Tag Archives: Kobe Bryant

Should the Lakers part ways with Pau Gasol?

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With the “disappointing” — and by disappointing, I mean completely predictable — end to the Lakers season, there’s a question: Do the Lakers need to break up Pau and Kobe? Such a thought brings up memories of the original Shaq and Kobe split. While this blog may have a slightly negative Kobe tone, we did side with Kobe in 2004. If you dust off your copy of Wages of Wins, you can reminded of the following facts:

  • Kobe and Shaq were both very good players
  • Their last season together Kobe was close to overtaking Shaq’s production
  • Much of this had to do with the fact the Shaq had gotten old
  • Additionally Shaq had a market value of near $20 million a season

Now, here’s the interesting part about Shaq’s last season on the Lakers, he was 31 years old! This is now true of Pau Gasol! Let’s take a quick examination of Pau’s career, using the numbers from the NBA Geek:

Season Team Games Minutes WP48 Wins Produced
2001-2002 Memphis 82 3007 0.214 13.4
2002-2003 Memphis 82 2948 0.122 7.5
2003-2004 Memphis 78 2458 0.129 6.6
2004-2005 Memphis 56 1790 0.185 6.9
2005-2006 Memphis 80 3135 0.184 12.0
2006-2007 Memphis 59 2133 0.167 7.4
2007-2008 Memphis-L.A. Lakers 66 2351 0.159 7.8
2008-2009 L.A. Lakers 81 2999 0.234 14.6
2009-2010 L.A. Lakers 65 2403 0.264 13.2
2010-2011 L.A. Lakers 82 3041 0.265 16.8
2011-2012 L.A. Lakers 65 2430 0.142 7.2

Pau put up some of his best seasons when the Lakers made their trips to the finals. He in fact hit his top season two seasons ago. It’s possible playing with Kobe helped this. Another theory from Stumbling on Wins is that playing under the Zen-Master Phil Jackson was a key component. That said, Pau will be 32 next season, the age when most players start to fall apart. He has two seasons left on his contract worth almost $40 million. Worse still, he showed the starting signs of decline this season.

Now simply dumping Pau’s contract is not advisable. He’s still a good big and there is value there. However, if a good trade comes along for him, they should definitely take it. The second part of this though is if this is Pau vs. Kobe. It’s not. Kobe’s contract is even worse and every single thing that applies to Pau is even worse for Kobe. Kobe may still have trade value but his contract means the Lakers would need to take nearly $30 million in contracts back. It is unlikely any team with $30 million in good contracts wants to spend them on Kobe. The suggestion here is one Patrick Minton has had for a while: Amnesty Kobe! Some team will pick up some of the salary, and it will free up tons of cap space and also save some on the cap hit the Lakers currently incur.

Here is my advice for the Lakers

  • Trade Pau if there is a decent option
  • Amnesty Kobe
  • Pick up Bynum’s option
  • Don’t make any other dumb signings like Steve Blake, Metta World Peace or Derek Fisher

This could leave the Lakers in a decent spot going forward. Of course, doing this would mean admitting that when it comes to Pau vs. Kobe the real answer is neither!

-Dre

How Durant won a not so close scoring race against Kobe.

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The real scoring race finish

Rank Player G Total/G
1 Kevin Durant 66 5.0
2 LeBron James 63 4.7
3 James Harden 62 4.1
4 Tyson Chandler 63 3.3
5 Kevin Love 57 3.0
6 Andrew Bynum 61 2.9
7 Chris Paul 61 2.7
8 Steve Nash 62 2.5
9 Dirk Nowitzki 62 2.4
10 Ryan Anderson 62 2.4

Coming into the last day of the season the scoring race between Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant was tight. Kobe needed 38 points to take the scoring title from Durant. I was completely prepared to hear David Robinson comparisons if Kobe blew out Sacramento.  Then Kobe sat out against Sacramento and Durant narrowly won the scoring title, which is defined by the NBA as the player that leads in points per game.

To call it a scoring race between Durant and Kobe is ridiculous. Simply comparing how many points two players score doesn’t actually tell you much. In fact, that is the very essence of the Yay Points! thesis. Scoring points matters but how you score them matters too.

A point is a valuable commodity, but it is not the only stat in basketball that matters. Using points as a form of currency can we put a value on the other stats in basketball? The answer is yes and that doing so is very good at explaining winning. When we look at the cost of a shot in basketball it actually costs the team around a point. This is because a shot gives up possession of the ball and the exchange rate for possessions to points is roughly one. It is the case that a free throw attempt is worth less than half a point and this is because around half the time the free throw doesn’t result in a change of possession.

Leaving out shot attempts and free throw attempts leaves out a very important piece of information needed when evaluating players. It turns out that in terms of the scoring race that Durant is in first place, the same story can’t be told for Kobe.

Let’s do a quick breakdown. If we take the number of points a player gets, subtract the number of field goal attempts (remember a point is worth a shot) and subtract 44% of their free throw attempts we see how many NET points (pun intended) a player earns us. As a last step if we divide by games played we get the real rundown of the scoring race.

Rank Player G PPG Cost/G Total/G
1 Kevin Durant 66 28.0 -23.0 5.0
2 LeBron James 63 26.7 -22.1 4.7
3 James Harden 62 16.8 -12.8 4.1
4 Tyson Chandler 63 11.1 -7.8 3.3
5 Kevin Love 57 25.1 -22.1 3.0
6 Andrew Bynum 61 18.4 -15.5 2.9
7 Chris Paul 61 19.5 -16.8 2.7
8 Steve Nash 62 12.5 -10.0 2.5
9 Dirk Nowitzki 62 21.6 -19.2 2.4
10 Ryan Anderson 62 15.8 -13.4 2.4
… … … … … …
… … … … … …
38 Carlos Boozer 66 15.0 -13.7 1.3
39 Kobe Bryant 61 26.5 -25.2 1.3
40 Mario Chalmers 64 9.8 -8.5 1.3
41 Tony Parker 61 18.0 -16.6 1.3
42 Rodney Stuckey 58 11.2 -9.9 1.3
43 Devin Harris 64 9.1 -7.9 1.3

On a points per game basis, sure Kobe is near the top of the heap. The trick is he takes the most shots. Combine his shots and free throws and he’s spending 25.2 points a game (while earning 26.5 points a game) This is two more shots a game than Durant and three more a game than LeBron and Love (his closest competitors). Put it all together and Kobe isn’t in the same field as Durant and Bron (the real winners in the scoring race.) No, Kobe is in the same company as Chalmers, Tony Parker, Rodney Stuckey and Devin Harris. We should note Tony Parker has also been getting a lot of credit too. He is in essence a Kobe Light.

We should point out the NBA set the rules on the scoring title. Teams pay for points per game. Kobe is doing the best strategy to maximize his value. As fans we want wins and titles. Of course for most player their ability to make a big dent on their team wins is little and for any player the odds of a title are low. I might be able to criticize Kobe for not scoring effectively but that’s much like him criticizing this blog for its lack of articles on cricket. While Kobe’s scoring may make Laker fans unhappy as it doesn’t help them win, the real villain is the NBA and its management. By putting an award based just on points per game, and hosting All-Star games for top scorers and paying ludicrous salaries to the top scorers, why wouldn’t Kobe (and others) race to score inefficiently?

-Dre

The Kobe effect

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Editor’s Note: The following comes courtesy of Chris Yeh (@chrisyeh) from Adventures in Capitalism. You may recall him as a guest podcast we had a few week back. Chris’ insights were great but the audio quality was iffy. I notice Chris is now pitching an improved podcast app, coincidence? Chris is a Lakers fan and a Kobe fan (unlike some editors still bitter over the 2009 playoffs) and wanted to offer up his take on the Lakers performance in the absence of Kobe. Enjoy!

It just so happens that we have a very interesting experiment going on right now.

From March 23 to April 7, the Lakers used a starting lineup of Sessions-Bryant-World Peace-Gasol-Bynum.  They went 6-3.  Thanks to the handy-dandy “Game Splits” feature of NerdNumbers.com, we can check out how the Lakers were winning:

Los Angeles Lakers from March 23rd to April 7th 2012
Player Pos G MP WP48 WP
Ramon Sessions 1.1 10 329.9 0.193 1.33
Pau Gasol 4.3 10 372.9 0.113 0.87
Metta World Peace 3.0 10 303.9 0.114 0.72
Matt Barnes 2.7 10 267.5 0.095 0.53
Andrew Bynum 5.0 9 294.6 0.065 0.40
Josh McRoberts 4.1 10 192.7 0.077 0.31
Kobe Bryant 2.0 9 337.3 0.007 0.05
Andrew Goudelock 1.5 4 1.5 -0.155 -0.00
Darius Morris 1.0 4 1.5 -0.546 -0.02
Troy Murphy 4.5 9 85.5 -0.015 -0.03
Devin Ebanks 2.0 4 32.2 -0.064 -0.04
Steve Blake 1.0 10 180.4 -0.011 -0.04

Starting April 8, Kobe Bryant started sitting out games.  If you asked me on April 8 how things might go without Bryant, I would have theorized that Gasol and Bynum would get more touches and play better.  Let’s see what happened.

Los Angeles Lakers from April 8th to April 18th 2012
Player Pos G MP WP48 WP
Matt Barnes 2.4 6 164.4 0.501 1.72
Metta World Peace 3.0 6 223.4 0.147 0.69
Pau Gasol 4.2 6 228.6 0.090 0.43
Ramon Sessions 1.3 6 189.6 0.104 0.41
Andrew Bynum 5.0 6 216.0 0.079 0.36
Josh McRoberts 4.0 6 87.2 0.091 0.17
Devin Ebanks 2.0 6 145.0 0.028 0.08
Jordan Hill 4.5 3 6.2 0.609 0.08
Steve Blake 1.0 6 145.0 -0.002 -0.01
Andrew Goudelock 1.5 3 4.3 -0.240 -0.02
Troy Murphy 4.5 6 47.3 -0.117 -0.11
Darius Morris 1.0 4 8.0 -1.166 -0.19

As always, small sample sizes demand that we take the results with a grain of salt.  But, some interesting things stand out:

1)      Gasol, Bynum, and Sessions have played notably worse without Bryant in the lineup. (Editor’s Note: I included the 4-18 Lakers game against the Golden State Tanks. We’ll notice that in a small sample size one game brought Bynum up to his Kobe levels, which as of late have been bad.)

2)      World Peace and Barnes played notably better without Bryant in the lineup.   In fact, Barnes went from average to LeBron over the course of those 6 games, while World Peace has been an above average player while starting with Sessions (after being below average—WP48 0.040—in his first 46 games)

3)      Because Bryant wasn’t playing well before his injury, they’ve actually gotten more production out of Ebanks than Bryant

Prior to this year, Bryant has always been an above-average to great player (though not a superstar certainly).  This year, he has been well below average.  Logically, the Lakers would be far better off if Bryant shot less and deferred to Bynum and Gasol.  Yet without Bryant in the lineup, the performance of the Lakers twin towers of Gasol and Bynum has been truly abysmal (though thanks to the power of raw numbers, most NBA commentators have praised Gasol and Bynum for “stepping up” in the absence of the team’s “superstar”).  Only an insanely hot stretch by Matt Barnes has kept the Bryant-less Lakers afloat.  It may be that Kobe’s (somewhat irrational) reputation with his fellow NBA players enables him to serve as a powerful decoy to free up his big men, even when his poor shooting has made him a below-average player.  That being said, I suspect that the decoy effect would still have its positive effects even if he cut down his league-leading usage rate.

Perhaps Kobe’s injury is a blessing in disguise for the Lakers.  If Kobe returns and moderates his shooting, but still serves his role as “closer” (read: decoy), the Lakers can play at maximum efficiency and do more damage in the playoffs, resulting in Matt Barnes hoisting the trophy for his Finals MVP award — joking … sort of.

-Chris

Editor’s Note: p.s. Mr. PL (@pl_2002) has asked me about this several times on twitter. Asking me to post on it would be akin to me having to compliment George Karl’s coaching. Luckily Chris was nice enough to be able to address the subject. Happy?

Why calling Kobe an MVP candidate is insane

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Michael Penn recently asked us to do a post on Kobe’s out of control shooting. After almost losing to a terrible Golden State Warriors team, the timing seemed appropriate. The simple fact is that Kobe is having a terrible season. Let’s take a quick look at how the Lakers have been doing:

WP48 calculates the Wins per 48 minutes a player earns. 0.100 is average. PoP/G calculates the number of Points over Par a player generates for their team in a game. 0.0 is average.

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Andrew Bynum 5.0 46 1644.2 0.232 7.94 4.1 3.1
Pau Gasol 4.2 50 1859.3 0.186 7.22 2.7 2.1
Matt Barnes 3.0 48 1042.2 0.226 4.91 4.0 1.8
Kobe Bryant 2.0 50 1927.6 0.059 2.37 -1.2 -1.0
Derek Fisher 1.0 43 1100.9 0.064 1.46 -1.1 -0.6
Metta World Peace 3.1 49 1242.8 0.048 1.23 -1.6 -0.8
Josh McRoberts 4.1 35 438.9 0.133 1.22 1.1 0.3
Ramon Sessions 1.1 7 201.1 0.273 1.14 5.4 3.2
Troy Murphy 4.5 47 797.5 0.061 1.02 -1.2 -0.4
Steve Blake 1.0 37 882.4 0.045 0.83 -1.7 -0.8
Luke Walton 3.2 12 64.6 0.188 0.25 2.8 0.3
Devin Ebanks 2.6 19 154.8 0.075 0.24 -0.8 -0.1
Darius Morris 1.1 16 136.1 0.014 0.04 -2.6 -0.5
Jordan Hill 4.5 3 3.2 0.429 0.03 10.3 0.2
Jason Kapono 2.5 28 269.1 -0.000 -0.00 -3.1 -0.6
Andrew Goudelock 1.6 39 385.3 -0.095 -0.76 -6.0 -1.2
TOTAL 50 12150 0.115 29.16 2.5 2.5

We see the Lakers are similar to the Clippers and Suns. They have three very good players and not much else. The trade for Ramon Sessions is paying off very well. However, I can’t imagine he’ll keep playing at his current levels.

The Lakers have a very potent front court and very little in the backcourt. Recently, I discussed how any team going after Derek Fisher was crazy. The Lakers finally giving up on his leadership to get a real point guard was a smart move. The thing is, this season Kobe was playing about as poorly as Derek Fisher. The Lakers have been winning in spite of their backcourt of Fisher and Kobe. The leadership Fisher provided while he was here and the “winning attitude” Kobe provides don’t really make up for the fact that neither player is that good.

Kobe used to be good

Kobe Bryant Wins Produced for the last five seasons.
Season Rank Pos MP WP48 WP
2007 22 2.0 3140 0.170 11.1
2008 14 2.2 3192 0.194 12.9
2009 14 2.0 2960 0.182 11.2
2010 50 2.3 2835 0.124 7.3
2011 59 2.1 2779 0.128 7.4

Unlike Derek Fisher, Kobe used to be a very good player. In fact, looking back right before the Lakers became relevent again right through last season’s playoff fizzle we can see Kobe was a good player. However, he went from being a top player in the league to being slightly above average. This is because older players age like milk.

The real oddity in all of this is the fact that people still think Kobe is relevent. He’s still on several MVP rankings. The impact of his clutchness is still being discussed. Lost in all of this is that Kobe is playing terribly this season and that’s even using Kobe’s own stats as a barometer. We can use the NBA Geek comparison engine to quickly explain why Kobe is bad: His shooting is average and his turnovers are really high. Let’s look at Kobe’s numbers in relation to his career to help complete the story:

  • Kobe is shooting a 52.6% true shooting percentage. This is the worst of his career behind 2001-2002 (54.3%)
  • Kobe is taking 25.1 true shots per 36 minutes. This is the 2nd most in his career behind 2005-2006 (27.9)
  • Kobe is getting 3.6 turnovers per 36 minutes. This is the 2nd worst of his career behind 1996-1997 (3.7)
  • Kobe is getting 1.2 steals per 36 minutes. This is a career low for him tied with with 2004-2005.
  • Kobe’s 4.4 assists per 36 minutes are the lowest he’s had since 2005-2006.

Kobe is shooting the worst he ever has but is still taking a lot of shots. It turns out Kobe also used to do more than score. However, we can see his steals, turnovers and assists have all been getting worse. This of course leads us to the final most important fact:

  • Kobe is getting 28.3 points per game. This is the fifth highest of his career.

Kobe’s numbers and efficiency have dropped! By keeping his shots up he is keeping his points per game up. It seems this very simple trick has worked. It’s also important that Kobe is also on a winning team. As we’ve pointed out, players that score lots of points but don’t win can be discovered. As long as Bynum, Gasol, Barnes and Sessions keep playing well then Kobe can keep taking lots of shots. And by keeping his scoring totals high people will think he is still a good player, even though he has clearly lost a step. Of course, readers of this blog are different and we’ll simply laugh loudly at anyone that is insane enough to say they’d take Kobe over Dwyane Wade.

-Dre

p.s. As you may have noticed, we’re having a contest to guess which player will have the best game in the remaining games this season. As a fun tidit. Kobe played the single worst game this season on the 1st of January.

 

Should teams try and sign Obama instead of Derek Fisher?

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Derek Fisher accepted a buyout of his contract with the Houston Rockets. In doing so he left $3.4 million on the table in the hopes of playing for a contender. The rest of this article will not be kind to Derek Fisher, you’ve been warned. Derek Fisher has five rings and has been to seven finals. Using the rings argument he’s right up there with Kobe Bryant. In leaving money on the table, Fisher is under the assumption that a better team than Houston will want him. It should be noted that Houston currently sports a winning record and would make the playoffs if the season ended today.

While some astute fans will say that Fisher should not join their team, the fact is that Fisher’s mindset is not considered insane by everyone. Frankly, it should be. Let’s do a quick recap of Derek Fisher’s resume at the start of his title days:

Derek Fisher’s championship resume.
Season Players Position Minutes WP48 Wins Salary
2000 LA Lakers 1 1803 0.045 1.71 $3.00
2001 LA Lakers 1 709 0.118 1.74 $3.38
2002 LA Lakers 1 1974 0.117 4.81 $3.00
2003 LA Lakers 1 2829 0.093 5.47 $3.00
2004 LA Lakers 1 1769 0.047 1.74 $3.00
2005 Golden State 1.4 2222 0.073 3.4 $4.90
2006 Golden State 1.3 2589 0.106 5.69 $5.39
2007 Utah 1.8 2287 0.035 1.67 $5.88
2008 LA Lakers 1.1 2249 0.071 3.31 $6.37
2009 LA Lakers 1 2441 0.103 5.23 $4.35
2010 LA Lakers 1 2227 0.053 2.48 $4.70
2011 LA Lakers 1 2297 0.048 2.31 $5.05
2012 LA Lakers 1 1101 0.061 1.4 $3.70

Examing Fisher’s career thanks to the stats at NBA Geek we can see some truths. What exactly is Fisher good at? Well his turnovers have traditionally been lower than average, of course so have his his assists. His steals have been slightly above average. His two point shooting has never been that great but his three point shooting has been pretty good. However, add it all up and you get a mostly average player that has been declining in the last three seasons. Why would any team want a below average thirty-seven year old on their team?

In fact, when we look at Fisher’s championship seasons we see he hasn’t contributed too much. In 2002 and 2009 he was a slightly above average player. But in 2000, 2010 and 2011 he was below average. In 2001 he barely played any minutes. Fisher’s championship caliber has had more to do with his team mates than his own skills. People defending Fisher may say a traditional point guard isn’t needed as much in the triangle offense. While that may be true, we can notice he was below average in his time in Golden State. What’s more, if his position didn’t matter then why should he be given credit for contributing on his title teams?

When it comes to stats or position it seems people accept that Fisher doesn’t really excel at either. Really it’s his championship pedigree and leadership that people point at. Good teams have players with the right attitude! I’ll argue that Fisher’s championship pedigree has come from playing next to players like Shaquille O’Neal, Pau Gasol and yes, Kobe Bryant.

As for Fisher’s leadership? If this is truly a quality that people are looking for, than let me offer an alternative. Barack Obama is a basketball fan (apparently it’s in his DNA). He also has a pretty decent set of basketball knowledge and clearly has a great deal of leadership on his resume. The president’s salary is roughly $400,000, which is below the NBA league minimum. Team’s are content with Fisher’s poor stats because of his great leadership. If team’s want to pay for that though, I’d say Obama is a superior choice and his price tag is lower. Of course, it’s also entirely possible that Fisher has just been lucky to play on good teams. It’s possible that such players get more credit than they deserve. But if that’s not the case then here’s hoping Obama likes your team!

-Dre