Category Archives: Football Stories

What’s the Deal with Football on TV?

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Here at the Wages of Wins we are lucky enough to have a resident Sports Economist on staff. When we have crazy questions about things like the cost of beer and its effects on ticket prices we need only e-mail Dr. David Berri to get the lowdown. This week Mosi Platt (@MIA_Heat_Index) of the Miami Heat Index was interested in the NFL and college football on TV and the good doctor was kind enough to chime in. Here are Mosi’s questions and Dave’ answers.

Why do the BCS & NFL handle TV so differently?

The BCS is every school/conference for itself, but the NFL negotiates as one entity. Why is that?

The NFL under Pete Rozelle got a law passed through Congress in the 1960s that allowed the NFL to violate anti-trust laws.  The NCAA, though, was found guilty of violating anti-trust laws in 1984 (in a case brought by Oklahoma).  Since then, conferences and schools were able to cut their own deals.

Right, but why hasn’t an NFL owner bucked the system to forge their own TV deal? Couldn’t Jerry Jones make more money with his own deal for the Cowboys?

Maybe.  But Jones might have a hard time finding anyone to play if he tried to forge his own national deal.  The NFL has immunity to anti-trust laws on this issue.  So they can stop Jones from doing this.

So, as an economist, which organization is better at maximizing its TV revenue in you’re opinion – the BCS or NFL?

The difficulty with the BCS is that they have oversupplied the market, and that has reduced the price of each game.  But I am not sure of the actual prices.  So I am not sure how the revenue numbers compare (although I am sure someone knows).

Until next time

Hope you enjoyed a brief refresher on football on television. The next time we have a question for Dave we’ll make sure to post it.

-Dre

NFL Week 3: Ray Rice, Eli Manning & Buffalo Bills Brought the Earth, Wind & Fire

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The most productive running back and quarterback were Ray Rice and Eli Manning in NFL Week 3 action, but Montario Hardesty and Fred Jackson fueled the most exciting games of the weekend.The NBA Lockout has forced me to start writing a new series of posts for the Wages of Wins Journal: Earth, Wind & Fire. I’ll highlight the most productive running backs and quarterbacks, as well as the most exciting games each week of the NFL season.The metrics for this series will be RB and QB Score for players.

QB Score = Yards – 3*Plays – 30*All turnovers

RB Score = Yards – 3*Plays – 30*Fumbles Lost

Advanced NFL Stats’ Excitement Index and NFL.com’s fan ratings will be used to identify the most exciting games.

Let’s get started…

Earth: Best NFL RBs in Week 3

Rice edged LaDainian Tomlinson by one point for the top RB Score in Week 3 with 164 total yards on 14 plays with no fumbles against the St. Louis Rams. After three weeks, the Rams defense has allowed opponents to put up the highest rushing score in the NFL (rushing score is simply RB Score without receptions).

This spreadsheet ranks all running backs in Week 3 by RB Score. The top five backs are listed below.

  1. Ray Rice (BAL): 122 RB Score, 8.7 per Play
  2. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ): 121 RB Score, 11.0 per Play
  3. James Casey (HOU): 119 RB Score, 19.8 per Play
  4. Darren McFadden (OAK): 112 RB Score, 5.1 per Play
  5. Fred Jackson (BUF): 110 RB Score, 6.5 per Play

Jackson’s performance in a comeback win over the New England Patriots only ranked fifth in Week 3, but for the season he’s been the most productive running back in the league. Jackson edged out Rice by nine yards for the top spot.

This spreadsheet ranks running backs by RB Score per game this season. The top five backs are listed below.

  1. Fred Jackson (BUF): 84.3 RB Score per Game
  2. Ray Rice (BAL): 81.3 RB Score per Game
  3. Matt Forte (CHI): 78.3 RB Score per Game
  4. Darren McFadden (OAK): 77.0 RB Score per Game
  5. Ryan Mathews (SDG): 72.0 RB Score per Game

Wind: Best NFL QBs in Week 3

Eli Manning took the wind out of Lincoln Financial Field with two big touchdown passes in the first quarter to Brandon Jacobs and Victor Cruz that gave the Giants a 14-0 lead. Manning was more than twice as productive as the average quarterback in Week 3 with
273 yards and no turnovers in just 29 plays against a secondary most people expected to be one of the best in the NFL.

This spreadsheet ranks all quarterback performances from Week 3 by QB Score per Play.

  1. Eli Manning (NYG): 6.4 QB Score per Play, 186 QB Score
  2. Matt Schaub (HOU): 5.6 QB Score per Play, 229 QB Score
  3. Matthew Stafford (DET): 5.0 QB Score per Play, 261 QB Score
  4. Mark Sanchez (NYJ): 4.6 QB Score per Play, 224 QB Score
  5. Matt Hasselbeck (TEN): 4.4 QB Score per Play, 175 QB Score

Manning was the most efficient quarterback in Week 3 but Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford put up the biggest numbers. Stafford racked up 417 yards on 52 plays with no turnovers for the Lions’ to beat the Minnesota Vikings in overtime at the Metrodome. Every
other quarterback with over 50 plays in Week 3 turned the ball over.

Stafford’s performance not only guided the Lions to a 3-0 record but also placed his numbers among the elite quarterbacks in the league this season. This spreadsheet ranks all qualified quarterbacks by QB Score per Play for the season. The top five quarterbacks are listed below.

  1. Tom Brady (NWE): 5.6 QB Score per Play, 782 QB Score
  2. Aaron Rodgers (GNB): 4.9 QB Score per Play, 584 QB Score
  3. Tony Romo (DAL): 4.6 QB Score per Play, 538 QB Score
  4. Matthew Stafford (DET): 4.6 QB Score per Play, 579 QB Score
  5. Matt Schaub (HOU): 4.4 QB Score per Play, 458 QB Score

Fire: Best Players from Best Games in Week 3

Colt McCoy’s touchdown pass to Mohamed Massaquoi with 48 seconds left made the Cleveland Browns’ 17-16 win at home over the Miami Dolphins the most exciting game of the weekend, according to the Excitement Index at Advanced NFL Stats. If it wasn’t for that play, McCoy would have gone down as the goat in a loss instead of a hero in the win.

McCoy was half-man, half-terrible against the Dolphins with a QB Score per Play of 1.3 that was only half the production of an average QB on Sunday. He was badly outplayed by Dolphins QB Chad Henne, whose QB Score per Play ranked sixth in the NFL for Week 3. The tide changed for McCoy and the Browns when he completed a short pass to RB Montario Hardesty on fourth down that went for a 10-yard gain.

Before that play, the Dolphins’ probability of winning the game was at 99 percent. Hardesty’s fourth down conversion dropped it to 64 percent. Hardesty kept the Browns in the game with 86 yards on 17 touches and an above average RB Score per Play.

The Browns defense also kept them in the game by holding the Dolphins rushers to the seventh-worst production of any running back committee in the league on Sunday. Rookie RB Daniel Thomas was slightly below average with 122 yards on 26 touches in Cleveland after a solid performance in Week 2, but Reggie Bush was the real problem.

Bush only gained 36 yards on 12 touches and put the ball on the ground for the Browns to recover. He ranked 91st out of 93 running backs in Week 3.

Fans at NFL.com rated the Buffalo Bills 21-point comeback win over the New England Patriots as the best of the weekend. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two less picks than Tom Brady to post a more efficient QB Score per Play.

The Bills defense gave Fitzpatrick the edge over Brady on Sunday, but the Harvard graduate has only been slightly above average for the season with a 3.4 QB Score per Play (average QB Score/Play is 3.2). In my NFL season preview, I said the Bills would have a tough time making the playoffs even if Fitzpatrick had a big season. He’s improved this year, but not enough to carry the Bills into the playoffs
without a lot of help.

Of course, if Fred Jackson continues to be the most productive running back in the NFL and the defense continues to make opposing quarterbacks look bad, then anything can happen.

-Mosi


Mosi Platt (@MIA_Heat_Index) is the Miami Heat writer for the Wages of Wins Network. You can normally find him at the Miami Heat Index. In addition to making sure the  world knows the greatness of Dwyane Wade, Mosi also helps keep haters in line. Mosi makes his own lists of people who spread false information and he checks them twice thanks to his trusty Blackberry.

Wages of Wins Podcast: The Owners are still lying

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Ask an Economist.

Dave was nice enough to hop on for a quick podcast before starting his weekend. You can listen to the whole thing here:

Wages of Wins Podcast 09/16/2011 – The Owners Are Still Lying

Dave appreciates his new staff of writers. He still chips in to brag about his “home teams”

Size does matter! The Difference between the NFL lockout and the NBA proves an old point. The NFL union has 1700+ members many of which with shorter careers. This means they cave quickly. The NBA has fewer members but this may not keep them from caving.

The NBA Owners refuse to show us their books. Given the background, it’s hard to believe them when they say they’re losing money. If they are, it is probably their fault as they are reckless in their spending.

We kept it short as the weekend was fast approaching but we hope you enjoy it!

-Dre

Even Former Superbowl Champions May NOT Know What They’re Doing

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The New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers are both recent Superbowl champions. We might expect that their coaching staff knows what they are doing. However, when looking at a simple judgement call – going for it on fourth down – I question if even the best of the best in the NFL have a complete grasp of the game.

A fun tale from Stumbling on Wins and Scorecasting is the story of coach Kevin Kelly. He is a high school coach in Arkansas who hates punting or going for field goals. He blindly flies in the face of conventional wisdom. And Kelly’s team tends to win a large number of football games.

Kelly’s approach seem to follow from the research of economist David Romer.  Back in 2006 (in the Journal of Political Economy) Romer employed some fairly sophisticated math and examined when a team should go for it on 4th down.

Romer’s research indicates that much of the time, going for it is the right decision.  As the above figure indicates, if you are past midfield you should probably always go for it if you have less than four yards to go. And even if you are on your side of the field, going for it can be a good decision.

Let’s take a brief review of Thursday’s NFL opener and see how these teams did relative to what Romer uncovered.

  • Green Bay punted from their own 20 with 10 yards to go – right call
  • New Orleans punted from Green Bay’s 45 with 14 yards to go – right call
  • Green Bay punted from their own 27 with 3 yards to go – wrong call
  • New Orleans punted from their own 22 with 14 yards to go – right call
  • Green Bay punted from their own 37 with 16 yards to go – right call
  • Green Bay punted from New Orleans 37 with 4 yards to go – wrong call

How about Field Goals?

  • New Orleans kicked a field goal from Green Bay’s 12 with 4 yards to go – wrong call
  • New Orleans kicked a field goal from Green Bay’s 20 with 15 yards to go – right call

Finally how about going for it on 4th down?

  • New Orleans went for it on 4th down with 1 yard to go on Green Bay’s 7 – right call

Now if we review Thursday’s game we find 9 situations where the tough choice of going for it came up. The current champs made the right call 50% of the time. The Saints — or the former champs — fared slightly better with a 80% correct rate.  And that means — according to Romer’s research — the Packers and Saints were incorrect at least 33% of the time.

This game was expected to be a match up of two of “best” teams in the NFL. Fantasy fans were happy with the performance of Rogers and Brees.  From Romer’s research, though, we see even the best teams in the NFL still make mistakes. In a game decided by less than a touchdown a touchdown and a two point conversion (editor’s note: thanks Alex!) there is no doubt mistakes like these could have impacted the final score.

Of course, the truth is that the coaches of both the Saints and the Packers will come away happy. They can say their team played a great game.   And although their decisions didn’t conform to Romer’s research, it probably followed conventional wisdom.

Conventional wisdom, though, would seem to be reducing a team’s chances to win.  And that means coaches may be making decisions that most fans like, but not the decisions that maximize the probability of winning.  So  the real truth may be that the coaches appear to know exactly what they’re doing, but keeping up these appearances might be hurting their team’s chances to walk away with a victory.

-Dre

The NFL’s Best-Looking Team

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Beauty Pays?

Daniel Hamermesh’s latest book is Beauty Pays: Why Attractive People Are More Successful.  The book – as the title indicates – examines the link between attractiveness and a person’s economic success.

Hamermesh is a pioneer in this research, and it is this research that inspired a recent paper by Jennifer VanGilder, Rob Simmons, Lisle O’Neill, and myself.  Earlier this year we published a study in Economic Letters that examined how a quarterback’s facial symmetry (a common measure of attractiveness) impacts his wage.  As we have noted in the past, there was a link.  Yes, better looking quarterback – after we controlled for the impact of performance – get paid more.

In Thursday’s Wall Street Journal, Jennifer offers another take on this research.   Reed Albergotti asked Jennifer the following question:  Which NFL team is the best-looking?

Yes, while people debate which team is the “best” before the games start playing, Reed and Jennifer went in a very different direction.  And although their answers don’t really tell us much about future prospects on the field, the answers are interesting nevertheless.  Here is a sample from the article:

  • The Buffalo Bills are the best looking team  (again, not the “best” team, just the “best-looking”)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are the least attractive
  • The quarterbacks are the second-best looking

For the best looking position, check out the article.

Again, this article is certainly offers a very different look than all the other stories out there at the onset of the 2011 NFL season.  And although facial symmetry doesn’t tell us who is going to win or lose, it does tell us which players are “looking good” out there (and at least for quarterbacks, facial symmetry does impact wages).

- DJ