Undervaluing the Denominator

Last year 458 players took the floor in the NBA.  Given all the people playing college basketball and basketball in other nations, the percentage that reach the Association is truly quite small.  So it’s not surprising when very, very good players don’t quite make the cut.  Still, if a player …

Judging the Value of Anderson Varejao

A few days ago Henry Abbott (of TrueHoop) wrote “Bad Use of Statistics is Killing Anderson Varejao.”  In this post he noted the following: “…there are a lot of bright people out there working on the best way to describe basketball in numbers. There is a lot they do not …

The Game of the Century

Tomorrow is game of the century in the NFL.  The Denver Broncos travel to the Detroit to take on the Lions.  Will the Lions go to 6-2? Will John Elway make a comeback and save Denver’s season? Oh wait, that’s only the game of the century in the Berri house, …

What the Box Score Data Says About Shane Battier

On Wednesday, Henry Abbott of TrueHoop posted a link to an article by Jason Friedman of the Houston Press.  Freidman’s very lengthy article was about the statistical focus of Daryl Morey (general manager of the Houston Rockets).  In essence, Morey is described as part of a new generation of decision-makers …

Will Kevin Durant Be the Best Rookie?

How much does the pre-season data tell us about a rookie’s first season? Last year there were 17 rookies who played at least 100 minutes in the pre-season and at least 500 minutes in the regular season.  Yes, 17 is a small sample.  Still, it’s all we got so let’s …

A Few Wednesday Notes

Here are a few comments for Wednesday.  A quick summary…. Stacey Brook is going to be on the radio, a column from Ed Glaeser indicates that we don’t know how to blog, and I posted a few more comments on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Forecasting the NBA Champion and MVP

Forecasts for the regular season in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference have been posted.  Now it’s time to take a stab at the post-season.  Assuming the regular season forecasts are correct (so we are already starting off badly), here is how I see the playoffs unfolding (and additionally, my …

Forecasting the Western Conference for 2007-08

Yesterday I offered a forecast for the Eastern Conference that had many, many words and very few specifics.  Primarily that is because the Eastern Conference has a few dominant teams (Boston, Chicago, and maybe Cleveland and Detroit), one bad team (the Milwaukee Bucks), and ten teams that are hard to …