Category Archives: Devin

Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Draft Round 4

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.

Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. In case you missed it you can find the first two rounds here: Round 1 and Round 2. With that let’s get on to the next round!

Round 4

1) With the 19th pick Devin selects Kevin Garnett

My second pick is Kevin Garnett (that sound you just heard? Arturo). Like Odom, Garnett is very flexible. defensively, he can cover every position. Offensively, Garnett can even handle the ball if he has to; I distinctly remember him bringing the ball up the court on a regular basis when he played in Minnesota. And while Garnett can’t shoot the three, he certainly has some range (check out his Hoopdata splits).

2) With the 20th pick Ben selects Kobe Bryant

Because I am devaluing Wins Produced numbers because I believe 3-on-3 basketball is fundamentally different from NBA basketball, I’m going to pick a player that WP proponents typically run away from: Kobe Bryant. As wildly overrated as Kobe is, he’s still among the most potent offensive options on the perimeter. And in a structure where help defense will be mostly non-existent, I’ll take Kobe as my fourth many any day.

3) With the 21st pick Arturo selects Jason Kidd

You know that old guy in your pickup court who knows every dirty trick in the book, fouls you on every play yet never gets called for anything, gets all the cheap rebounds and makes you pay for leaving him open from long range? Jason Kidd is that guy.

4) With the 22nd pick Patrick selects Landry Fields

I’ll take Landry Fields.  More rebounding, height, solid defense, and he’s my worst 3pt shot at .390 lol. He’ll be a great sub for Dunleavey when I need more toughness.

5) With the 23rd pick James selects Andrei Kirilenko

With my final pick, I’m going to go with Andrei Kirilenko. He’s a quick, long, aggressive defender, able to defend virtually every position. He is also a very good three point shooter. With Kirilenko, I can go with a number of different lineups, and I believe I have the personnel to match up with just about any team and create nightmare matchups for opposing defenses.

6) With the 24th pick Greg selects Stephen Curry

Okey dokey, here goes he final pick of the draft: Steph Curry. In a
draft where Ray Allen went in the top 12, it seems that Curry should
be in the top 24; he can do at least everything Ray can do, and pass a
bit better besides. Curry gives me the flexibility to shift between a
3-pt (2-pt) lineup of Curry, Ginobili, Love and a slashing lineup of
Ginobili, Smith, Love. To my mind, Curry is about the best long-range
shooter around, though he does give me another mediocre defender. I
think in a 3-on-3 league, the 2-pt. lineup would difficult to stop
with Curry and Love running the pick-n-pop or pick-n-roll, but would
need good defense from Manu and Josh Smith in order to supplement
Curry and Love.

We had a ton of fun with this and we may have a few more posts coming on the subject! Any surprises or bets on which team wins?

-Dre

The “Top Performers” of Eurobasket 2011

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Something that FIBA Europe did for each game during the Eurobasket was to assign a “top performer” from each team. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at these players and see if I could spot any trends in how they were determined.

Take a look at the following graph:

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Almost three quarters of the players who were designated as “top performers” by FIBA Europe led their team in Win Score, whereas only about two thirds led their team in points scored, and even fewer “top performers” led their team in Estimated Wins Produced. For interest’s sake, I also took a quick look at rebounding to get a better feel for the other categories. As you can see, rebounding is not nearly as important in determining the “top performer” as the other three statistics.

What does it mean? It means that people are starting to realize that there’s more to productivity than just scoring. If FIBA Europe valued scoring more than overall productivity, “top performers” would have led their team in points more often than in Win Score. But the opposite is the case.

We can also look at the data another way:

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Here we see the more complicated breakdown. One third of all “top performers”  led their team in Win Score, Estimated Wins, and points. About one quarter of “top performers” led their team in Win Score and Estimated Wins, but not points. Fourteen percent of “top performers” led their teams in points, but not Win Score or Estimated Wins. Thirteen percent led their teams in Win Score and points; six percent led their team in none of the three categories, as well as both Estimated Wins and points; four percent led their teams in only Win Score; and not a single “top performer” led his team solely in Estimated Wins.

Why is Win Score a better indicator of a “top performer” than Estimated Wins? To make a long story short: Win Score is a more obvious outcome than Estimated Wins. Estimated Wins are calculated on a game-by-game basis, using the average Position Adjusted Win Score per minute (PAWSmin). In some cases, this means that players with high Win Scores see their Estimated Wins suffer, because their counterpart opponents also played well. Similarly, in some cases players with lower Win Scores end up with higher Estimated Wins because their counterpart opponents played poorly. This makes total sense, by the way – in a game where every point guard is going nuts, the most productive point guard really has to outdo everyone to make a difference. In the same vein, in a game where every point guard is playing poorly, it doesn’t take much to be considered a very productive point guard.

So again we must ask the question: why, if FIBA Europe is generally more impressed by Win Score over points, did they award Juan Carlos Navarro the MVP over Pau Gasol? For starters, FIBA isn’t perfect. For example, about six percent of the “top performers” didn’t lead their teams in Win Score, Estimated Wins, or points. Second of all, the player with the highest Win Score still failed to be awarded the “top performer” honour one out of every four times.

Even still…I’m not going to let this one go: Pau Gasol was robbed.

- Devin

Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft Round 3!

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.
Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. In case you missed it you can find the first two rounds here: Round 1 and Round 2. With that let’s get on to the next round!

Round 3

1) With the 13th pick Greg selects Josh Smith


Josh Smith is a defensive pick. Since I selected Kevin Love as my big man, I’m slotting Josh Smith as a swing man in the expectation that his backside help defense and shot-blocking ability will come up huge in a half-court game, where there is less space to cover. He is in the .250-.300 WP48 range, which is  about as good as you can get on a non-C at this point.

2) With the 14th pick James selects Zach Randolph

With Allen as a dominate outside scorer and James as a dominate all-around scorer, I need a clean-up guy who can do work inside. Accordingly, I’m going with Zach Randolph. Randolph is a beast inside, and leads the entire NBA in offensive rebound percentage. In the rare event that Allen misses a 3 or James misses a layup, there is no one better to clean up the mess and give the team more opportunities than Randolph. In addition, Randolph is a very physical player. This physicality will benefit him in a league where players call their own fouls.

3) With the 15th pick Patrick selects Mike Dunleavy

Ok, you’ve all been waiting for a surprise pick and here it is….I take Mike Dunleavey. I think bigs are overrated in this format unless they can shoot 3s (err 2s). I chose he gives me rebounding and size — I have no center but all three guys are 6’9+ so good luck denying me 3s if you gave a traditional point guard on your roster. My strategy vs dominant bigs is just to foul. Remember you’ve got to shoot 80% from 2ptfgs to match my 3s (I don’t plan to shoot 2s unless they are dunks or open layups) unless you have similar outside prowess. And nobody in the NBA is going to shoot 80% near the basket when they’re calling their own fouls, especially if we aren’t going to shoot FTs or foul out players.

4) With the 16th pick Arturo selects Paul Pierce

Oh Patrick, Patrick, Patrick. Dunleavy really? For me, I need shooting and a swing defender that can cover Lebron. Do I go for the 3 pointers or do I take the best player available? It’s not like we have some handy tables available to determine that.
Oh wait we do! Funny, I can do both. My pick is reigning three point champ and the ninth best player according to my rankings: Paul Pierce. I got my wish.

5) With the 17th pick Ben selects Arron Afflalo

I’m taking a risk on a sleeper with my last pick, and it’s either gutsy or stupid. Let me know in the comments.

My rationale: I’m not looking for the best available player by WP. WP isn’t as applicable in a 3-on-3 setting, especially when 3′s are 2′s and 2′s are 1′s. Instead, I’m looking for someone who is a highly skilled “two-point” shooter (and not bad everywhere else).

My primary offense is the Paul/Griffin pick-and-roll. If I round this out with a lights out shooter, the defense has to pick its poison every time down the floor: either help to protect the rim or defend the two-point line. In other words, I’m seeking to eliminate help defense or make the defense pay dearly for helping.

My first and second choices here were Allen and Dunleavy. Both excellent shooters, both highly rated by WP. With them off the board, I’m selecting Arron Afflalo. He’s one of the best three-point shooters available, he’s a well-rounded player overall, and he’s a solid perimeter defender.

6) With the 18th pick Devin selects Lamar Odom

Wow! After a couple of rather…interesting…choices, I get to choose two players…and I have three wonderful players to choose from! I was hoping to get Paul Pierce here, but Arturo was on to me.

So, to review: I have a Big (Gasol) and a Small (Nash). With my next two picks, I am going to pick some players who can play big and small. I also am wary of letting Arturo getting another one of the players he likes (hint hint).

My first pick is Lamar Odom. Odom can handle the ball, play inside or outside (check out his 3pt% from last season), can pass, and can rebound. He can match-up with centres, power forwards, and small forwards. His main weakness – free throw shooting – does not apply in 3-on-3.

I had thought about wrapping this up today but with so much great commentary and debate we have another day to go! Hope you’re enjoying it.

-Dre

The Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft Round 2

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.
Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. In case you missed it Round 1 can be found here. With that let’s go down round 2.

Round 2

1) With the 7th pick Devin selects Steve Nash

Now I have a dilemma. Who is going to be my guard? As much as I like Dwayne Wade, I have to go with Steve Nash. Nash is the best passer, best shooter from all over the court, and also has a high IQ. On defense I might have a little bit of a problem, but there’s not much difference between Nash’s defense and Paul’s defense (and Nash is better than Paul at shooting). I pass on Wade because he can’t shoot from long range.

2) With the 8th pick Ben Selects Blake Griffin

I’m going with who I think is the best big man available in a 3-on-3 setting. While he’s not quite as productive defensively as some of the other obvious choices, interior and help defense won’t be quite as important in a game of 3-on-3, and he’s definitely the most explosive offensively. Paired with Chris Paul in the pick and roll, I don’t think anyone will be able to stop Blake Griffin.

3) With the 9th pick Arturo selects Dwyane Wade


Seriously? I thought I was going to have to struggle here. It becomes really academic for me then. With the ninth pick I take the best guard on the board. Dwyane Wade come on down. Two picks, two best players at their position.

4) With the 10th pick Patrick selects Dirk Nowitzki:

Wow.  I’ve been holding my breath here.  I take Dirk Nowitzki with my pick.  I get rebounding and a fantastic 3 shooter.  Furthermore, in this format players will try to guard the 3 heavily but both my players are very tall and very quick shooters that are very tough to guard and probably nearly impossible for the point guards to deny the 3.  Pretty thrilled with this pick.

5) With the 11th pick James selects Ray Allen

I have struggled a lot with this pick, but I’m going with Ray Allen. With LeBron there to penetrate and handle the ball, and with 3-pointers being worth much more than usual, the importance of a great shooter is exacerbated a great deal. Allen is arguably the best 3 shooter in the world. Additionally, he takes care of the ball and doesn’t force shots. At least, not as much as other unnamed 2-guards. Allen is also an underrated athlete, and can actually penetrate and defend fairly well. Plus he has a great basketball IQ. But he’s on my team for one primary reason: to drill 3s.
err..to drill 2s…

6) With the 12th pick Greg selects Manu Ginobili

In my experience with 3-on-3 ball, team chemistry and complimentary skill sets are about as important as skill level (in 5-on-5 skill more often trumps). Ginobili is primarily an offensive pick, since he is probably the best at attacking the basket of any guard remaining. Though there might be better players available (shouldn’t someone be taking Kobe by now?), Ginobili is a good fit.

We’ll wrap up tomorrow with the final two picks for each contestant. Feel free to let us know your thoughts on our picks!

-Dre

The Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.
Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. With that let’s run down the first round of picks.

Round 1

1) With the first pick Greg selects Kevin Love:

The differences between the 5-on-5 game and the 3-on-3 game
necessitate certain adjustments in player evaluation. Players whose
primary strength is attacking the basket are slightly less valuable in
ahalf-court game with no referees. Players with good long-range
jumpshots, good passing skills, and high basketball IQ are somewhat
more important in the 3-man game. K-Love gets checkmarks in each of
the above three areas, and is the best rebounder available in 3-on-3,
5-on-5, or any other permutation. The only downside to the pick is
that it leaves my team with relatively weak interior defense. -Greg

2) With the 2nd pick James selects LeBron James:

Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that LeBron is the best all-around player in the NBA. He can score (yes, he’s even a decent 3 shooter), rebound, pass, and defend with the best of them. He’s nearly impossible to guard, which makes him super valuable to a 3v3 team. He can get the basket practically at will, and if he doesn’t like his chances at the shot, he can find his teammate on the wing over the open 3 when the defenders collapse on him. If he decides not to drive, and to shoot the 3, I still like his chances. His ability to defend the wing and the post would also prove to be very valuable in a 3 on 3 game. -James

3) With the 3rd pick Patrick selects Kevin Durant:

When playing by 2s and 3s, Wade or Howard would clearly be the best choice her, but Durant is a beast in a game by 1s and 2s because he shoots so well from 3 and so efficiently when he drives.  I’m actually thrilled with this pick as I believe he’s the #1 pick in this format. -Patrick

4) With the 4th pick Arturo selects Dwight Howard:

Rough choice here for me and I’m torn. Best big or best small? I believe someone said something about a short supply of tall people. My pick is Dwight Howard. The defense, interior presence on offense, defense and the boards we all know about but I think the fact that it’s street ball pushes it over the top for me. Lots of no calls on fouls and lots of ridiculous blocks that would have been goaltends in an NBA game. I could see some two pointers getting blocked. Totally happy with this pick. -Arturo

5) With the 5th pick Ben selects Chris Paul

He’s a fantastic ball handler, excellent at breaking down defenses off the dribble, fantastic distributor, and pesky defender. With little-to-no help defense in a 3-on-3 setting, Chris Paul will have a field day. -Ben

6) With the 6th pick Devin selects Pau Gasol

I’m going to start with my big man – Pau Gasol. Other than Howard, he’s the best all-round big for this format. He can shoot from almost everywhere (don’t believe me? Check out his Eurobasket stats – 7/11 threes in 10 games), can rebound, pass, defend reasonably well. I have him ahead of Love because of his defense and basketball IQ. -Devin

Any surprise omissions? Also to clarify the rules this is a 3 on 3 tournament played half court, counted by 1 and 2 and the players honorably calling their own fouls.

-Dre