Tag Archives: Hakeem Olajuwon

Who were the real Playoff MVPs of 1995?

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With the lockout in full swing our analysts have been antsy. We’re happy to answer fan requests for historical fact checking*. Today’s request comes via a Tweet from Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index:

@NerdNumbers You have your assignment RT @NBAHistory: Announcer Bob Neal: “Horace Grant is the MVP for the Magic in this series thus far.” @NBATV NOW (Orl/Chi, Gm 6, ’95 EC Semis)

The 1995 playoffs were pretty crazy. The Orlando Magic took down the Bulls despite Michael Jordan returning. The Houston Rockets shocked the world and won it all despite being a lowly sixth seed. Two surprising facts came from these two series.

Horace Grant was the MVP of the Magic-Bulls Series

Don't look back, they might be gaining!

In a series with Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal, it’s surprising to realize the best player on the court was indeed Horace Grant. Here was the breakdown in terms of Wins:

  1. Horace Grant (Orlando Magic) 251 Minutes, 0.293 WP48, 1.53 Wins Produced
  2. Shaquille O’Neal (Orlando Magic) 238 Minutes, 0.265 WP48, 1.31 Wins Produced
  3. Scottie Pippen (Chicago Bulls) 248 Minutes, 0.221 Wp48, 1.14 Wins Produced
  4. Michael Jordan (Chicago Bulls) 254 Minutes, 0.192 Wp48, 1.02 Wins Produced
  5. Anfernee Hardaway (Orlando Magic) 246 Minutes, 0.133 WP48, 0.68 Wins Produced

Bob Neal was speaking the truth. Horace Grant was better (just barely) than Shaq, and together Shaq and Horace rant circles around Scottie and Michael. Of course Horace and Shaq’s great play may have come from playing a team lacking bigs. Against the Rockets they crumbled when faced with Hakeem’s Finals MVP performance. . . or did they? That brings us to surprise fact number two.

Clyde Drexler was the real finals MVP in 1995

Well at least they both got a trophy.

We can maybe give Hakeem some credit for slowing down Shaq in the finals. That said, Clyde’s performance was inspired. Here’s how the finals went down:

  1. Clyde Drexler (Houston Rockets) 162 Minutes, 0.342 WP48 1.15 Wins Produced
  2. Robert Horry (Houston Rockets) 187 Minutes, 0.213 WP48, 0.83 Wins Produced
  3. Mario Elie (Houston Rockets) 161 Minutes, 0.199 WP48, 0.69 Wins Produced
  4. Shaquille O’Neal (Orlando Magic) 180 Minutes, 0.176 WP48, 0.66 Wins Produced
  5. Anfernee Hardaway (Orlando Magic) 172 Minutes, 0.179 WP48, 0.64 Wins Produced
  6. Nick Anderson (Orlando Magic) 161 Minutes, 0.160 WP48, 0.54 Wins Produced
  7. Hakeem Olajuwon (Houston Rockets) 179 Minutes, 0.122 WP48, 0.46 Wins Produced
  8. Horace Grant (Orlando Magic) 168 Minutes, 0.084 WP48, 0.30 Wins Produced

Sadly Horace Grant’s greatness disapeared in the finals. But the story wasn’t Hakeem outplaying the bigs of Orlando; the real story was how Clyde Drexler and Robert Horry destroyed the Magic from the wings.

With no NBA in front of us for the foreseeable future, it is fun to go back to the past. Let us know if you have any weird stories you want us to look into and — provided we have time and there are no developments with the lockout — maybe we’ll look into it.

-Dre

* Don’t worry Mark, I haven’t forgotten about the Spurs, they’re on deck.

Arvydas Sabonis and other Centers that Aged like Fine Wine.

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 Greg Steele is a student at Abilene Christian University and a long-time Houston Rockets fan. Being short and round (and not like Charles Barkley), Greg is a basketball watcher, not a basketball player. As such, Greg was attracted to statistical measures which recognize the contributions of round and clumsy players as well as those of the more aesthetically pleasing players, so the Wages of Wins was a natural fit. Greg is available via email at ges05a@acu.edu

Hall of Fame

Sabonis is in unique company.

This past Friday the 2011 class was inducted into the NBA Hall of Fame. Although Dennis Rodman occupied much of the spotlight (as usual), well-known scorers Artis Gilmore and Chris Mullins received plenty of attention. The inductee who has been overlooked, though, is the tallest of the class: Arvydas Sabonis.

Sabonis was inducted into the Hall of Fame at least partially because he was one of the first international players to jump to the NBA. Unfortunately, Sabonis came along in a time before the globalization of the NBA, and so Sabonis only entered the NBA as a 31 year-old “rookie.” Despite his late start, Sabonis’ short career was very productive. While we have almost no statistical information about Sabonis’ career before he came to the NBA, we can compare his performance after the age of 31 with the 3 best centers in the last 20 years, all of whom played well beyond their 31st birthdays: Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, and Shaquille O’Neal. The chart below compares the performances of the four centers after the age of 31.

Table 1: Wins Produced for Top Centers that played over the age of 30

Hakeem Olajuwon Shaquille O’Neal David Robinson Arvydas Sabonis
WP at 31 20.6 15.4 1.2 13.3
WP at 32 15.6 15.9 17.8 10.5
WP at 33 15.5 8.5 18.4 12.7
WP at 34 10.4 3.0 16.6 9.2
WP at 35 7.0 5.6 13.9 9.8
WP at 36 10.4 12.4 12.9 3.5
WP at 37 2.0 3.7 9.2 DNP
WP at 38 6.6 2.1 Retired 6.1
WP at 39 3.7 Retired Retired Retired
Total WP in 30s 91.8 66.6 90 65.1
Career WP% 33.70% 24.50% 34.80% 100%

 Table 2: Wins Produced per 48 Minutes for Top Centers that played over the age of 30

Hakeem Olajuwon Shaquille O’Neal David Robinson Arvydas Sabonis
WP48 at 31 0.302 0.300 0.390 0.368
WP48 at 32 0.262 0.306 0.348 0.280
WP48 at 33 0.267 0.225 0.348 0.261
WP48 at 34 0.176 0.128 0.311 0.227
WP48 at 35 0.205 0.153 0.281 0.278
WP48 at 36 0.207 0.265 0.269 0.129
WP48 at 37 0.093 0.142 0.264 DNP
WP48 at 38 0.206 0.137 Retired 0.243
WP48 at 39 0.130 Retired Retired Retired
WP48 in 30s 0.205 0.207 0.316 0.256

Clearly, Robinson is the class of the group, followed by Olajuwon, who was better as an older player, and Shaq, who was better as a younger player. While Sabonis’ 65.1 Wins Produced lag significantly behind Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, the mean WP48 of Sabonis’ 7 seasons after age 31 is higher than the mean WP48 of Olajuwon’s 9 seasons after the age of 31. Sabonis’ mean WP48 is also significantly higher than O’Neal’s, even though O’Neal only played one more season than Sabonis.

A Tale of Two Cities: Sabonis and Shaq

Shaq and Sabonis. . . foul?

Sabonis is most similar after the age of 31 to Shaq, whose late-career output accounted for only 24.5% of his total career Wins Produced. If we project Sabonis’ career along the same career arc that we see with O’Neal, making Sabonis’ 65.1 WP after age 31 account for 24.5% of his “career” WP, we come up with an estimated 265.7 Wins produced for Sabonis, if he had entered the NBA as a younger man. Shaquille O’Neal turned 20 in his first NBA season, unlike Robinson (24) or Olajuwon (22). Again we find that Sabonis is more directly comparable with O’Neal, since Sabonis was the star of the Soviet Olympic team at the age of 19. Thus, using Shaq’s career arc as an approximation of Sabonis career arc seems reasonable because: 1) The two had very similar production after the age of 31, and 2) both began playing top-level basketball as young players.

Summing Up

As you can see Sabonis easily belongs as a member of this group. It’s somewhat fitting that Sabonis made the hall of fame the same season Shaq retired. While we got to see Shaq play for a very long time, we only got to see Sabonis play at the twighlight of his career. Let’s just be happy that thanks to the Hall of Fame his greatness won’t be forgotten.

-Greg

North Carolina and UCLA Produced the Most Wins for the NBA

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In my last post I noted that the longer NBA players are in college, the less they offer in the NBA.   Today it is a different question.  Which universities are turning out the most productive NBA players?

The NBA drafted players from 346 different institutions of higher learning from 1978 to 2010. See this spreadsheet for the full list.

Below is a list of the top 10 schools in wins produced. As one can see, NBA players from the University of North Carolina and UCLA produced over 200 more wins than players from any other college since 1978.

1. University of North Carolina: 54 players produced 1285.8 wins

You were expecting someone else?

  • Most productive alum: Michael Jordan with 284.2 wins produced
  • Least productive alum: Joe Wolf with -17.7 wins produced

2. University of California, Los Angeles: 65 players produced 1052.5 wins

Miller time.

3. Duke University: 38 players produced 826.5 wins

If not for the Pistons he coulda been a contender.

  • Most productive alum: Grant Hill with 137.9 wins produced
  • Least productive alum: Bobby Hurley with -5.2 wins produced

4. Michigan State University: 26 players produced 759.5 wins

Magic Johnson was worth about four players.

5. University of Houston: 21 players produced 724.6 wins

Houston's Dream #1 Pick and Robinson's Nightmare.

6. Georgetown University: 25 players produced 721.6 wins

Rejected!

7. University of Arizona: 39 players produced 570 wins

A.I who?

8. Clemson University: 13 players produced 568.8 wins

See Cleveland it's not so bad.

9. University of Nevada-Las Vegas: 29 players produced 561.6 wins

Finally a title and a spot on a top ten list!

10. Wake Forest University: 20 players produced 547.1 wins

Just happy to be here.

Summing Up

Let me close with a few more observations…

The stats required to calculate wins produced only go back to 1978. The first eight seasons for the career of UCLA’s best alum in the NBA, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, were not included in this analysis. That’s why Kareem is not the most productive UCLA alum since 1978. See this spreadsheet for the full list of alumni for each school in the top 10.

Traditional basketball powerhouses, Kentucky and Kansas, placed the third and fourth-highest number of players in the NBA after UCLA and UNC, but only rank 15th and 18th in wins produced (of course, if Wilt Chamberlain from Kansas could be included, Kansas might be ranked a bit higher).

No Kentucky Wildcat produced more than 100 wins in the NBA since 1978. Rajon Rondo is the all-time leader with 65 wins produced.

Paul Pierce is the all-time leader in wins produced for Kansas Jayhawks with 157.9 wins produced but no other alum produced more than 50 wins.

University of Houston is the only school in the top 10 with two alumni that produced more than 200 wins in their careers; Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler (222.9 wins produced). The next closest school is Georgetown with Mutombo and Patrick Ewing (172.2 wins produced).

Clemson powered its way into the top 10 with three power forwards that produced more than 100 wins each: Larry Nance, Horace Grant (142 wins produced) and Dale Davis (120.8 wins produced).

Tim Duncan and Chris Paul combined to produce 368.2 wins (fifth-highest of any duo in the top 10) to land Wake Forest among the top schools.

Now that we know which colleges produced the most wins, the next question is whether the NBA overpaid for the college education of those players. That issue will be addressed in a future post.

-Mosi (check out more from Mosi Platt at the Miami Heat Index)