year.

The poor management of the Wizards is particularly surprising because Ted Leonsis, the owner of the Wizards, endorsed Stumbling on Wins. Apparently he isn’t ready to apply what he learned in the book to real life.

Hope in the Capital

So You're Tellin' Me There's A Chance!

Washington can’t fix its past mistakes (like firing Flip Saunders). But it can control the future, and there is some hope. First, the team is super young, and its super young players, with the exception of John Wall and Jordan Crawford, have played well. Second, it isn’t too late to use the amnesty clause to waive Rashard Lewis.Third, Nick Young is only signed to a one year contract. With the money Lewis and Young would free up, Washington could make some big moves in free agency, and transform itself into a team that can at least compete. That is, if the new coach plays the right players.

Summing Up

The Wizards are really, really bad this year. Because of the team’s lack of success, it made a desperation move and fired its coach, Flip Saunders. But Saunders wasn’t the problem. The problem is that the team is riddled with bad players. And the team’s management has failed to remedy this problem by holding on to the bad players. Thus, Washington will continue to be bad in the absence of Saunders unless its management starts making good decisions. Unfortunately firing Flip doesn’t signal that the management understands this. Flip has been fired several times thanks to unrealistic expectations. While good moves can make a franchise good, unrealistic expectations seem to lead to bad franchises and fired coaches.

-James

LaMarcus Aldridge should know he’ll be an All-Star

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The following comes courtesy of James Brocato (@shut_up_and_jam) from the Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog Shut up and Jam.

After listening to an interview on Jim Rome’s radio show the other day, I learned that LaMarcus Aldridge knows a lot. He knows not to have caffeine before bed. He knows too much orange juice can be a bad thing.

And he knows that he shouldn’t hold his breath for a spot on the all star team this season. But that’s where he’s wrong.

You see, the Blazers are playing relatively well even without Brandon Roy, a number of media guys have prematurely proclaimed the team to be a real contender in the West this year, and LaMarcus is the leading scorer in Portland. As a matter of fact, he is the seventh leading scorer in the entire NBA. Unlike last year, the coaches will almost certainly recognize these all-important factors, and LaMarcus will finally get that spot on the all-star team he has deserved for so long. Does he really deserve it, though? Why don’t we take a look at how Aldridge stacks up against the average NBA Power Forward.

Stat LaMarcus Aldridge Average PF
eFG% 0.500 0.488
FT% 0.815 0.714
STL 1.7 1.4
AST 2.9 2.4
TO 2.0 2.5
REB 10.1 11.3
BLK 1.0 1.4
PF 4.8 4.8
STL:TO 0.85 0.56
AST:TO 1.45 0.96
Net Poss 9.80 10.2
Points!48 30.0 19.5
WP48 0.113 0.100

So far this season, Aldridge’s number are nearly identical to his numbers last season. He is an above average player, but just not by much. In fact, he hovers right around average with respect to nearly every single stat, with one big exception. You guessed it, points! And so goes the story of Aldridge’s career: lots of scoring, pretty average everywhere else. Patrick Minton (the NBA Geek) has hypothesized that Aldridge is so well regarded not only because he scores so much, but also because it looks so pretty when he does it.

If Aldridge Isn’t the Reason the Blazers Have Been Playing Well, Who Is?

The numbers reveal that Portland is a pretty well rounded team, and there is not one particular player that drives the team’s success. But four players have produced more for the Blazers this year than Aldridge: Gerald Wallace, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Marcus Camby. Wallace in his unabashed intensity, and his converse Camby, who defies age every year to quietly put up huge numbers, have both been super productive since they joined the league. They have also been remarkably unheralded despite their great play, though Camby won a Defensive Player of the Year award in 2006-07. As a side note, Aldridge better have his fingers crossed that Camby isn’t out too long, as it puts his probable all-star spot in jeopardy. As for Matthews and Batum, both have offered up above average numbers since entering the league. In fact, the only Blazers playing big minutes with bad numbers are Raymond Felton, who has traditionally been relatively productive, and Jamal Crawford. Crawford, who is generally regarded as one of the great offseason acquisitions this year has been very consistently below average throughout his career. You see, despite his remarkable prowess in scoring points!, he has been below average with respect to shooting efficiency, rebounds, and steals. If you didn’t already figure it out using the eye test, he shoots too much. Crawford aside though, Portland is a pretty good team not only because it has Aldridge, but because it has Wallace and Camby, and having Aldridge helps a little, too.

If Not Aldridge, Then Who?

It’s all but a foregone conclusion that Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin will be selected by the fans to start at the forward positions in the 2012 all-star game. Using that as a given, four power forwards out West stand out as better choices for the coaches than our friend LaMarcus: Kevin Love (did I even have to mention his name?), Pau Gasol, Paul Millsap, and Serge Ibaka. While most can probably see the merit in choosing Love and Gasol over Aldridge, Millsap and Ibaka might seem like a bit of a stretch. To be sure, let’s compare.

Player LaMarcus Aldridge Paul Millsap Serge Ibaka Average PF
eFG% 0.500 0.560 0.521 0.488
FT% 0.815 0.591 0.667 0.714
STL 1.7 2.9 1.0 1.4
AST 2.9 2.9 1.5 2.4
TO 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.5
REB 10.1 13.3 11.8 11.3
BLK 1.0 1.3 4.3 1.4
PF 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.8
STL:TO 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.6
AST:TO 1.5 1.7 0.8 1.0
Net Poss 9.8 14.5 11.0 10.2
Points!48 30.0 24.0 14.1 19.5
WP48 0.113 0.266 0.203 0.100

Millsap has put up above average numbers almost everywhere, but his shooting efficiency, which is through the roof, is what has made him great. Ibaka is also shooting well and appears to be the second coming of Dikembe Mutombo (okay, maybe not quite that good) with his shot blocking.

So what does all this mean? Well, Aldridge will probably be an all-star this year. But he shouldn’t be. Not that he is a bad player; on the contrary, he is above average. But he’s just not great. And there are other power forwards in the West that have been great this year. It’s nothing new though that playing well isn’t what sways the All-Star voters (the fans and the coaches). The strategy of scoring a lot of points on a good team is the best way to get an All-Star berth and that’s something Aldridge will know after this season.

-James

Is Derrick Rose better than Chris Paul?

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Editor’s Note: For those of you looking for Wins Produced Numbers for this year you need to look no further than The NBA Geek. You can find a plethora of easy to look through stats here: NBA Geeks – NBA Players

With the player comparison engine it’s also remarkably easy to compare players like say Chris Paul vs. Derrick Rose.

Enjoy!

Rose Has a Long Way to Go Before He Catches Paul

The general consensus in the media seems to be that if Derrick Rose isn’t as good as or better than Chris Paul, he isn’t far off. This is most clearly evidenced by Derrick Rose’s MVP trophy and his spot on the All-NBA First Team last season over Paul, who was named to the Third Team. Of course, in this kind of voting, the media generally only takes two things into account: Team Wins and Points Per Game. Despite the unambiguous reality that basketball is a team game, a great player on a bad team will probably never win an MVP. In addition, a great player who doesn’t score a lot of points probably won’t win either. This of course is due to the Yay! Points! thesis. While Chris Paul probably scores just enough points to be considered for the MVP award, the teams he has been on have never been quite good enough to get him there. Derrick Rose on the other hand was on the team with the best record in the NBA last season and he scored more points than all but three other players. But we know that scoring a lot of points isn’t all there is to being a great player, don’t we? In fact, out of context, a particular player’s points per game or total points is essentially meaningless with respect to that player’s contribution to his team’s winning percentage. Shooting efficiently, creating more possessions to give one’s team more opportunities, and taking care of the basketball in order to limit the opponent’s opportunities are much more important. So how do Rose and Paul stack up against the average point guard in important aspects of the game over each player’s career?

Paul vs. Rose in Career Numbers

Player Chris Paul Derrick Rose Average PG
eFG% 0.503 0.488 0.482
FT% 0.853 0.817 0.821
STL48 3.07 1.07 1.86
AST48 12.93 8.67 8.74
TO48 3.20 3.73 3.51
ORB48 0.93 1.33 0.90
DRB48 5.07 3.73 3.86
BLK48 0.13 0.53 0.32
PF48 3.33 2.00 3.45
STL:TO 0.96 0.29 0.53
AST:TO 4.04 2.32 2.49
NetPoss48 5.87 2.40 3.11
PPG! 18.6 20.9 10.2
WP48 0.304 0.113 0.100

The career numbers of the two players are barely even comparable. Paul is above average in almost everything. Rose is not. Rose has shot slightly more efficiently than the average point guard, and that is probably what has kept him above average for his career. But Paul’s numbers are better almost across the board. In particular, Paul’s steal to turnover ratio is over three times higher than Rose’s, Paul has shot much more efficiently, and Paul’s net possessions (a stat that captures all the possessions a player has created for his team minus the possessions he has given up to the opponent) are well over double Rose’s. To put it bluntly, Paul has helped his teams win much more than Rose has helped his. But Rose is still young, and has undeniably improved since his rookie season, so perhaps looking at last season will be more accurate:

Paul vs. Rose in 2010-11

Player Chris Paul Derrick Rose Average PG
eFG% 0.502 0.485 0.482
FT% 0.878 0.905 0.821
STL48 3.15 1.35 1.86
AST48 13.10 9.88 8.74
TO48 2.97 4.41 3.51
ORB48 0.64 1.28 0.90
DRB48 4.84 3.95 3.86
BLK48 0.08 0.81 0.32
PF48 3.28 2.14 3.45
STL:TO 1.06 0.31 0.53
AST:TO 4.41 2.24 2.49
NetPoss48 5.66 2.17 3.11
PPG! 15.9 25.0 10.2
WP48 0.309 0.161 0.100

Rose has improved with respect to free throw percentage, assists, and defensive rebounds. This has been enough to markedly improve his overall production. Indeed, Rose is well above average. However, Rose still struggles noticeably with respect to steals and turnovers. In fact, Rose’s net possessions were lower last season than they have been over his career. Also, Rose has not improved his field goal shooting efficiency. Consequently, Paul was nearly twice as productive as Rose last season.
J.A. Adande used Friday’s Bulls-Clippers game (a small sample size by anyone’s measure) to assert that Rose may now be the best all around point guard in the NBA, and not just “the best player at point guard.” Adande had previously used the latter title to describe Rose because he believed Paul was better at fulfilling the traditional duties of the point guard position. But, Friday’s game aside, Rose has not only failed to fulfill the position’s “traditional duties” as well as Paul, he has failed to perform any of the important duties of a basketball player as well as Paul has. Proponents of Rose can always point to the “eye test” just like they can point to the existence of Bigfoot, ghosts, and the flying spaghetti monster, but the numbers don’t lie. Paul is superior to Rose in the most important aspects of basketball: shooting efficiency, possession creation, and efficient use of possessions. Rose has a long way to go to catch up. He’s still young and can improve. That said, he’ll need to double his performance to match Paul.

Rose’s recent win over Chris Paul was impressive. We know from past experience that a single game may be enough to skew voters in regards to Chris Paul. We’re not sold just yet and it will take many more games from Derrick Rose before we’re ready to declare him better than Chris Paul.

-James