While at the beach

This past Wednesday morning I received an e-mail from Tim Lemke of The Washington Times. Lemke was working on a story examining whether or not there was any real impact in professional sports from scandals (such as the recent behavior of NBA referee Tim Donaghy). Lemke’s story, entitled Nothing Like …

Can Adam Morrison Be Saved?

On Sunday I noted that there was a 0.69 correlation between a rookie’s productivity and that player’s per-minute productivity the rest of his career. This was an exceedingly crude study. The only explanatory variable was rookie performance. Players who played more than 10 years were lumped in with players who …

Point Shaving in the NBA

There are two big stories today. The first is the proposed Kevin Garnett deal, which appears to make the Celtics into a title contender in 2008 (but perhaps in trouble in a few years) and the Timberwolves into a lottery team (which they already were). Although this is a great …

When Will We Know About Greg Oden?

On Friday I compared the performance of the top pick in the NBA draft to the performance of the most productive player selected in each draft since 1991. Or as I put it – I compared The Top Pick vs. The Top Pick. In this post was the following table, …

The Top Pick vs. The Top Pick

Today I am going to briefly address two questions. 1. How often is the number one pick in the draft the most productive NBA player? 2. Who is the most productive NBA player from each draft class (since 1991)? To answer the first question we first need to consider the …

The Undrafted in the NBA

From 1991 to 2006, there were 1,098 players who made their debut in the NBA (according to data at Basketball-Reference.com). By my count, 327 of these players were never drafted. This works out to an average of about 20 such players each year. Just last year, 27 players (again by …

How The Sports Media Evaluates NBA Talent

There is much debate about how to measure the productivity of an NBA player. There is NBA Efficiency, the Player Efficiency Rating, Win Score, Wins Produced, Plus-Minus, Adjusted Plus-Minus, and many more. One might wonder (at least I do) with all these choices, how do the sports media evaluate talent? …

Avoiding Work on Tuesday

My general rule is that I post at most once a day. Although I am tempted to do more than this, my job as a professor (for which I am paid by the state of California) is about teaching and research. For nine months of the year I teach and …