Category Archives: Devin

6 NBA cities that don’t deserve a team

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With all the talk of “big market” and “small market” teams, one thing has been lost during lockout talks: some NBA cities just can’t support a team. To illustrate that in this post I’ve put together a list of six cities that, for various reasons, are very difficult markets for their NBA teams.

A quick explanation of terms is at the bottom, because we know that everyone would rather get to the good stuff first!

6. Salt Lake City

I remembered to turn out the lights when I left.

  • Metro Population: 1,124,197
  • Pro teams: 2
  • Total Personal Income:$55.5 Billion
  • Available Personal Income:-$5.9 billion
  • Win/Loss Record: 1633 Wins, 369 Losses, 54.4%
  • Playoff Appearances: 24 times in 37 years, 64.9%

The Jazz have been very, very good in Salt Lake City, sporting an impressive W-L record and reaching the playoffs in a high percentage of their years in the league. Fan support seems to be quite solid too. But the truth of the matter is that Salt Lake City just isn’t big enough for an NBA team. Even nearly three decades of sustained success on the court isn’t going to change that reality.

5. New Orleans

You know leaving New Orleans was for the best.

  • Metro Population: 1,167,764
  • Pro teams: 2
  • Total Personal Income:$89.3 Billion
  • Available Personal Income: -$18.4 billion
  • Win/Loss Record: 913 Wins, 941 Losses, 49.2%
  • Playoff Appearances: 12 times in 23 years, 52.2%

Even in the best of times, New Orleans was not a very big market. The Saints have been in New Orleans since the 60s, and there wasn’t enough local income available to the Hornets when they first moved there in 2002. Then Hurricane Katrina hit, which only made everything worse. Eventually, former owner George Shinn had to sell the team to the NBA, and it’s only a matter of time before the team is moved somewhere else.

4. Minneapolis

Hey Kevin Love, come on over!

  • Metro Population: 3,317,308
  • Pro teams: 4
  • Total Personal Income:$233.3 Billion
  • Available Personal Income: -$39.4 billion
  • Win/Loss Record: 705 Wins, 1067 Losses, 39.8%
  • Playoff Appearances: 8 times in 22 years, 36.4%

The Twin Cities are actually a pretty big market — the 18th largest in Canada and the US, in fact. However, the area has four professional sports teams, and because of this the TPI is significantly negative. It’s likely that either the Timberwolves or the Wild will find themselves playing somewhere else in a couple of years. And although the T-Wolves have been in the area longer, they have a terrible track record, and seem more likely to be moved.

3. Milwaukee

No one wants to be here.

  • Metro Population: 1,555,908
  • Pro teams: 2
  • Total Personal Income:$178.4 Billion
  • Available Personal Income: -$58.8 billion
  • Win/Loss Record: 1825 Wins, 1669 Losses, 52.2%
  • Playoff Appearances: 26 times in 43 years, 60.5%

Another shame. The Bucks are a historically good team in a small market, but the problem is that the area also has an MLB team. Also not very helpful is the fact that the franchise’s best days are behind it, with a disproportionate amount of success coming during its early days. Attendance has been low for several years, and the owner of the team, Herb Kohl, has been whining about his team’s financial situation for years. Unless the owners get a very favorable new CBA, Milwaukee could be on the way out. (Editor’s Note: It’s even worse if you count the Green Bay Packers)

2. Cleveland

I can't believe I stayed in Cleveland for 7 years

  • Metro Population: 2,077,240
  • Pro teams: 3
  • Total Personal Income:$227.7 Billion
  • Available Personal Income: -$71.4 billion
  • Win/Loss Record: 1540 Wins, 1790 Losses, 46.2%
  • Playoff Appearances: 18 times in 41 years, 43.9%

While the Cavaliers have been in the league for about as long as the Bucks, they have not had nearly the same level of success. And because Cleveland is a bigger city than Milwaukee, this would be okay, except for the fact that Cleveland has two additional pro teams. As it stands, Cleveland is the second most overextended sports market in North America. The long Rust Belt decline and Mr. Comic Sans certainly don’t help either. LeBron James had the right idea: it’s time for the NBA to get out of Cleveland.

1. Denver

Seeya!

  • Metro Population: 2,543,482
  • Pro teams: 5
  • Total Personal Income:$293.7 Billion
  • Available Personal Income: -$87.4 billion
  • Win/Loss Record: 1369 Wins, 1469 Losses, 48.2% (NBA)
  • Playoff Appearances: 22 times in 35 years, 62.9% (NBA)

Like Minneapolis, Denver is actually a large market. However, Denver is the most overextended sports market in North America. There are five pro teams there! There is not enough money in the Denver area to support so many teams. In order for there to be enough money to go around, the city would have to lose either the Rockies or two of the Broncos, Nuggets, and Avalanche. MLB teams do not move very often and the NFL is very popular, so the best bet would be that the Nuggets and Avalanche could be on the way out in the near future. Which is a shame, because the Nuggets — as well as the Avalanche, but no one cares about hockey (says the Canadian) –have had a lot of success in Denver. As long as the team is doing well — as it has done recently — it has a chance of sticking around, but whenever it hits a sustained down period…be prepared Nuggets fans, be prepared.

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Explanation:
  • “Metro Population”: the population of the Metropolitan Statistical Area.
  • “Pro teams”: the number of NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and MLS teams in a city.
  • “Total personal income(TPI)”: the sum of all money earned by all residents of an area in a given year. Using team revenue data and average ticket prices one can calculate amount of TPI needed to adequately support a team in each north american professional sports league.
  • “Available personal income(API)”: simply TPI less the cost it takes to support the city’s pro teams. Minimum income bases were estimated (see linked article) to be $85.4 billion for MLB, $37.6 billion for the NHL, $36.7 billion for the NFL, $34.2 billion for the NBA, and $15.4 billion for MLS. If API is positive, it means that you are good to go for a franchise. If API is negative, then you really need to figure out where you are going to move your team. Only teams in the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and MLS are counted for this calculation.
  • “Win/Loss Record”: win-loss record, which includes winning percentage
  • “Playoff Appearances”: the number playoff appearances divided by the number of years in the NBA

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- Devin

(Quick editor’s Note: I liked this so much, I decided to add a table. Enjoy! -Arturo)


The NBA’s Top Earners

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Do not play poker with these two.

The NBA owners’ books are sadly closed to us. A great thing about the players is that their salary numbers are easily accesible. In fact, we have continuous salary data back to 1991 thanks to Patricia Bender and Basketball-Reference. I thought it would be fun to look over some of the top earners in the NBA adjusted for inflation since the 1991 season.  This list only includes players who entered the league on or after the 1990-91 season.

Player Total Salary*  Exp Rookie Year  Per Year
Shaquille O’Neal $354,136,836 19 1993 $18,638,781
Kevin Garnett** $315,370,217 16 1996 $19,710,639
Kobe Bryant** $220,661,776 15 1997 $14,710,785
Tim Duncan** $206,844,796 14 1998 $14,774,628
Jason Kidd** $203,305,233 17 1995 $11,959,131
Chris Webber $198,108,767 15 1994 $13,207,251
Ray Allen** $192,468,929 15 1997 $12,831,262
Tracy McGrady** $183,090,958 14 1998 $13,077,926
Allen Iverson $180,229,709 14 1997 $12,873,551
Rasheed Wallace $179,526,599 15 1996 $11,968,440
Jermaine O’Neal** $178,564,193 15 1997 $11,904,280
Juwan Howard** $172,779,067 17 1995 $10,163,475
Dirk Nowitzki** $155,751,068 13 1999 $11,980,851
Stephon Marbury $153,966,706 13 1997 $11,843,593
Anfernee Hardaway $152,739,135 14 1994 $10,909,938
Paul Pierce** $151,584,132 13 1999 $11,660,318
Dikembe Mutombo $150,861,243 18 1992 $8,381,180
Vince Carter** $148,780,265 13 1999 $11,444,636
Grant Hill** $147,629,190 16 1995 $9,226,824
Alonzo Mourning $145,326,228 15 1993 $9,688,415
Elton Brand** $139,545,457 12 2000 $11,628,788
Antawn Jamison** $139,404,543 13 1999 $10,723,426
Gary Payton $138,324,105 17 1991 $8,136,712
Baron Davis** $130,190,281 12 2000 $10,849,190
Rashard Lewis** $128,652,870 13 1999 $9,896,375
Note 1: All salaries adjusted for inflation and in 2011 value
Note 2: ** denotes active player

Shaq is likely to remain the most highly paid NBA player of all time unless the salary rules change. It’s a bit sad to see Kobe so high on the list, but luckily it’s unlikely he’ll overtake Garnett or Shaq — even with the insane amount of money he’s still due.

This list should illustrate several things though. First of all, some of the greatest players have been severely underpaid. Shaq, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, and Kidd have all been key members of teams that have been to multiple finals. Despite their big paydays, it’s doubtful they’ve been paid what they were worth to their respective franchises.

Secondly, GMs have massively overpaid some players (Allen Iverson, Rashard Lewis, Jermaine O’Neal and Juwan Howard). This has a lot to do with the rule changes that were made in 1999 that severely limited rookie contracts and enforced player caps based on seniority. As an older player, Rashard Lewis gets more per year than Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard (the recipients of the last 3 MVPs and Defensive Player of the Year Awards). However, we should note that the people that paid the ultimate cost were not the owners, they were the players who did not make this list.

-Dre and Devin

Is San Antonio Hoarding International Players?

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We are just the beginning. . . more will follow.

With the prospect of a shortened/non-existent NBA season looming, let’s continue our over-analysis of Eurobasket 2011! This time I’ll be looking at all the players who participated in the Eurobasket and who have ties to the NBA.

There are several European players who play in the NBA (Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko, Tony Parker, etc), and many more whose rights are held by NBA teams. In the following table, I have compiled statistics for every player in the Eurobasket who meets one of three conditions:

  • they are currently on an NBA roster
  • they have played an NBA game
  • their rights are held by an NBA team

Now, before we continue with the list, a little disclaimer: it is very hard for me to determine whether or not teams are still holding on to the rights of the players they have drafted. It is possible that I have made some mistakes. If anyone sees any mistakes and can point me to a source with a correction, I’d appreciate it.

On with the table! The following table is ordered by estimated wins:

There are plenty of interesting numbers to pick out – for example, the performance of certain NBA players. Those numbers are there for you to examine, but I’d actually like to analyze the players who have not played any NBA games. If we look at the totals for each NBA team, here’s what it looks like:

Team

# of Players

Estimated Wins

San Antonio

5

2.53

Utah

2

2.45

Dallas

1

1.31

Minnesota

2

1.26

Washington

1

1.21

Cleveland

1

1.04

Toronto

1

0.77

New Jersey

1

0.75

Atlanta

1

0.11

OKC

1

-0.07

Indiana

1

-0.07

Portland

2

-0.13

Philadelphia

2

-0.21

Houston

1

-0.39

San Antonio has a reputation for drafting and stashing international talent, and the numbers confirm this. Many of the players on other teams were drafted in this year’s draft, but San Antonio has players going back to the 2001 draft (if anyone is wondering, Robertas Javtokas, captain of the Lithuanian team, was selected with the 55th pick that year). Of these 22 players, the standouts include:

  • Viktor Sanikidze, Georgia
  • Ante Tomic, Croatia
  • Nick Calathes, Greece
  • Emir Preldzic, Turkey

Although we must be aware of the problems of small sample sizes, each of these four players seem like they would be good NBA players. Will these players ever make it to the NBA? Only time will tell.

- Devin

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 Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

Wages of Wins Podcast: Fantasy 3 on 3

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Imagine this in a draft.

Click here to listen to this week’s Wages of Wins Podcast!
Wages of Wins Podcast – 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft Winners and Losers

On the Miami Heat Podcast Heat Freak’s Alfredo Arteaga(@UptownReport) had a fantastic idea. What if during the lockout some of the leagues top players got together and ran an ultimate 3 on 3 tournament? With that several members of the Wages of Wins Network got together and held a fantasy draft for such a torunament. Unless the top talent in the NBA suddenly decides to fufill our wishes though all we can do is speculate on who would win. To decide our winners though we decided to have two ‘impartial judges’ that didn’t participate pick grade each team and one player that did participate in the draft to talk about it:

Here’s a brief reminder of our other contestants:

So in order here are the teams and contestants and how we graded them. Each judge had one A, two Bs and three Cs to hand out.

Devin Dignam – Steve Nash, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Kevin Garnett

  • Mosi (B) (with some reservations) This team is limited on outside shooting except for Steve Nash. Nash also takes both the role of shooter and passer, which hurts this team.
  • Dre (B) Good ball handler in Nash, great wing in Odom and best available bigs in Gasol and Garnett. It’s a strong team it’s just not the best team. (Devin agreed with this)
  • Devin’s thoughts – Would give himself a B just because he isn’t the best pick for an A.

Ben Gulker – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Arron Afflalo and Kobe Bryant

  • Mosi (C) Arron Afflalo is the weak link on this team. Paul and Griffin were exciting but it just didn’t pan out.
  • Dre  (C+) This team was close with Paul and Griffin but Afflalo barely puts this team in the C range. That said it’s my favorite of the Cs.
  • Devin’s thoughts – Ben needed another forward like player with his third pick.

Arturo Galletti – Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Paul Pierce and Jason Kidd

  • Mosi (A) You’ve got to have a great shooter, a big and a passer. Arturo has that in spades.
  • Dre  (A) Top Center in the league and top Shooting Guard in the league and top five wing in the league. Jason Kidd doesn’t even need to suit up.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – Getting Howard pretty much sealed this for Arturo. It’s not very close.

Patrick Minton – Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Mike Dunleavy and Landry Fields

  • Mosi (C) This is the worst team in the league. Fields and Dunleavy have no business playing.
  • Dre  (C) This team is the most fascinating to me. I don’t think they’re favorites but they have a great shot to surprise.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – I think this team is weak in areas. If they’re hot they could upset some teams but they’re not good enough to compete.

James Brocato – LeBron James, Ray Allen, Zach Randolph and Andrei Kirilenko

  • Mosi (B) This team has all of  the components. No one is stopping LeBron and it comes down to this team and Arturo’s.
  • Dre – (B) Might take Garnett over Randolph. That said easily the second best team in this league.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – Zach Randolph is the weak link on this team. Also Andrei Kirilenko played well in Eurobasket 2011.

Greg Steele – Kevin Love, Manu Ginobili, Josh Smith and Stephen Curry

  • Mosi – (C) Confused by Josh Smith and Manu Ginobili, especially given Greg’s excellent fantasy skills. This team will have to double team on defense, which is a recipe for disaster.
  • Dre – (C) Kevin Love is great. Ginobili is not as strong in a league without free throws.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – Josh Smith was to try and help Love on defense. That said Love was probably picked too high.

Listen for more banter and even more analysis about how Arturo’s team could potentially be stopped. Sorry for any participants we may have offended. Of course the only thing more fun that making fantasy teams is arguing about which teams are the best.

-Dre

Wages of Wins Podcast: Devin Dignam about Eurobasket 2011 and the Draft

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The Podcast

You can find the show here Wages of Wins Podcast – Devin Dignam International Talk

The Crew

Devin Dignam from NBeh? (Toronto Raptors blog)

Dre Alvarez (@NerdNumbers)

Show Notes

  • More international visitors in large part thanks to Devin’s recent Eurobasket 2011 posts including
  • Devin agrees with my point from the Valley of the Suns Podcast – Advanced Stats in the NBA may be cracked and improving Draft and International scouting is the next big leap.
  • Devin points out a lot of international ball is tournaments, which falls victim to small sample size (which almost altered this article)
  • Devin is happy with the Raptors international pick Jonas Valanciunas
  • The one and done rule has stopped team from taking hot high school prospects with the top 3 picks and Andrea Bargnani may have stopped teams from taking top international picks with the top 3 picks.
  • Devin throws a low blow to a Nuggets fan by bringing up Nikoloz Tskitishvili
  • Dre points out that despite the lack of international picks in the top 3 has slowed but they are still prominent in the lottery.
  • Dre and Devin agree Ricky Rubio will not likely help out the Timberwolves.
  • In spite of our bashing Andrea Bargnani and Ricky Rubio both played well in Eurobasket 2011
  • Dre says you shouldn’t overreact to tournament/playoff performance. In contrast Mosi Platt’s brother thinks Pau Gasol should be traded from the Lakers for a bad series this year.
  • When given the choice between a top NCAA pick or a good looking “mystery box” international pick Devin says he’ll stick with the NCAA player until around pick 20.
  • Interestingly enough San Antonio owns the rights to many players that played well in Eurobasket 2011
  • Did Utah have a dislike of potentially talented international players?
  • Devin points out that in the Fiba U19 and Eurobasket that awards were given using the Yay Points! method.
P.S. I know some of the RSS feed etc. is not being updated. I’m looking at changing how I produce the podcasts. I’m looking at some various other software. If anyone has good recommendations for the best way to produce a podcast on the Mac please let me know.