What exactly does Dwyane Wade do for Miami?

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After Chris Bosh went down, we had the gall to say the Heat don’t need him. And yet, they’ve been on a two game skid and face keeping Bron from his ring yet again. We will hold firm that the lack of Bosh doesn’t matter. The Heat are missing a key player and that is Dwyane Wade. Let’s use some of our tools to do a run down.

I’ll be using Win Score (the simplified version of Wins Produced), The NBA Geek, and Points over Par(PoP) to explain what makes Wade great and why it hurts that he’s missing. PoP explains the points a player gains their team. E.G. A PoP per game of +3.0 means that your team gains a 3.0 point edge against an opponent. This is done by comparing a player to an average player at their position and then giving a point value to each stat. I use the NBA Geek’s comparison engine to do just that. Enjoy! Small warning: Win Score is an approximation of Wins Produced so it won’t add up exactly.

Dwyane Wade vs. Average shooting guard for 2011-2012

Stat Dwyane Wade Average SG Difference PoP/48 PoP/G
Net PTS 3.5 1.0 2.5 2.6 1.7
Assists 6.6 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.8
Offensive Rebounds 2.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7
Blocks 1.9 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.6
Steals 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.6
Defensive Rebounds 4.8 4.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
Personal Fouls 3.2 3.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.0
Turnovers 3.8 2.7 1.1 -1.1 -0.7
Total 5.8 3.8

During the regular season Wade was earning his team around +3.0 and we can see the primary driver was his offense. His scoring was the key driver +1.7 Points a game, followed by his assists +0.8 points a game and finally his offensive rebounds netted another +0.7 points a game. Not only that the only real “weakness” for Wade were his turnovers, which did hurt but not enough to offset the rest of his greatness. Now what’s happened in round two of the playoffs?

Dwyane Wade vs. Average SG in round two of the 2012 Playoffs

 Stat Wade Average SG ToTal Pop/48 Pop/G
 Blocks 1.7 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.6
 Personal Fouls 2.7 3.1 -0.4 0.2 0.2
 Offensive Rebounds 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
 Steals 1.0 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4
 Assists 3.0 4.2 -1.2 -0.6 -0.5
 Turnovers 3.3 2.7 0.6 -0.6 -0.5
 Defensive Rebounds 2.3 4.5 -2.2 -1.1 -0.9
 Net Points -3.8 1.0 -4.8 -4.9 -3.9
 Total -6.6  -5.2 

In a weird turn, Wade’s once great scoring is now killing both his production and the Heat. Instead of gaining an edge of +2.0 points a game, he is not costing the Heat almost -4.0 points a game. Additionally, instead of being great at everything except turnovers, Wade is now only above average at Blocks, Personal Fouls and Offensive Rebounds.

Summing up

Not only has Wade gone missing, he’s actually turned destructive. Last night, for instance, he cost the Heat -12.0 points! Replacing one of your best players with a terrible player is not a viable strategy for the playoffs. Now it is possible that the loss of Bosh is causing Wade’s bad performance. I can’t really buy that but regardless, the Heat need Wade to come back if they want any hope of advancing, let alone a title.

-Dre

Advanced Box Scores for the 2012 Playoffs: Closing Out Round #1

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“Search for the truth is the noblest occupation of man; its publication is a duty.” -Madame de Stael

Pretty sure I forgot something while I was doing all my picks for round #2…

Oh! I forgot to wrap up round 1 of the playoffs!

That’s the Best Players for round 1 in the playoffs as a word cloud. There is a clear mvp for Round #1 and It’s a surprising member of everyone’s favorite up and coming team (that is to everyone who does not read this blog).

From our old friend at http://www.bouncex3.com/

Mr. Harden continues to improve in the playoffs for the second straight year. Every time I remember that the Perkins trade was originally for Harden, as a Celtics fan, I wanna punch a wall. Remember kids, Here’s the top seasons for guards 22 and under ranked by win shares per 48. Harden only trails CP3. Yeah.

Let’s get to the boxscores and recaps.

Continue reading →

Larry Bird’s Executive of the Year is a travesty

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If we give an award to an executive it should be because they improve their teams wins and do it by making intelligent moves. Larry Bird does not deserve this award at all. Last season the Pacers won 37 wins. This season they improved their wins by 15 (if we adjust to an 82 game season), so clearly it was the brilliant moves made by Larry Bird, right? The answer is no! The Pacer’s success had everything to do with a lucky improvement from Roy Hibbert and a good progression from sophomore Paul George. The moves Larry Bird made to help the team? Well they were mediocre to bad. Let’s review using Basketball-Reference’s transaction data:

If we treat the draft and trade of Kawhi Leonard as one move then the Pacers made eight moves this season. Let’s examine them and grade it to see if Larry deserves an accolades

Trading Leonard was one of the stupidest moves this season

Grade: F

George Hill had been an average player his first three seasons in San Antonio. Kawhi Leonard was projected as the third best rookie in the draft. Also with the 15th pick in the draft Leonard’s contract was gold! He will make less than $2 million a year for the next two seasons, a mere $3 million three seasons from now, and the Spurs have him as a restricted free agent after that. The Pacers paid a little over $2 million for Hill’s contract this season and he is now entering restricted free agency, where his contract will take a bump. Instead of betting very little on a top prospect for an insanely cheap contract, the Pacers chose to invest in an average player. Sure, Hill did improve this season but compared to Leonard it was nothing!

Signing David West was stupid

Grade: C-

The Pacers invested $20 million to sign David West for two seasons. The response will be that David West is a good player and he also played well this season. First, David West is an average player! He is overrated because he averages around 20 points per game. Second David West is over 30 and players over 30 tend to decline. The final part is that the going rate for a win is around $1.7 million. David West tends to average around 5 wins a season. As such his going rate should be around $8.5 million. What’s more Indiana is a small market team. A win is not worth as much in Indiana as it is in a big market like New York. Arturo estimated the value of a win in Indiana at around $1.2 million. So David West’s value in Indiana based on historical data would be around $6 million and that’s assuming he doesn’t age like milk! David West performed at his normal levels, which means the Pacers overpaid David West by $4 million! Wasn’t the whole complaint of the lockout that small market teams were overpaying for marginal talent?

Trading Rush for Amundson was stupid

Grade: F

Brandon Rush is a 26 year old player. He’s been above average his last two seasons and played great this season. Louis Amundson is a 29 year old player. He’s never hit hit 1200 minutes and did not play well last season or this. Why on earth would the Pacers make this trade? The one reason might be that the Pacers wanted to upgrade for size and felt they didn’t need a shooting guard. Unfortunately that reason will fall flat in a second.

Trading for Barbosa was stupid

Grade: F

Barbosa has never been that great of a player. In 2007 and 2009 he had two good seasons but the rest of his career has been marred with mediocrity and he’s frankly been terrible his last several seasons. His contract was also over $7 million this season. The Pacers gave away a draft pick and cash for that! At the market value we discussed above a $7 million contract would require an above average player for the Pacers. At $7 million and a draft pick AND cash? Well they just overpaid like mad. This was a terrible move, especially considering they preempted it by trading away a good shooting guard.

Bad waives and bad pickup

Grade: F

The Pacers waived James Posey. He’s older and hasn’t been productive in years. His contract was around $6 million this season and I assume waiving him was to make room for West. That said, they didn’t gain much by paying him to go away as he only had one season left. In essence they traded him away for flexibility, which they promptly wasted.

The Pacers also waived Jeff Pendergraph. While he has only racked up around 500 career minutes, he has played above average in that time. His salary was a mere $1.5 million. Waiving him and then later trading a good player for Amundson is questionable at best.

Finally, the Pacers picked up Fesenko. He has never been good! He only suited up for 17 minutes (in which he played great) but still! What is the point of picking up a bad player that has never played well in four seasons?

Summing up

There is not a single move on the Pacers’ short list that was good. In fact, all of them were pretty terrible. The lockout was allegedly about small market teams being forced into overpaying. All the Pacers did was overpay for marginal talent! They also ignored good looking young prospects and instead focused on players that have never been great. None of these moves are what define top franchises! Patrick at the NBA Geek completely nails what happened in Indiana. The Pacers lucked into a very good Hibbert and George. There is no move Bird did this season that can take any credit for that! The voters are awarding luck and in doing so they reinforcing the very habits that not even a year ago were being touted as destroying the NBA.

-Dre

(Editor Arturo’s note: I had nothing to do with this, I swear :-) )

Explaining the Heat “collapse”

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I pushed Arturo to get his piece in on why the Heat don’t need Bosh before the game yesterday. It was thus appropriate that the Heat fell on their home court to the Indiana Pacers. I have trouble calling a three point loss a collapse, but I thought I’d give insight into how Arturo was right that the Heat didn’t need Chris Bosh and how they could somehow lose without him playing.

Small sample size warning. This is looking at super small sample sizes in the playoffs. If you’d like more comprehensive analysis of long term data, I welcome you to peruse our archives. If you are like most basketball fans that are enjoying the playoffs though, and want quick answers then read on!

The stat we use for games is Points over Par, don’t freak out! This is the Wins Produced you know and love. Arturo has kindly converted wins to points though, so it will make more sense for a single game. Notice the Heat won by 9 and lost by 3 and that Points over Par adds up to that. Fun right?

The Heat against the Pacers on 5-13-2012 w/ Bosh

Player Pos G MP PoP/48 PoP/G
LeBron James 3.5 1 43.2 12.7 11.4
Joel Anthony 5.0 1 23.6 8.3 4.1
Mike Miller 2.5 1 28.5 2.5 1.5
Mario Chalmers 1.0 1 31.4 0.9 0.6
Ronny Turiaf 5.0 1 10.3 -1.6 -0.3
Chris Bosh 4.9 1 15.8 -3.0 -1.0
Dwyane Wade 1.6 1 40.4 -1.3 -1.1
Shane Battier 2.6 1 23.9 -2.9 -1.4
Udonis Haslem 4.0 1 22.9 -9.6 -4.6
Total 1 240 9.1 9.1

The Heat on 5-15-2012 against the Pacers w/o Bosh

PLAYER POS G MP POP/48 POP/G
LeBron James 3.8 1 42.8 11.0 9.8
Norris Cole 1.0 1 17.1 10.1 3.6
Shane Battier 2.8 1 32.8 5.1 3.5
Dwyane Wade 1.8 1 37.4 0.2 0.1
Joel Anthony 5.0 1 35.0 -1.9 -1.4
James Jones 2.5 1 10.4 -7.8 -1.7
Ronny Turiaf 5.0 1 12.6 -6.7 -1.8
Udonis Haslem 4.0 1 12.3 -7.9 -2.0
Mike Miller 2.5 1 17.1 -14.4 -5.1
Mario Chalmers 1.0 1 22.5 -17.1 -8.0
Total 1 240 -3.0 -3.0

Bron was still amazing

Arturo’s thesis was that Bron could move up to the four and still play amazing. This happened. True, he had a better game one than game two, but he was still an elite player in both games (in fact he was twice as good as Arturo’s cutoff for being elite)

The rest of the Heat went missing

In game one Bosh was not actually productive, so his loss wasn’t the key culprit. Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers and Dwyane Wade have been the other great players pulling the Heat in the playoffs. This was true in round one against the Knicks and was true in game one as well. However, Miller, Chalmers and Wade did not play up to their normal levels and that had to hurt in a close loss.

Coaching freaked out

The Heat’s good players had off games. There is one important follow up on that. Sure you don’t ever bench Dwyane Wade. However, when Chalmers and Miller are having bad games what do you do? Well in this case the answer was to give more minutes to Cole and Battier. Now to be fair Battier and Cole did have good games. The point is you can’t freak out when your players are having off nights. In fact, the coach of the year has one of my favorite sound bytes to that effect.

Summing up

The Heat lost because they were missing some key players. None of these was Chris Bosh. Bron was easily able to take on the role he needed to. It is possible that Bosh’s absence influenced the team chemistry of all of the other players. However, I severely doubt that. As is true with most teams if three of your top six players have an off night against a top seeded team, you may lose. The Heat still almost pulled it out. It’s tempting to believe the Heat might fall apart from here on out. Of course, anyone that thinks that hasn’t been watching them this season.

-Dre

The Ennui of Chris Bosh

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“Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.” – William Shakespeare  from Macbeth

I got into a heated twitter debate the other day. The reason behind it was the Chris Bosh injury.

Specifically it was my belief that Bosh being out and LBJ playing at the 4 makes Miami more not less likely to win. Why you ask?

To win or contend for a championship a team must:

  • Win 52 or more games (or 42 this year)
  • Have two star points (either >2 Stars, > Star + Superstar or > 2 Superstars) in your Playoff Top 6. A star is >2.5 Point over Par per 48 player, a Superstar is a >5.0 Point over Par per 48 player.
  • Have at least one > +1 Point over Par per 48 player who plays PF or Center in your Playoff Top 6 (This is the Suns Corollary)
  • A superstar puts you in the conversation if you can make it into the playoffs and surround him with talent (i.e no duds) in the top 6 (This is the Hakeem Factor).

You need a quality big to win it all and Miami seemed to be all out this year. They have the wins and the stars but the quality of the bigs in their rotation has been the fly in the ointment with this team (as it was last year).

But a funny thing happens when you take out Chris Bosh.

Moving the MVP to power Forward makes everything better. The rotation is better with Lebron at 4. We know nobody’s won with 4/5s as bad as Miami in their top 6. Lebron at the 4 changes that. Add in the possibility of Joel Anthony sneaking into the top half of the rotation and it could become even better.

Nevermind, the idea of James on the block and Wade at the top of the key is frightening. As a point of reference, Miami was +15 in 20 minutes with lineups using LeBron James at power forward.

So if I try to guess what Pat Riley is saying to Chris right now it goes something like this: “No,Chris, take your time, we don’t want you risking your future. we’ll make due. Somehow”

-Arturo