Tag Archives: Kobe Bryant

Kobe and Nene are selfish and could take a lesson from Melo

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Over at the NBA Geek, Patrick Minton (@nbageek) recently made a great post — Mike Brown, Kobe and Lessons from the Movies. The highlights include:

  • Mike Brown saying Kobe is MVP is like sucking up to your boss. Office Space shows that Brown could excel if he would stop caring so much.
  • Kobe is like Sally in When Harry Met Sally. He’s a high-maintenance player that thinks he’s low maintenance.
  • Like every sports movie ever Kobe is that selfish player the coach turns around….except he’s never been turned around.

Patrick also makes the excellent point that this season Kobe is actually a slightly above average shooter — for a shooting guard — but he plays on the same team as two much better shooters.

  • Kobe Bryant - 24 FGA/G, 8 FTA/G, 52.5% True Shooting Percentage
  • Pau Gasol – 13.4 FGA/G, 3.9 FTA/G, 55.3% True Shooting Percentage
  • Andrew Bynum – 12.1 FGA/G 5.2 FTA/G, 59.2% True Shooting Percentage

Despite playing on a team with two bigs that shoot much better than he does, Kobe insists on taking almost as many shots as the two put together. In recent losses he’s shot the Lakers right out of the game. We’re not claiming Bryant should stop shooting. However, he’s taking the second most shots of his career. Can anyone claim giving 2-3 extra shots a game to his talented bigs would really hurt his team?

Maybe when Bron made his surprise move to South Beach Kobe knew his odds of hitting Jordan’s six titles or Magic’s three finals MVPs dropped. Maybe he decided to start just focusing on individual records that didn’t require a great team. Oddly Kobe could take a lesson from Carmelo Anthony and his time on the Nuggets.

Nene is selfish and Melo is a team player

Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony are popular names around here. We use them as examples of overrated scorers that shoot too much. In 2006 though something was a bit different.

In 2006 Melo was the primary scoring option on the Nuggets. Here’s how it broke down. (team rank in parentheses)

  • Carmelo Anthony – 19.7 FGA/G(1) 8.9 FTA/G(1) 56.3% True Shooting Percentage(1)

Melo took the most shots of any Nuggets but guess what? He was the best shooting option on the Nuggets! Being high usage when you are the best option is fine. Let’s make another Nugget comparison. In 2009 here’s how a finally healthy Nene looked. (Team rank in parentheses)

  • Nene – 9.2 FGA/G(5) 4.8 FTA/G(3) 64.5% True Shooting Percentage(1)

When Melo was the best scoring option on the Nuggets what did he do? He took a lot of shots. Now ironically in 2006 Melo was being a team player with this strategy. In 2009 Nene was one of the top five scoring options in the league and what did he do? He took the fifth most shots on his team! Nene was hurting his team.

Being a team player is all about what team you are on. Kobe being the primary option when he was younger and on a weaker team was fine. Now that Kobe is older and has great options to defer to he is being selfish. Perhaps, we can actually say Kobe isn’t the only selfish one and maybe Bynum is to blame as well. Of course, it’s not possible for Bynum or Nene to take more shots in a game unless another player decreases their shots per game. As Jason Kidd has said before “anybody in an NBA uniform” will take the shot if you give it to them. So a better way to put it is that players like Kobe are too selfish and players like Bynum and Nene aren’t selfish enough.

-Dre

Even effective clutch is overrated

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Over at Liberty Ballers, Jordan Sams compiled several tables of data on “clutch” shooting using Basketball Reference’s handy shot finder. Using various different parameters, Sams compared various players with regards to field goal percentage (FG%), three-point percentage (3P%), and the percentage of shots that were assisted. But it was missing something important (and easy to calculate) that Basketball Reference includes in its search results: effective field goal percentage (eFG%).

Effective field goal percentage — also known as adjusted field goal percentage (AdjFG%) — is a field goal percentage that takes into consideration the extra value associated with three-point shots. You can calculate eFG% using the following formula:

eFG%: (field goals made + 0.5*three-pointers made)/field goal attempts

Think of it this way: player A goes 3-6 on two-point shots, scores 6 points, and has a FG% of 50%. But player B goes 2-6 on three point shots, scores 6 points, and has a FG% of 33%. Why the disparity? Both players attempted the same number of shots and scored the same number of points. But eFG% fixes all that:

Player A: (field goals made + 0.5*three-pointers made)/field goal attempts

= (3 + 0)/6
= 0.500

Player B: (field goals made + 0.5*three-pointers made)/field goal attempts

= (2 + 0.5*2)/6
= 0.500

Adding eFG% to Sams’ tables improves our ability to interpret the data he has compiled — and it should change some of the narratives that you take away from the tables. For example, take Sams’ second table (with eFG% added):

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast’d %Ast’d Best Worst eFG%
LeBron 333 714 0.466 74 231 0.320 79 0.237 55% 42% 0.518
Vince 185 420 0.440 42 117 0.359 72 0.389 50% 38% 0.490
R.Allen 151 391 0.386 78 215 0.363 105 0.695 44% 34% 0.486
Roy 166 371 0.447 24 71 0.338 26 0.157 48% 36% 0.480
Dirk 235 541 0.434 34 107 0.318 107 0.455 48% 40% 0.466
CP3 187 430 0.435 23 73 0.315 22 0.118 50% 37% 0.462
Melo 193 447 0.432 23 72 0.319 84 0.435 52% 42% 0.457
Kobe 317 769 0.412 58 185 0.314 69 0.218 46% 39% 0.450
Durant 191 479 0.399 40 123 0.325 103 0.539 47% 35% 0.441
JJ 174 449 0.388 40 114 0.351 47 0.270 46% 32% 0.432
Iggy 158 394 0.401 24 112 0.214 28 0.177 48% 31% 0.431
Wade 205 507 0.404 27 101 0.267 34 0.166 47% 32% 0.431
Pierce 167 430 0.388 32 97 0.33 60 0.359 44% 21% 0.426
Rose 168 401 0.419 4 31 0.129 23 0.137 44% 40% 0.424
Russ 150 403 0.372 13 56 0.232 23 0.153 42% 30% 0.388
Avg. 199 476 0.415 36 114 0.3 59 0.300 47% 35% 0.456

And here are Sams’ comments regarding this table:

When we look at eFG%, some of these observations change. Kobe (45%) remains slightly below average (45.6%), LeBron (51.8%) still has the best percentage, and Russell Westbrook (38.8%) still has the worst percentage. But the comment about Andre Iguodala is no longer true. When we take into consideration the extra value of three-point shots, Ray Allen (48.6%), Kevin Durant (44.1%), and Joe Johnson (43.2%) are all better shooters than Iguodala (43.1%). Most noticeably, Ray Allen moves up from 14th (in FG%) to third (in eFG%) due to his three-point shooting, which is quite a lot.

Instead of copying all of the other tables and posting them in this space with eFG% added in, I’m going to quote Sams’ final observations, and note what changes when we make use of eFG% instead of FG%:

  • The extreme volatility of the average ‘Best season’ and ‘Worst season’ of the players suggest “clutchness” can vary from year-to-year.
  • LeBron ranked ahead of Kobe in 7 of the 8 samples, including all three playoff samples.
  • Indeed, Brandon Roy could cook.
  • LeBron is obviously in a major clutch slump right now, but it happens to every player, because the sample sizes are so small every year. The statistics indicate he will bounce back at some point.
  • If being the “best closer” means “converting shots at a fairly average rate in any and all ‘clutch’ situations since 2000″, Kobe Bryant is clearly the best.
My response:
  • “Clutchness” does indeed vary year-to-year. This is because “clutch” situations make up only a tiny fraction of a player’s time on the court, and crazy things can happen with small sample sizes.
  • When we look at eFG%, LeBron was ahead of Kobe in five of the samples, not seven, although he was still ahead of Kobe in all three playoff samples.
  • Brandon Roy does very well in these tables, but Ray Allen‘s excellent three-point shooting bumps him down a spot in tables two, four, and five. Vince Carter also moves ahead of Roy in the second table.
  • Despite the use of the word “obviously”, LeBron may or may not be in a “clutch slump”; such an assertion would require different data than this. But certainly it can be said that LeBron is a very good player and an efficient shooter, and that small sample sizes can lead us to draw faulty conclusions.
  • Generally, it’s true that Kobe Bryant is a shooter of average efficiency who simply takes a lot of shots to score his points. But when we look at tables four (45.7) and five (42.9), Kobe beats the average (38.7 and 36.4) significantly. So actually — and I hate to write this, because I know it will be misconstrued — Kobe has been significantly better in the clutch since 2006.

It should also be noted that something else is missing from these tables, and that is free-throw data. The addition of free-throw data would probably change how we view even these eFG% numbers, but alas, Basketball Reference does not have this ability as of yet.

Beyond these tables, there is plently more to be said about “clutch” situations. Like many stat-heads, I don’t think there is anything particularly special about the ending of a game. A player could be the most efficient shooter in the league in clutch situations and still be a terrible player, because clutch shots only make up about 4% of their total shots. Likewise, even if LeBron — who is by far the best player in the league this year — is terrible in crunch time, his outstanding play during the rest of the game would far outweigh any crunch time negatives.

- Devin

Clutch is overrated

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Brace yourselves. You can now browse the last ten years of play by play data with ease at Basketball Reference. The first place many have looked was at the very ends of games to find out about clutch. Jeremy and I decided to retell an old story about clutch for the 2010-2011 season with the new data.

Clutch Players shoot more


There’s nothing surprising about this finding. With the game on the line the clutchest players want the ball and increase their shots per minute.

Clutch players shoot worse

Of course when crunch time hits our clutch players have a tendency to shoot worse from the field. In fact, only Monta Ellis and Carmelo Anthony saw an improvement in their effective field goal shooting.

It doesn’t matter


It turns out that players that like to shoot in the clutch also like to shoot during the rest of the game. It also turns out clutch time is a small portion of the game and it doesn’t happen every game. Add up all the clutch shots and it’s only around 4% of the total shots our top clutch shooters take.

Summing up

With an ability to look at clutch data closer it is very tempting to use it examine certain clutch players with a closer lens. And certainly it is also tempting to try and explain clutch time. Our players must be taking riskier shots at a quicker pace. Or maybe the defense really clamps down in clutch. In fact it’s pretty easy to believe that teams will change their strategy in clutch time and equally easy to believe they will not make optimal decisions.

What is important to do though is to temper this with how important it is. LeBron James was not clutch last season and neither was Dwyane Wade (whereas Carmelo Anthony and Monta Ellis were). That didn’t stop the Heat from winning lots of games and making it to the finals. We’re likely to overestimate the odds or importance of an event based on how easy it is to remember. Clutch shots are a great example of this. I’m not saying clutch shots aren’t fun, or memorable or even not important. I’m just saying perhaps we shouldn’t be so quick to define players based on actions that make up less than 5% of their offensive plays.

-Jeremy and Dre

Clutch was defined as any shot taken with two minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime with five points or less between the teams. The top ten “clutchest” players (Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, Monta Ellis, Andre Iguodala, Jason Richardson, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Tyreke Evans) were used and were defined as those that had the most shots in clutch time for the 2010-2011 season.

Jeremy Lin helps teach us about Yay Points, Clutch and Risk

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This season New York has been front and center when it comes to a lot of our basketball posts. With Wages of Wins Favorites Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler (albeit popular by us for opposite reasons) joining forces and up-and-comer phenom Landry Fields teaming up with aging like milk Amare Stoudemire, there were simply too many interesting reasons to avoid the Knicks this season. That’s why it’s surprising that the biggest story this season from the Knicks is none of those players.

The story that has taken the NBA blogosphere by storm is Jeremy Lin. We’ve talked about the draft and how it is perfectly acceptable to say no one could have seen Lin coming. After all most young players — even future greats — don’t play well in their first starts. But what is not acceptable to say is that no team should have realized Lin was worth a look. In a league where mystery box players such as Bargnani get major minutes as young players, it is ridiculous to say the Warriors, Rockets or even Knicks were right in sitting Lin on the bench. However, with Lin now front and center, I am happy to say there are even more great lessons to be learned from this already amazing story.

Lin and Yay Points

Points drive perception in the NBA. Points get you drafted high, paid, voted to All-Star games and even sways voters for major awards. It is true that to win in the NBA you have to outscore the opponent, and this is a matter of points. Of course, missing shots gives the opponent an opportunity to score. As does turning the ball over. In Lin’s first three starts he scored 28, 23 and 38 points while shooting over 60% true shooting. That’s remarkable! In his last two games he’s kept up the 20+ points per game but he had a 33.3% true shooting percentage in the win over Minnesota and 54.3% true shooting percentage in the win over Toronto — also had Lin not scored his last second clutch shot he would have ended the night with a below average 50.3% true shooting percentage. Those marks are terrible and above average respectively. He’s also been racking up the turnovers. Of course, the focus is still on points. Lin shoots amazingly? He’s amazing! Lin shoots terribly? He’s still amazing! Lin shoots above average? Still amazing! People like winners. The Wages of Wins showed the biggest factor in ticket sales is a winning team. However the biggest thing people like to give credit to is scoring. Lin is scoring a lot of points on a currently winning team. Players like Joe Johnson show this is a good way to boost your popularity.

Lin and Clutch

Toronto has been a bad team this season. However, recently they’ve been a great opponent for some spectacular play (perhaps we should rename them the Washington Generals?) Both Kobe and Lin were able to sink last second clutch shots to will their team to a win. Of course, neither Kobe or Lin actually played that well. As I mentioned, Lin needed the clutch shot to get his scoring percentages above average and with 8 turnovers to his 11 assists, it’s not like he was being a great facilitator. Kobe’s game was even worse. He shot 9 for 23 and did little else. Yet at the end of the game, both players were lauded as heroes. The True Hoop blog actually had this to say about Kobe:

Sunday was a day in which Kobe Bryant made like Magic Johnson…

Wait…what? 9-23 shooting with two rebounds and four turnovers is like Magic? This wasn’t an article written by Henry Abbott and thank goodness Abbott did take another look at this game. That said, on the network that has been pounding the Kobe isn’t clutch drum, all it takes is one game against a bad team with a bad performance by a player that gets the game winner to draw comparisons to one of the greatest players ever? Yahoo Sports was similar in their talk of Lin and his game winner in Toronto:

Even after his amazing week, this one took Linsanity to a whole new level.

Again, a game with a below average performance against a bad team somehow takes Lin’s Michael Jordan like start (seriously compare Lin’s third start to Michael Jordan’s third start) to the next level? I enjoy clutch and excitement on Sports Center, but both of these claims are hyperbole to the Nth degree!

Lin and risk

The rise of Lin has brought out a lot of speculation and finger pointing. How could the Warriors cut Lin? (The answer by the way was so they could not sign DeAndre Jordan) How could the Rockets cut Lin? (The answer was to make room for Dalembert and to keep warm bench spots open for Jonny Flynn and Hasheem Thabeet) How could the rest of the league pass on him?

The issue in the NBA is this: playing an unknown player while your team is losing is a risky proposition for coaches. Much like going for it on fourth down in football will draw scrutiny in a loss, so will playing unknown players in front of known players. While everyone scurries to prove that Lin will be the greatest player since MJ or that they could have known he was coming (we’re somewhat guilty of that), there’s a bigger issue. Lin is proof of an inherent flaw in NBA management. Owners refuse to quit because they’ve sunk millions of dollars into players. Coaches refuse to play unknown players because of a risk to their job.

Lin is the very definition of a low-risk high-reward proposition. This season he will make less than $1 million. Compare that to even the most fringe free agent point guard signed in Earl Watson, who will make $2 million a year. Lin’s college numbers also suggested he was worth a look. On a losing team (such as Golden State), such a player should be great; you play him, and if he works out you’re better off. If he fails, then your cap is intact and you can roll the dice again in the draft. Yet the way the NBA management is structured, somehow playing a cheap, undrafted player is seemingly high risk. I say seemingly because, as Arturo has pointed out, if you are on a losing team your only hope of salvation is winning. That’s a problem that I suspect won’t be solved even after all the dust has settled and the finger pointing in regards to Lin has stopped.

Summing up

Let’s just get this out of the way: sample size. I didn’t even need to form a complete sentence around those two words. Lin has started less than ten games. All the narratives we are building stand a very good chance of looking foolish in the future. All I can say is that in all aspects (fun to watch, fun to talk about, fun to analyze the stats) Lin has been a joy for NBA fans. As the NBA is about entertainment that’s really all we can ask for. Regardless of how this plays out in regards to Lin’s career or NBA front office decisions, what we can say is that for two weeks in February Jeremy Lin was the most polarizing person in the NBA, and that in itself is pretty damned impressive.

-Dre