Category Archives: Basketball Stories

Should the Lakers part ways with Pau Gasol?

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With the “disappointing” — and by disappointing, I mean completely predictable — end to the Lakers season, there’s a question: Do the Lakers need to break up Pau and Kobe? Such a thought brings up memories of the original Shaq and Kobe split. While this blog may have a slightly negative Kobe tone, we did side with Kobe in 2004. If you dust off your copy of Wages of Wins, you can reminded of the following facts:

  • Kobe and Shaq were both very good players
  • Their last season together Kobe was close to overtaking Shaq’s production
  • Much of this had to do with the fact the Shaq had gotten old
  • Additionally Shaq had a market value of near $20 million a season

Now, here’s the interesting part about Shaq’s last season on the Lakers, he was 31 years old! This is now true of Pau Gasol! Let’s take a quick examination of Pau’s career, using the numbers from the NBA Geek:

Season Team Games Minutes WP48 Wins Produced
2001-2002 Memphis 82 3007 0.214 13.4
2002-2003 Memphis 82 2948 0.122 7.5
2003-2004 Memphis 78 2458 0.129 6.6
2004-2005 Memphis 56 1790 0.185 6.9
2005-2006 Memphis 80 3135 0.184 12.0
2006-2007 Memphis 59 2133 0.167 7.4
2007-2008 Memphis-L.A. Lakers 66 2351 0.159 7.8
2008-2009 L.A. Lakers 81 2999 0.234 14.6
2009-2010 L.A. Lakers 65 2403 0.264 13.2
2010-2011 L.A. Lakers 82 3041 0.265 16.8
2011-2012 L.A. Lakers 65 2430 0.142 7.2

Pau put up some of his best seasons when the Lakers made their trips to the finals. He in fact hit his top season two seasons ago. It’s possible playing with Kobe helped this. Another theory from Stumbling on Wins is that playing under the Zen-Master Phil Jackson was a key component. That said, Pau will be 32 next season, the age when most players start to fall apart. He has two seasons left on his contract worth almost $40 million. Worse still, he showed the starting signs of decline this season.

Now simply dumping Pau’s contract is not advisable. He’s still a good big and there is value there. However, if a good trade comes along for him, they should definitely take it. The second part of this though is if this is Pau vs. Kobe. It’s not. Kobe’s contract is even worse and every single thing that applies to Pau is even worse for Kobe. Kobe may still have trade value but his contract means the Lakers would need to take nearly $30 million in contracts back. It is unlikely any team with $30 million in good contracts wants to spend them on Kobe. The suggestion here is one Patrick Minton has had for a while: Amnesty Kobe! Some team will pick up some of the salary, and it will free up tons of cap space and also save some on the cap hit the Lakers currently incur.

Here is my advice for the Lakers

  • Trade Pau if there is a decent option
  • Amnesty Kobe
  • Pick up Bynum’s option
  • Don’t make any other dumb signings like Steve Blake, Metta World Peace or Derek Fisher

This could leave the Lakers in a decent spot going forward. Of course, doing this would mean admitting that when it comes to Pau vs. Kobe the real answer is neither!

-Dre

News Flash: LeBron James is amazing!

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A Familiar Face at the top

This news shouldn’t be anything new. In the odd worlds of using a player’s jewelry to define their legacy, sometimes a player’s actual performance gets lost. There is a lot to make fun of about LeBron, including the decision and his hairline. That said, it’s hard to debate he’s an amazing player. Something truly remarkable is LeBron’s great games so far in the playoffs.

Wins Produced breaks down how a player’s stats translate into wins. This can be confusing for individual games. Arturo decided to take a step back and translate wins into points, more specifically the edge any player gives their team. An average player would have a Points over Par (PoP) of 0.0. They’re not helping you but they’re not hurting you. For reference here’s the scale:

  • Average Player: PoP +0.0
  • Star: PoP +2.5
  • Super Star: PoP +5.0

A superstar gives your team a five point edge being on the court. With this scale in hand let’s point something out. LeBron James has played 10 playoff games so far this season. In 4 of them, he’s put up a PoP of +10!

Date Opponent Pos MP PoP/48 PoP
 4/28  vs. Knicks 3.7 31.7 +22.3 +14.7
 5/20  @Pacers 3.8 43.9 +13.2 +12.1
 5/13  vs. Pacers 3.5 43.2 +12.7 +11.4
 5/22 vs. Pacers 3.8 38.1 +13.7 +10.9

LeBron’s playoff performances this season have been great. On a scale where +5.0 is good, LeBron is off the charts! The key ingredients tend to be home games where he plays bigger. Both Indiana and Boston/Philadelphia should be very afraid.

-Dre

What’s up with Westbrook?

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Coach Nick (@bballsource) at BBallBreakdown had an astute observation recently:

Watching the playoffs, Westbrook hasn’t rubbed me the wrong way like he did in the regular season. Need to figure out why.

I happen to agree wholeheartedly with the statement. I don’t have Coach Nick’s keen eye for breaking down the game, but I am pretty good at breaking down the numbers. Let’s take a quick look at Westbrook this season and what’s changed.

Regular Season Westbrook

If we look at the top Thunder players courtesy of The NBA Geek here’s how the Thunder break down

Player Position Games Minutes Played WP48 Wins
Kevin Durant SF 66 2546 0.226 12.0
James Harden SG 62 1946 0.263 10.7
Serge Ibaka PF 66 1792 0.263 9.8
Russell Westbrook PG 66 2331 0.102 4.9

Westbrook has been an average point guard this season. Now, that’s not a bad thing. A team with three great players needs to be surrounded by at least average players (or else they end up like the Clippers) It may be surprising to think of Westbrook, who gets almost 24 points a game as average. We won’t disagree that he’s a good scorer. Let’s break down how Westbrook contributes to the Thunder using Win Score (the simplified version of Wins Produced) and Points over Par (translating stats into what point edge it gains your team) We can breakdown Westbrook:

Net Points is points minus field goal attempt and 0.44 per free throw attempt. Win Score is an approximation, so it won’t add up exactly with Wins Produced.

Stat Russell Westbrook Average PG PoP
Offensive Rebounds  2.0  0.9  1.1 
Net Points  1.7  0.9  0.8 
Steals  2.3  1.9  0.4 
Personal Fouls  3.0  3.4  0.4 
Defensive Rebounds  4.3  3.9  0.2 
Assists  7.5  8.3  -0.4 
Turnovers  4.9  3.5  -1.4 
 TOTAL  0.8

Westbrook is a good scorer. In fact when it comes to most things he’s above average. As a point guard though he’s had two major flaws this season. His assists and turnovers are really bad. If Westbrook were an average playmaker then his superb scoring and other skills would make him a star (which we’ve seen in the past) However, since his playmaking was so below average this season, his overall contribution amounted to “meh”. Now, what happened in the playoffs?

Westbrook in the playoffs

2011-2012 Top Thunder through round 2 of the Playoffs.

Player Position Games Minutes Played WP48 Wins
Kevin Durant SF 9 366.4 0.213 1.6
James Harden SG 9 273.2 0.253 1.4
Russell Westbrook PG 9 324.5 0.203 1.4
Serge Ibaka PF 9 254.0 0.229 1.2

Westbrook changed from being average to being a star. The Thunder changed from a three-headed beast to a four-headed beast and the previous two title holders fell in a mere nine games. What the heck happened to Westbrook?

Stat Russell Westbrook Average PG PoP
Net Points  2.6  0.9  1.7 
Turnovers  2.0  3.5  1.5 
Steals  2.5  1.9  0.6 
Offensive Rebounds  1.5  0.9  0.6 
Defensive Rebounds  4.7  3.9  0.4 
Personal Fouls  2.8  3.4  0.3 
Assists  5.9  8.3  -1.2 
 TOTAL  3.9

Westbrook’s already great scoring got better. Surprisingly though, his turnovers went from his biggest weakness to his second greatest strength! He didn’t improve his passing. In fact, it got worse. His improved scoring and decreased turnovers though, more than compensated. The rest of his game stayed solid and the result was a star performance.

Summing up

Westbrook’s strength has been in his scoring for several seasons now. This can be tremendously helpful to a team, provided Westbrook can manage to stay average as a playmaker. Doing this means controlling his assist to turnover ratio. His turnovers have been bad most of his career. If he can keep these in check though, he’s a great scorer on a great team. Here’s hoping he keeps it up.

-Dre

Why the Heat won without Bosh

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"Wade, is something missing?" "Doesn't matter"

When Bosh went down in the first game against the Pacers there was fear about what would happen. The Heat wound up in a 2-1 hole and there were lots of tales being spun. Let’s review a few key concepts though:

  • LeBron James is amazing and can play multiple positions
  • Dwyane Wade is amazing and his playing well impacts the Heat’s success
  • Things like the Bosh effect are possible but unlikely.

With a convincing win to even up the season, let’s see if these hold up. Same old disclaimer: This is a small sample size but we’re sports fans and waiting until the playoffs are completely done to discuss them isn’t fun.

LeBron is amazing and can play multiple positions

Arturo’s claim was that not only could the Heat handle the loss of Bosh as a big, they had a great alternative. They could simply have LeBron James handle playing more PF and he would do that spectacularly. In the three games since Bosh has gone down here are LeBron’s per 48 minute stats compared to an average power forward’s. Stats after Points over Par are listed in order of importance.

Stat LeBron James Average PF
PoP +6.9  0.0 
Steals  3.8 1.2 
Assists  6.4  2.4 
Personal Fouls  0.8  4.5 
Net Points  1.9  1.2 
Offensive Rebounds  4.2  3.6 
Defensive Rebounds  8.7  7.9 
Blocks  0.8  1.6 
Turnovers  4.2  2.4 

With the exception of blocks and turnovers Bron has done everything a power forward is supposed to do. He also brings his amazing ball handling skills to the table too. An interesting note is that while Bron has been scoring and rebounding well, the key driver in his production has been his steals, passing and the fact that he hasn’t been fouling! Alright, so Bron can clearly play a big man. In fact he’s able to play it at a level not seen since Elgin Baylor in 1961! The skills of a point guard in the body of a big man is a recipe for success.

Dwyane Wade is amazing his play matters to the Heat’s success

Dwyane Wade is a great player. A key component behind behind a great player is that your play impacts your team’s performance. After all, if Wade played terribly and the Heat still played great then it would be hard to argue he mattered. When the Heat tied up the series with the Pacers it turns out that Wade played very well. In fact, behind Bron’s 40-18-9 performance was a great Wade.

Miami Heat’s top performers on 2012-05-20

Player Pos MP PoP/48 PoP/G
LeBron James 3.8 43.9 +13.2 +12.1
Dwyane Wade 1.8 40.8 +10.9 +9.2

Wade scored 30 points on 58.5% true shooting and also had six assists. As you may recall,  Wade’s primary drivers in his performance are scoring and passing. With him back to old levels the Heat took down the Pacers. Now what about the Bosh effect?

The Bosh effect

Chris Yeh decided to take a microscope to the small sample size of games without Bosh and with Wade.  The following is all his analysis.

The full season totals for Bron, Wade and Bosh was as follows:

As we’d expect: LeBron kicks ass, Wade’s pretty good, Bosh sucks. Now let’s look just at the three stretches where Bosh missed games:

March 1-4 (3 games)

  • LeBron: +12.8
  • Wade: +1.3

April 18-26 (6 games)

  • LeBron: +10.6
  • Wade: +5.5
In the regular season, LeBron played even better in Bosh’s absence, while Wade was pretty good. Then came the playoffs:

May 15-17 (2 games)

  • LeBron: +3.5
  • Wade: -7.5

Wow. LeBron has been a poor man’s Matt Barnes, while Wade has been worse than regular season Juwan Howard (-7.1). The only worse player on the Heat? Eddy Curry. All conclusions subject to the law of small numbers, but it looks like there is no Bosh Effect. In the regular season, his absence didn’t negatively impact the Heat’s Big Two. The Pacers just stuck it to the Heat. Thanks Chris!

Summing up

Wade really matters to the Heat’s success. This is not anything new. If Wade plays poorly the natural response is to ask why. It’s possible he just had a bad game or two. It’s possible he’s injured. Yes, it’s even possible that the lack of Bosh is why he’s played worse. All I can say is that when trying to explain a player’s performance that going for the least likely explanation first may not make the most sense. This is even more true when there is pretty much no evidence that the least likely explanation is even true. Heat fans should be happy that Wade appears to be back and that the Bosh effect may not exist. We’ll have to wait and see how this series plays and then we can overanalyze two or three games.

-Dre

 

 

Fanservice: Opponent Adjusted Wins Produced for Round 1

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I sometimes take requests.

Reader Tundra Gator commented:

“Nobody has yet answered my question about how Bynum could be considered the most valuable Laker in the Nuggets series. He had a couple of good games but more terrible games in which he didn’t care on the defensive end and allowed numerous (that’s being too conservative, maybe plethora?) defensive breakdowns due to his laziness on defense.”

My answer for this is Opponent Adjusted Wins Produced. The difference is that for regular Wins Produced we assume that you are facing average opposition and all the adjustment are treated like team activities . This is for the most part a good approximation.

The error on it increases when we have a small sample size or an egregiously bad defender. I’m looking at you Bynum.

One of the ways we attack this is by working out opponent adjusted stats. In the simplest terms, I’m calculating a player’s numbers against the direct opposition he’s facing. So Opponent adjusted Points over Par is how many points better or worse than the opposition you were.

Opponent adjusted looks at how much you outplayed or got outplayed by the other guy.

And by Team:

And given how horrible the Jazz guards were, We have a new First round MVP in Tony Parker.

-Arturo