Evaluating Talent in the NFL and NBA is Different

Jeremy Lin has certainly captured people’s attention.  And this attention has led people to wonder about how talent is evaluated in professional sports.  Recently, both Stephen Dubner in the Freakonomics forum and Jonah Lehrer at Wired Science took essentially the same approach. Each writer began talking about Lin. But then they moved on to a discussion of talent evaluation in the NFL.

When I saw each story I felt inspired to write something.  Unfortunately, I might have been too inspired.  Across the past week or so I offered two posts in the Freakonomics forum.

Talent Evaluation is Different in the NFL and NBA

Why Did the NBA Miss On Jeremy Lin?

Each post is a bit long.  But hopefully each is worth your time.  And if you invest that time, hopefully you will see – as is argued in Stumbling on Wins – that talent evaluation in the NFL and NBA is not quite the same.

- DJ

Amazing Stuff I have Read (and would like you to read)

Currently I am involved with an assortment of projects.  So my ability to contribute in this forum (or for any other blog I am involved with) is limited.  Although I am not writing much on-line (I am writing quite a bit elsewhere), I am still reading stuff.  And here is some of the stuff I have read recently (in case you are interested…)

Let’s start with something from Jonathan Weiler.  At the Huffington Post, Jonathan writes about people who think Kobe Bryant and Magic Johnson are somehow comparable.  The entire post is well worth reading.  But I want to highlight two particular points.  The first is about Bill James:

In his last Baseball abstract, Bill James, the pioneering baseball statistician and godfather of the Sabermetric revolution had a righteous rant about the fact that Andre Dawson was named the NL MVP in 1987. James opined about Dawson’s selection “there are occasions in your professional life that make you think you’re not making any progress. The election of Andre Dawson as the National League’s MVP is one of mine.” James noted that people criticized him all the time for an over-reliance on statistics at the expense of “intangibles” and the “little things.” James pointed out, however, that Dawson’s selection had nothing to do with intangibles or the little things (particularly since the Cubs finished in last place in 1987) — it had to do with the fact that the “Hawk” hit 49 homers and drove in 137 runs and that MVP voters overwhelmingly voted for players with high RBI totals. In other words, whether they admitted it or not, their votes were based on statistics — and really, one statistic. And James argued, if we’re going to rely on stats to evaluate players, we should understand what it is we’re relying upon. James insisted that if you took all of Dawson’s measurable contributions into account as well as the context in which he was playing — Wrigley Field — you’d know that he wasn’t one of the thirty best players in the National League in 1987.

And then a few paragraphs later Jonathan says the following:

Listen to any coach talk about winning basketball. What will they talk about? Intensity and heart and all that good stuff, of course. And again according to their peers, Magic and Kobe were each off the charts in those terms. What next will coaches say? Good shot selection. Rebounding. Being unselfish and moving the ball. And we have good data for evaluating those things — rebounding, assists-to-turnovers, shooting percentage. And on those fronts, the two players are not comparable.

Again, the entire column is well worth reading.  Especially for people who really think Kobe ranks somewhere near Magic.

Of course, Jonathan’s work is not the only thing I have read lately.

The coverage of Jeremy Lin continues.  Certainly we have spent a fair amount of time discussing Mr. Lin in this forum.  And here are three more stories worth noting:

First, the amazing Ty Willihnganz (more on him in a moment) makes an important observation.  One reason Lin looks so great is that the other options for the Knicks at point guard are just awful.

Alan Reifman –who has a new book called “Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports’ Greatest Streaks” (which I hope to discuss in more detail soon) – has a blog that focuses on the subject of “hot hands”.   And currently he has a short post noting that Lin’s recent ability to hit shots is somewhat unusual.   Of course, the turnovers from Lin… (that’s another story for another day).

And finally on the subject of Lin, David Tufte – my colleague at Southern Utah University (who also has a blog) – has a short post on Lin’s high school coach: What a riot: Jeremy Lin’s high school coach bought the rights to the URL linsanity.com a couple of years ago, because he thought it a good investment for when Lin made it big in the NBA.

Beyond the subject of Jeremy Lin, let me note again the amazing work of Ty Willihnganz at the Courtside Analyst.  This is a website that I think definitely doesn’t get enough attention.  And yet, every few days Ty puts up some fairly amazing analysis.  Here is some of his recent work:

Again, Ty’s work is always interesting.   So if you are looking for something to read, check out the Courtside Analyst.  Of course, don’t stop reading all the wonderful stuff in this forum.

- DJ

I’ve seen these finals before! A difference between the NBA and NFL

The Superbowl has been around since the 1967. This Sunday will actually be somewhat unique. This Superbowl will be only the 3rd time that two teams with returning starters will have a repeat match up in the Superbowl. It will also mark only the sixth time that two franchises that have met in the finals before meet again. Here’s a breakdown:

Superbowl rematches

  • 1979: Rematch of 1976 Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Pittsburgh won both)
  • 1994: Rematch of 1993 Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys (Dallas won both)
  • 2012: Rematch of 2008 New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (Not looking good for New England)

NFL Honorable mentions

  • 1996: Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers “rematch” of 1979 (Pittsburgh won)
  • 1983: Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins “rematch” of 1973 (Split)
  • 1989: Cincinnati Bengals and San Fransisco 49ers “rematch” of 1982 (San Fransisco won both)

NBA Rematches

  • 1969: Rematch of 1968 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics (Boston won both)
  • 1972: Rematch of 1970 Los Angeles Lakers vs. New York Knicks (Split)
  • 1973: Rematch of 1972 Los Angeles Lakers vs. New York Knicks (New York won)
  • 1979: Rematch of 1978 Seattle Supersonics vs. Washington Bullets (Split)
  • 1982: Rematch of 1980 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Los Angeles won both)
  • 1983: Rematch of 1982 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Philadelphia 76ers (76ers won)
  • 1985: Rematch of 1984 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics (Split)
  • 1987: Rematch of 1985 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics (Lakers won)
  • 1998: Rematch of 1997 Chicago Bulls vs. Utah Jazz (Chicago won both)
  • 2010: Rematch of 2008 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics (Split)
  • 2011: Rematch of 2006 Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat (split)

NBA Honorable mentions

  • 1986: Rematch of 1981 Houston Rockets vs. Boston Celtics (Boston won both)
  • 2008: Rematch of 1987 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics (Boston won)

Summing Up

In 46 years of the Superbowl, we’ve only had three repeat match ups, for a total of six Superbowls (13%). Even for franchises looking to develop Superbowl rivalries, that’s only happened six times for a total of eleven times (24%). Compare this to the NBA, where there have been 19 finals that were “repeats” (41%) and 22 finals with the same franchises battling it out (48%). That’s right! At the current rate, the NBA is pretty much a coin flip as to whether the finals will have a repeat showing of a previous season.

In the NBA, the short supply of tall people means the sport is wildly unbalanced. Once a team gets several good players it will likely stay good for many years. If two such teams happen to do that at the same time, then we’ll have the makings of a rivalry. Add the fact that playoff length is longer and fans shouldn’t be too surprised by who shows up in the finals.

The NFL is a different story. Players have shorter careers. Also with more players on the field, it’s hard for just one player to make as much of a difference. Finally, with single elimination playoffs, anything can happen (try telling that to Packers fans this season!). Of course, both the NBA and NFL are very popular. So it’s hard to tell if it’s the bitter rivalry between teams repeatedly going to the finals or the randomness of the playoffs that bring fans back. All I can say is that I’ll be surprised if next season is a repeat Superbowl showing for the NFL, but I won’t be surprised if we see familiar faces in this years NBA finals or the next.

-Dre

 

Some Good Looking Links

Here at the Wages of Wins our analysts’ opinions are highly valued. Our resident General Manager and expert Sports Economist David Berri has been answering questions about the lockout and beauty all over the web.

How a Sports Economist Talks Smack

Dave Berri, the General Manager of the Wages of Wins Network, is a lifelong Detroit Lions fan. I myself am from Denver Colorado and as a result am a Denver Broncos fan. This Sunday our teams will meet and that of course required some amount of smack talk. I thought you all would enjoy a look at how a Professor in Sports Economics talks smack:

Here is the real contest:
Will Tim Tebow:
A) Survive the game?
B) Get knocked out of the game and watch from the sideline?
C) end up in a hospital
I think (b).  What do you think?
We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to find out!
-Dre