At least Denver didn’t go out like a punk

I don’t mind dying, I just don’t wanna go out like some punk. – Samuel L Jackon

As a Nuggets fan I’m used to first round exits. I wasn’t expecting anything more this season but I just wanted to go out with dignity. I got what I wanted. I still get to end the series upset. Of course, the things I’m upset with are the things are the things that have upset me for most of the season. Let’s review.

Harrington kills the Nuggets

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Ty Lawson 1.0 7 241.9 0.203 1.02 3.2 2.3
Andre Miller 1.5 7 199.7 0.204 0.85 3.3 1.9
JaVale McGee 5.0 7 181.2 0.226 0.85 3.9 2.1
Kenneth Faried 4.0 7 192.1 0.210 0.84 3.4 2.0
Corey Brewer 2.9 7 116.5 0.121 0.29 0.7 0.2
Arron Afflalo 2.1 7 229.4 0.041 0.20 -1.8 -1.2
Julyan Stone 3.0 2 5.2 0.555 0.06 14.2 0.8
Timofey Mozgov 5.0 7 98.9 0.015 0.03 -2.6 -0.8
Jordan Hamilton 3.0 2 5.2 0.026 0.00 -2.3 -0.1
Kosta Koufos 4.7 3 25.8 -0.018 -0.01 -3.6 -0.7
Danilo Gallinari 3.1 7 221.5 -0.005 -0.02 -3.2 -2.1
Al Harrington 4.2 7 162.6 -0.159 -0.54 -8.0 -3.9
Total 7 1680 0.102 3.58 0.5 0.5

Has Lawson arrived? Lawson has shown flashes of brilliance. In game 6 he played an amazing game. He followed it up with a great game that ended in a loss. This was after a season where he lead the Nuggets in Wins Produced. This could be huge for the Nuggets.

McGee and Faried are good There’s been a lot of questions about if these two can really run the Nuggets front court. Against arguably the toughest front court in the League both of these players played great. My only complaint is their lack of playing time.

Dre Miller? He’s been one of my favorite players but I was sure he was past his prime. He played amazing in the playoffs. It was probably his last stint with the Nuggets, but I’m happy he went down swinging.

Harrington and Karl killed us Harrington is a terrible player. He’s always been a terrible player. This series was no difference. He was the worst player on the Nuggets and with two losses decided by fewer than five points that’s huge. The bigger complaint is that our terrible coach in George Karl saw fit to give Harrington so many minutes. This point kills me so much.

Where was Gallo? This last part hurts. I loved the trade for Gallo and he played well for the Nuggets. He was injured this season and he just hasn’t come back. I kept hoping he’d show up this series but sadly it didn’t happen.

 Kobe, Kobe, Kobe

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Andrew Bynum 5.0 7 262.1 0.284 1.55 5.8 4.5
Pau Gasol 4.0 7 255.7 0.160 0.85 1.9 1.4
Steve Blake 1.0 7 193.2 0.134 0.54 1.1 0.6
Jordan Hill 4.5 7 141.1 0.092 0.27 -0.2 -0.1
Kobe Bryant 2.1 7 282.0 0.041 0.24 -1.8 -1.5
Devin Ebanks 3.0 7 106.1 0.091 0.20 -0.2 -0.1
Metta World Peace 3.0 1 43.7 0.126 0.11 0.8 0.8
Troy Murphy 4.5 1 6.4 0.491 0.07 12.2 1.6
Darius Morris 1.0 2 5.1 0.497 0.05 12.4 0.7
Christian Eyenga 3.0 3 9.2 0.169 0.03 2.2 0.1
Andrew Goudelock 1.5 2 2.3 0.032 0.00 -2.1 -0.0
Josh McRoberts 4.0 3 5.8 -0.357 -0.04 -14.2 -0.6
Ramon Sessions 1.4 7 228.0 -0.027 -0.13 -3.9 -2.7
Matt Barnes 3.0 7 139.3 -0.125 -0.36 -7.0 -2.9
 Total 7 1680 0.097 3.39 -0.4 -0.4

Bynum and Gasol are good There was a rumor if the Lakers lost that Bynum, Gasol and Mike Brown were gone. Patrick pointed out how stupid this was. These two players pretty much single handedly kept the Lakers in the series.

Steve Blake? No seriously, Steve Blake vs. Andre Miller was a major factor in this series? Am I going crazy? Apparently former Nugget guards felt obligated to show up. I’ll admit I was surprised.

Where did Sessions and Barnes go? Barnes was a top player during the regular season. Sessions finally gave the Lakers a real point guard. Both of them vanished in the playoffs. They weren’t as bad as Harrington and Gallinari…but they were close.

Kobe will get the credit Kobe did not play well..at all. Yet his high PPG and the fact he called out his bigs will certainly help keep his aura of greatness alive. At this point I pretty much have to give up. If the Lakers win Kobe will get the credit and it doesn’t matter what he does.

Summing up

To start the series Arturo said the Nuggets could win. They got so close! In fact, they outscored the Lakers, so I guess that’s a moral victory. The real problem came down to coaching. Your coach can’t sit your great players in the playoffs and hope to win. Notice the Lakers played both Gasol and Bynum over 250 minutes, whereas neither Faried or McGee hit 200 minutes. The difference of 60+ minutes between the two teams’ sets of bigs could easily have changed this series from a seven game nail biter to a six game victory for the Nuggets. I’ll go into the offseason the same as I always seem to: optimistic about the Nuggets roster and pessimistic about how Karl will play them.

-Dre

Barnes and Noble Deal of the Day: Stumbling on Wins for $1.99



As we have noted over the past couple of weeks, today (May12th 2012) Barnes&Noble will be offering Stumbling on Wins as the Deal of the Day at an absolute steal for $1.99!

The book addresses many questions, including…

  • Was Isiah Thomas a victim of his player budget?
  • Do hockey goalies matter?
  • Why should basketball players go pro after appearing in the Final Four?
  • Do coaches have any impact on an NBA player’s performance?

Also, if you’d like to help spread the word please pass this along.

Picking the Games for Round 2 of the 2012 NBA Playoffs

“Sometimes we make guesses because we wish,with our limited knowledge, to say as much as we can about a situation.”
― Matthew Sands ”Feynman Lectures on Physics/Vol 1 Ch 06 – Probability”

However much we may argue against it, there is a great degree of randomness to the universe. We can set up a set of general rules and parameters to model and identify most anything but the randomness of the universe guarantees that prediction and modeling are only approximations. We can only really tell you were something might be within a certain level of probability given a certain set of of conditions but really no plan of action survives first contact with the enemy or with ourselves.

Case in point, when I ran the model for every series and every outcome for Round 1 of the 2012 NBA playoffs for Year 6 of the ESPN Stat Geek smackdown, now featuring 100% more Arturo, the model kept insisting that Derrick Rose would not be able to stay on the court. I read all the scouting and thought I knew better and we all know how that turned out.

With that said, My round 1 picks have done well. I’m still at 5-1 thru six series with a real chance at the outright lead (and yes I realize I am relying on George Karl and Vinnie del Negro). Now yesterday I got an email from Mr.Abbot requesting the round 2 picks for all the series that are set and those that are not  by two pm today.

Did I mentioned my laptop died, taking all my work of the last month with it, last thursday night? With my monthly backup scheduled on that Friday?

Yeah, Life is random but Murphy is a bitch. Let’s talk picks

That is  the full slate of probability for every possible series and every outcome for Round 2 of the 2012 NBA playoffs.

Continue reading

Chicago loses its top three and the series

The Dallas Mavericks in 2007 and the San Antonio Spurs in 2011 both ended the season with the best record in the league and also went home after a mere six playoff games. I’m sure this won’t make the Bulls and their fans feel that much better but hopefully it takes some of the sting away. When the best team in the league falls though, there has to be some explanation. Of course, this is not  a difficult nut to crack. The Bulls lost their top players (and no I’m not talking Derrick Rose) but let’s sift through the wreckage for due diligence shall we?

The Bulls: the horror movie victims

2011-2012 Chicago Bulls Playoffs Round 1 Totals

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Joakim Noah 4.6 3 99.1 0.459 0.95 11.2 7.7
Luol Deng 3.0 6 227.8 0.181 0.86 2.6 2.0
Taj Gibson 4.0 6 137.3 0.227 0.65 4.0 1.9
Derrick Rose 1.0 1 37.2 0.152 0.12 1.6 1.3
Ronnie Brewer 2.0 5 82.6 0.110 0.19 0.3 0.1
Kyle Korver 2.1 6 93.9 0.096 0.19 -0.1 -0.0
Omer Asik 5.0 6 128.2 0.091 0.24 -0.2 -0.1
Jimmy Butler 2.5 3 4.1 -0.086 -0.01 -5.8 -0.2
Richard Hamilton 2.3 6 170.8 0.049 0.17 -1.6 -0.9
John Lucas 1.0 5 94.1 -0.006 -0.01 -3.3 -1.3
C.J. Watson 1.0 6 164.5 -0.071 -0.24 -5.3 -3.0
Carlos Boozer 4.5 6 200.4 -0.110 -0.46 -6.5 -4.5
Totals  1440  0.088  2.65  -1.7  -1.7 

Losing Noah really hurt…a lot Noah was the best player for the Bulls in the regular season. Having a top center is a pretty nice recipe for success in the NBA. Losing Noah in the middle of the series hurt a ton. It hurts even more when you consider he was on the bench at the end of a one point loss to end the series.

Losing Derrick Rose really hurt…a lot Derrick Rose may not show up as the strongest Bull. The problem the Bulls have is they have nothing behind him. In the game Rose went down with injury he played very well. John Lucas was the exact opposite of that and C.J. Watson was even worse! You replace a good point guard with a terrible one in the playoffs and it’s gonna hurt.

Carlos Boozer disappeared In the regular season Boozer was an alright player. In the postseason he was worse than Glen Davis! I won’t bemoan a player too much for having a stretch of bad games. That said, his timing could have been better.

Picking up Rip Hamilton was really stupid To start the season the Bulls picked up Rip Hamilton. This was a mistake. A point we made was that the Bulls had better shooting guard options. This was definitely true in the playoffs where both Brewer and Korver were much better choices.

76ers airdrop in Spencer Hawes…again

2011-2012 Philadelphia 76ers Playoffs Round 1 Totals

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Jrue Holiday 1.0 6 232.3 0.195 0.94 3.0 2.4
Andre Iguodala 2.8 6 240.9 0.140 0.70 1.3 1.1
Spencer Hawes 5.0 6 168.2 0.174 0.61 2.3 1.4
Thaddeus Young 4.0 6 131.4 0.135 0.37 1.1 0.5
Elton Brand 4.4 6 195.1 0.061 0.25 -1.2 -0.8
Lavoy Allen 4.6 5 78.7 0.154 0.25 1.7 0.6
Evan Turner 2.5 6 201.8 0.048 0.20 -1.6 -1.1
Lou Williams 1.6 6 158.2 0.020 0.07 -2.5 -1.4
Jodie Meeks 2.0 6 32.2 -0.023 -0.02 -3.8 -0.4
Sam Young 3.0 1 1.2 -3.056 -0.07 -98.1 -2.4
Total 6 1440 0.110 3.3 8.3 8.3

Jrue Holiday had a great series During the regular season Jrue Holiday was an average point guard. Against a team with nothing at the point Jrue played great. Will this keep up against a team with one of the top point guards in the league? We’ll find out.

Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young are good These two players have been staples of the 76ers for years. In the playoffs they kept up their stellar play. Iguodala is one of my favorite underappreciated players, so I’m happy to see him advance.

Spencer Hawes, where did that come from? Way back to start the season the 76ers were playing like one of the greatest teams ever. A key part was that Spencer Hawes, who had normally been terrible, decided to play like a superstar. Then he got injured and we were left to wonder if it was all a dream. At least in the first round of the playoffs we’re seeing that same Hawes show up again. Will he be around for round 2?

Summing up

In the end this upset has a lot to do with bad luck and bad timing. Of course, such things are the norm in the NBA. My advice to the Bulls is very similar from last season. They played great and should focus on what worked well. I’m hoping they don’t overreact and do something foolish like sign another player like Rip Hamilton. The 76ers capitalized in the playoffs and I’m happy for that. We’ll have to see how they look against a team that is not banged up and I’m looking forward to that.

-Dre

Kevin Durant profits from his teammates inability to get open.

Dave Berri has posted his most recent piece over at Freakonomics:

Kevin Durant Impersonates Russell Westbrook for Sprint

Kevin Durant is actually a very impressive scorer. He is on a team though with two players on very different ends of the spectrum. James Harden is a highly efficient shooter. Russell Westbrook like to shoot a lot. Dave recounts a story Durant uses in a Sprint commercial. In his tale Durant takes a bad shot, but it’s not his fault as nobody was open. Despite some claims in the comment section about how this is a very likely scenario, it’s a bit iffy. After all, if you are double teamed that typically means someone is open. And in the NBA even the worst scorer can score when they are wide open.

Dave has a different theory. In the NBA points are a primary driver in what gets you paid. Players know this and thus it can pay to be selfish. On the other hand, this directly competes with the idea of team ball. Thus, a perfect compromise is if you are forced to shoot because it is not possible to play team ball. Perhaps the play we observe out of some star players is not in fact them being selfish. Rather it is them trying to be a team player but unfortunately they are unable to. Or maybe that’s just a story they use to get paid. I’ll let you decide using Durant’s explanation (brought to you by Sprint)

-Dre


In other news BarnesAndNoble.com will be selling Stumbling on Wins for $1.99 as its deal of the day this upcoming Saturday (May 12th, 2012, sorry those of you in the future that missed this awesome deal.) So if you don’t have it in your collection make sure to head over and pick it up!