I pushed Arturo to get his piece in on why the Heat don’t need Bosh before the game yesterday. It was thus appropriate that the Heat fell on their home court to the Indiana Pacers. I have trouble calling a three point loss a collapse, but I thought I’d give insight into how Arturo was right that the Heat didn’t need Chris Bosh and how they could somehow lose without him playing.

Small sample size warning. This is looking at super small sample sizes in the playoffs. If you’d like more comprehensive analysis of long term data, I welcome you to peruse our archives. If you are like most basketball fans that are enjoying the playoffs though, and want quick answers then read on!

The stat we use for games is Points over Par, don’t freak out! This is the Wins Produced you know and love. Arturo has kindly converted wins to points though, so it will make more sense for a single game. Notice the Heat won by 9 and lost by 3 and that Points over Par adds up to that. Fun right?

The Heat against the Pacers on 5-13-2012 w/ Bosh

The Heat on 5-15-2012 against the Pacers w/o Bosh

Bron was still amazing

Arturo’s thesis was that Bron could move up to the four and still play amazing. This happened. True, he had a better game one than game two, but he was still an elite player in both games (in fact he was twice as good as Arturo’s cutoff for being elite)

The rest of the Heat went missing

In game one Bosh was not actually productive, so his loss wasn’t the key culprit. Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers and Dwyane Wade have been the other great players pulling the Heat in the playoffs. This was true in round one against the Knicks and was true in game one as well. However, Miller, Chalmers and Wade did not play up to their normal levels and that had to hurt in a close loss.

Coaching freaked out

The Heat’s good players had off games. There is one important follow up on that. Sure you don’t ever bench Dwyane Wade. However, when Chalmers and Miller are having bad games what do you do? Well in this case the answer was to give more minutes to Cole and Battier. Now to be fair Battier and Cole did have good games. The point is you can’t freak out when your players are having off nights. In fact, the coach of the year has one of my favorite sound bytes to that effect.

Summing up

The Heat lost because they were missing some key players. None of these was Chris Bosh. Bron was easily able to take on the role he needed to. It is possible that Bosh’s absence influenced the team chemistry of all of the other players. However, I severely doubt that. As is true with most teams if three of your top six players have an off night against a top seeded team, you may lose. The Heat still almost pulled it out. It’s tempting to believe the Heat might fall apart from here on out. Of course, anyone that thinks that hasn’t been watching them this season.

-Dre

I got into a heated twitter debate the other day. The reason behind it was the Chris Bosh injury.

Specifically it was my belief that Bosh being out and LBJ playing at the 4 makes Miami more not less likely to win. Why you ask?

To win or contend for a championship a team must:

• Win 52 or more games (or 42 this year)
• Have two star points (either >2 Stars, > Star + Superstar or > 2 Superstars) in your Playoff Top 6. A star is >2.5 Point over Par per 48 player, a Superstar is a >5.0 Point over Par per 48 player.
• Have at least one > +1 Point over Par per 48 player who plays PF or Center in your Playoff Top 6 (This is the Suns Corollary)
• A superstar puts you in the conversation if you can make it into the playoffs and surround him with talent (i.e no duds) in the top 6 (This is the Hakeem Factor).

You need a quality big to win it all and Miami seemed to be all out this year. They have the wins and the stars but the quality of the bigs in their rotation has been the fly in the ointment with this team (as it was last year).

But a funny thing happens when you take out Chris Bosh.

Moving the MVP to power Forward makes everything better. The rotation is better with Lebron at 4. We know nobody’s won with 4/5s as bad as Miami in their top 6. Lebron at the 4 changes that. Add in the possibility of Joel Anthony sneaking into the top half of the rotation and it could become even better.

Nevermind, the idea of James on the block and Wade at the top of the key is frightening. As a point of reference, Miami was +15 in 20 minutes with lineups using LeBron James at power forward.

So if I try to guess what Pat Riley is saying to Chris right now it goes something like this: “No,Chris, take your time, we don’t want you risking your future. we’ll make due. Somehow”

-Arturo

The other day the NBA announced that James Harden has won the 6th man of the year (6MOY) award. Like most NBA awards, the 6MOY is determined by a panel of sportswriters and various other media. But unlike most NBA awards (for instance: this year’s Most Improved Player), this award was given to the right player.

Take a look at the voting:

As you can see, Harden ran away with the award, winning an emphatic 98.2% of the maximum points. And he deserved it: Harden finished the season with 10.6 wins, tops among players eligible for the award and 7th best among all players in the entire NBA. He also posted the second best per-minute efficiency of any bench player playing significant minutes, behind only Manu Ginobili, who missed most of the season with injuries. So the voters got it right!

But why did the voters get it right? It’s not because Harden had the highest win totals or was the most productive on a per-minute basis. It’s because Harden was the highest-scoring bench player and played on one of the top teams in the league. It’s incidental that Harden was also the player who was the most productive.

We know this because of the votes given to other players. If voters were voting based on productivity alone, the player with the second-most votes would have been Mike Dunleavy, Kyle Korver, Manu Ginobili, Thaddeus Young, or Taj Gibson. Filtering out players who played on losing teams would remove Dunleavy from contention. But take a look at the players who actually finished second through fourth (Lou Williams, Jason Terry, and Al Harrington). None of these three players — especially Harrington, who is terribly unproductive — deserved their placement. But Williams, Terry, and Harrington all played on winning teams and managed to hit 14.0 points per game or higher, which means that the voters gravitate toward them.

This trend isn’t limited to just this season, this is something that has been occurring since the inception of the 6MOY award. Take a look at the past 12 winners:

The leading scorer off the bench has won this award eight times, and only once in the past 12 years has the award gone to a player who didn’t rank in the top three in terms of PPG. The leading win producer off the bench has won it four times; whenever the leading win producer wins the award, they’ve been either first or second in terms of bench PPG. Every player who won in the last 12 years has played on a team that finished with a top ten win-loss record; interestingly enough, the winner has never been on the team with the best record during these twelve years.

Harden’s award as sixth man of the year is well earned. Unfortunately, when we examine it and how the voters acted on other candidates, we can see not much has changed. To win this award is not about scoring efficiently or helping your team win. It’s about scoring lots of points on a team that is good but not the best. On the plus side, this arbitrary algorithm happened to pick the right player this year.

- Devin

And with a statement victory on Sunday both Los Angeles teams advance to the second round. This is the first time that both residents of the Staples Center have advanced to round two in the same year. The Clippers got an infusion of talent when a lucky trade fell in their lap. The Grizzlies were coming off a year where they shocked the world. Let’s break down this thrilling series.

The Regend continues in Los Angeles

2012 Los Angeles Clippers Playoffs Round 1 Totals

Reggie Evans is really good The best offseason acquisition for the Clippers was Chris Paul. Surprisingly though, the second best one may have been Reggie Evans. In the regular season he averaged less than 14 minutes a game. In the playoffs that was upped to 22 minutes a game. He was the second best player for the Clippers, best on a per-minute basis, and even came through in the clutch.

Chris Paul is really good His first round performance quite the same as last year’s. That said, Chris Paul was the reason the Clippers made the playoffs and their best player in the playoffs. What’s scary, is that history has shown us that Chris Paul is capable of even more. We’ll have to see if he breaks out in the second round.

Where did Griffin and Jordan go? The Clippers were a three-headed beat of Paul, Jordan, and Griffin. Yet, Griffin and Jordan both played far below their normal levels in round one. Here’s hoping it was a fluke, or first time jitters. The Clippers will need them to have any hope in round two.

Kenyon Martin and Nick Young were ok Both of these players were bad pickups. With Kenyon Martin the Clippers bet on age and injury. With Nick Young they bet on potential that had no backing from the stats. In round one Martin put up a great game seven and had an average performance. Nick Young, who is typically a negative player, managed to at least play at a “not terrible” level. Had these players kept up their regular season routine, this would have been a shorter series.

Why oh why did the Clippers pick up Caron? Last season when Caron Butler went down it was actually a good thing for the Mavericks, who had a much better Marion on the bench. The thing is Butler was once a good player, but hasn’t been close in several seasons. He was bad in the regular season and was downright terrible in round one. The Clippers have him on the books for around $8 million a season for two more years. No good comes from this.

Randolph and Gay are no Randolph and Battier

2012 Memphis Grizzlies Playoffs Round 1 Totals 

Randolph isn’t back Zach Randolph had a crazy mid-life crisis when he joined the Grizzlies and somehow became a great player. He was a big reason for their playoff success last season. The injury bug hit Randolph though, and this season he has not been the same player. Losing a top big hurts a lot.

Gay and Mayo aren’t good Both of these players hover in the average zone. The problem is the team thinks they are stars. In the playoffs unfortunately these two were the worst players on the team to suit up more than 100 minutes. Cap wise Gay hurts a lot and O.J. Mayo may be costly if they re-sign him. Here’s hoping the Grizzlies can somehow sweep both out.

Gasol and Conley are good These two were the bright spots on the team. During the regular season these two are the one-two punch for the Grizzlies and the playoffs were no different. Neither had that much support though and sadly they couldn’t hold off the Clippers.

Summing up

This first round battle was very interesting. Both teams have some good players on the top but have had some questionable management moves that have constructed the rest of the team. Sadly, the lack of Randolph was enough to tilt this to the Clippers. As a consolation prize the Grizzlies can point out that they in fact outscored the Clippers. As for the Clippers, I don’t suspect they will be able to get outscored by San Antonio and still advance.

-Dre

I don’t mind dying, I just don’t wanna go out like some punk. – Samuel L Jackon

As a Nuggets fan I’m used to first round exits. I wasn’t expecting anything more this season but I just wanted to go out with dignity. I got what I wanted. I still get to end the series upset. Of course, the things I’m upset with are the things are the things that have upset me for most of the season. Let’s review.

Harrington kills the Nuggets

Has Lawson arrived? Lawson has shown flashes of brilliance. In game 6 he played an amazing game. He followed it up with a great game that ended in a loss. This was after a season where he lead the Nuggets in Wins Produced. This could be huge for the Nuggets.

McGee and Faried are good There’s been a lot of questions about if these two can really run the Nuggets front court. Against arguably the toughest front court in the League both of these players played great. My only complaint is their lack of playing time.

Dre Miller? He’s been one of my favorite players but I was sure he was past his prime. He played amazing in the playoffs. It was probably his last stint with the Nuggets, but I’m happy he went down swinging.

Harrington and Karl killed us Harrington is a terrible player. He’s always been a terrible player. This series was no difference. He was the worst player on the Nuggets and with two losses decided by fewer than five points that’s huge. The bigger complaint is that our terrible coach in George Karl saw fit to give Harrington so many minutes. This point kills me so much.

Where was Gallo? This last part hurts. I loved the trade for Gallo and he played well for the Nuggets. He was injured this season and he just hasn’t come back. I kept hoping he’d show up this series but sadly it didn’t happen.

 Kobe, Kobe, Kobe

Bynum and Gasol are good There was a rumor if the Lakers lost that Bynum, Gasol and Mike Brown were gone. Patrick pointed out how stupid this was. These two players pretty much single handedly kept the Lakers in the series.

Steve Blake? No seriously, Steve Blake vs. Andre Miller was a major factor in this series? Am I going crazy? Apparently former Nugget guards felt obligated to show up. I’ll admit I was surprised.

Where did Sessions and Barnes go? Barnes was a top player during the regular season. Sessions finally gave the Lakers a real point guard. Both of them vanished in the playoffs. They weren’t as bad as Harrington and Gallinari…but they were close.

Kobe will get the credit Kobe did not play well..at all. Yet his high PPG and the fact he called out his bigs will certainly help keep his aura of greatness alive. At this point I pretty much have to give up. If the Lakers win Kobe will get the credit and it doesn’t matter what he does.

Summing up

To start the series Arturo said the Nuggets could win. They got so close! In fact, they outscored the Lakers, so I guess that’s a moral victory. The real problem came down to coaching. Your coach can’t sit your great players in the playoffs and hope to win. Notice the Lakers played both Gasol and Bynum over 250 minutes, whereas neither Faried or McGee hit 200 minutes. The difference of 60+ minutes between the two teams’ sets of bigs could easily have changed this series from a seven game nail biter to a six game victory for the Nuggets. I’ll go into the offseason the same as I always seem to: optimistic about the Nuggets roster and pessimistic about how Karl will play them.

-Dre