Tag Archives: Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving is not the rookie of the year.

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As always the numbers come via Patrick the NBA Geek (@nbageek) and the fantastic player comparison engine.

I’ve been reading over some Rookie Ratings (such as here and here). The #1 and #2 spots seem are pretty much Kyrie Irving and Ricky Rubio with Irving taking the top spot. The truth is that Irving is turning out to be a very good rookie. Young players tend to be below average. Irving has been playing better than an average NBA player and is in fact a better rookie (thus far) than LeBron James was his first year in the league. The truth though is if we want to be serious about the Rookie of the Year race (through January 31st 2012) there are really only four names that should be considered. I’ll include Irving for good measure though.

#1) Ricky Rubio (and for comparison Kyrie Irving)

Ricky Rubio rookie stats through January 31st 2012 (stats are per 48 minutes)
Stat Ricky Rubio Kyrie Irving Average PG
WP48  0.208   0.152 0.099 
 Wins 3.1   1.7 1.0 
 PTS 15.9   30.3 19.5 
 TS% 50.0%   59.9 52.4% 
 ORB 0.6   1.6 0.9 
 DRB 6.6   5.8 4.9 
 AST 12.3   8.2 8.2 
 TO 4.5  5.6 3.7 
 BLK 0.3   0.8 0.4 
 STL 3.1   1.3 2.0 
 PF 3.3   4.2 3.3 

Irving is a very impressive scorer. While he doesn’t have many weaknesses, the few he does are glaring. His turnovers are very high, especially in regards to the number of assists he gets. He’s also pretty foul prone. Rubio’s scoring has not been that impressive. At a 50% TS clip he’s essentially breaking even every time he takes a shot. That said, his assist rate is off the chart and he’s also remarkably good at stealing the ball while keeping his fouls own. Like Irving his turnovers are a bit high, but given the number of dimes he’s passing out we’ll forgive him.

The Rubio vs. Irving debate comes down to a popularity contest of sorts. Rubio is really good at playmaking and getting the ball. In short, he’s fitting the prototypical PG role to a tee. Irving is really good at scoring, with a few weaknesses many are ok overlooking. When it comes down to it both are good players but Rubio is currently the better of the two. Unfortunately scoring is what the voters notice Irving will likely end the season with more accolades (at least if both players keep their current play up)

#2) Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard rookie stats through January 31st 2012 (stats are per 48 minutes)
Stat Kawhi Leonard Average SF
 WP48  0.212  0.099
 Wins 2.4 0.9
 PTS 14.4 18.8
 TS% 48.6% 51.6%
 ORB 3.7 1.7
 DRB 10.4 7.4
 AST 1.6 3.3
 TO 1.3 2.5
 BLK 0.7 0.8
 STL 2.3 1.6
 PF 2.3 3.5

Did you notice the Spurs were still good? Did you think it was because the trio of Duncan-Parker-Ginobili were still pulling the load? Duncan’s production has fallen off a cliff and Ginobili has been sidelined with injury. One of the key pieces behind the Spurs continued success is Leonard. He’s not that impressive on the scoring front but when it comes to getting the ball his offensive rebound rate is ridiculous and his steal rate is high too. He also is good at not turning the ball over or fouling. Some might describe these as the little things that help teams win. I’ll agree they help teams win but I’ll say they’re pretty big things as Leonard’s WP48 is ridiculously high for a rookie.

#3) Jon Leuer

Jon Leuer rookie stats through January 31st 2012 (stats are per 48 minutes)
Stat Jon Leuer Average PF
 WP48  0.208  0.099
 Wins 1.3 0.9
 PTS 19.6 19.3
 TS% 59.9% 52.5%
 ORB 3.9 3.3
 DRB 10.0 11.2
 AST 2.4 2.4
 TO 1.3 2.6
 BLK 1.8 1.5
 STL 1.0 1.4
 PF 5.3 4.7

Leuer is probably the closest on the list to a complete player. His defensive rebounds are a bit low, but as those are somewhat of a team stat that’s not a huge deal. His fouls are a bit high and his steals are a bit low but neither is that far from the average big. His insane scoring and otherwise complete game have helped the bucks out tremendously. In fact, if the Bucks could find a center and stop playing Stephen Jackson and give more minutes to Leuer they could probably sport a winning record.

#4) Enes Kanter

Enes Kanter rookie stats through January 31st 2012 (stats are per 48 minutes)
Stat Enes Kanter Average C
 WP48  0.179  0.099
 Wins 1.0 0.9
 PTS 16.6 17.5
 TS% 52.0% 53.3%
 ORB 6.8 4.1
 DRB 17.2 13.4
 AST 0.5 2.2
 TO 2.8 2.8
 BLK 1.9 2.0
 STL 0.9 1.3
 PF 4.2 4.8

Kanter is simply insane when it comes to getting rebounds. I’ve heard his scoring game criticized. While it’s true he’s below average in regards to getting points it’s not by that much compared to an average center. Kanter has helped the Jazz keep a formidable front court and I might go so far as to say they may want to consider trading Jefferson to find a way to bolster their backcourt.

Summing up

The rookies that are helping their teams out the most this year are those that do things that help win games. Whether that’s playingmaking (Rubio), getting the ball (Leonard and Kanter) or scoring very well (Leuer and Irving) these players are making a difference on their roster. Of course when it comes down to it scoring points is what tends to get rookies noticed and Irving is winning on that front (Leuer is getting neither the shots or the minutes to compete) I would like to end that thus far we’ve had some very impressive rookies. With three rookies playing like stars, Kanter playing very well and Irving putting up impressive numbers I’d say the current All-Rookie squad would be a formidable starting five for any team. Of course, the season is young still and we should note it is very rare to have a super talented rookie in a single season, let alone multiple. So when the dust settles it may very well turn out that Irving will be the undisputed Rookie of the Year and these other players just had a hot start to the season.

-Dre

How not to compare players starring Kyrie Irving and LeBron James

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Thanks to Patrick (@NBAGeek) spotting this Tweet for Chris Palmer(@ESPNChrisPalmer)

  • Rookie numbers: Kyrie Irving 16.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 3.2 rpg, 49% FG, 40% 3FG; LeBron 20.9/5.5/5.9, 41% FG, 29% 3FG. Pretty close.

When comparing players people like going to the numbers. The issue is that the numbers when used improperly may not be helpful. Let’s examine the issue above. Luckily a few people responded to the Tweet and I get to use them to help!

Per game is an iffy stat. Turns out players play different minutes per game

Two readers spotted this one immediately Imag Shahmiri(@djsweatydank) observed this

Irving also playing way less minutes than LeBron did his rookie year

Coach Benjamin (@Blizyy) also chimed in with:

LeBron also played about 35 mins. Kyrie only gets 25 a game.

Coach B. actually underestimated both players just a bit. So far Kyrie Irving is getting about 27.9 minutes per game. Compare this with LeBron’s rookie season where he got 39.5 minutes per game! So with 40% more playing time LeBron scored 25% more points and this is somehow similar? When comparing two players using per-game can definitely be iffy if you don’t at least acknowledge a difference in minutes per game and also…

Players play different positions in the NBA

Asad Video (@AsadVIDEO) noticed this:

Why are u comparing a PG to a F ?

This is something odd that a lot of stats don’t like to account for (the Wins Produced formula actually does account for it though by the way) In the NBA players play different positions. This means their stat responsibilities are different. Is the fact that Bron and Irving are “close” in assists per game a good thing? In fact most people notice this immediately. When we note say that Gasol has a better shooting percentage than Kobe Bryant the reason (of course) is that Kobe plays on the perimeter and takes harder shots. Now one may question why the big guy close to the hoop doesn’t shoot more. . . but it’s a valid point. Different positions cover different parts of the floor and are expected to do different things. So that brings us to…

An actual comparison

Now I’ll give you that it’s hard to do a lot in a tweet. 140 characters isn’t a lot. Here’s two things you can do though.

1. Go to the NBA Geek’s Comparion Engine. Type in the two players you want (for the same season only or career currently) get the url and paste it into twitter.

2. Go to Basketball Reference’s Player Comparison Finder. Find the players and seasons you want. Copy and paste the url into twitter.

Both of these let people see a lot of analysis quickly and prevent you from killing your Twitter message trying to cram in all the stats you can.

Both of these do per minute analysis so you’re golden. And  if you’re doing a blog post you can more in depth, which I’ll be doing thanks to the NBA Geek’s comparison engine. (Note I made the table by hand, but  the comparison engine does generate some slick ones automatically)

Rookie Bron vs. Rookie Irving comparison (per 48 minute stats unless noted)
Stat Kyrie Irving* Ave. 2012 PG* LeBron James Ave. 2004 SF
 WP48 0.101 0.099 0.080 0.099
 PTS 28.9 19.4  25.4 19.8
 DRB 4.3 3.9  5.1 5.6
 ORB 1.3 0.9  1.5 2.1
 AST 8.5 8.2  7.1 3.5
 TO 6.0 3.7  4.2 2.8
 BLK 0.9 0.3  0.9 0.8
 STL 1.2 1.9  2.0 1.7
 PF 4.4 3.3  2.3 4.0
 2FG% 52% 46.2%  43.8% 45.9%
 3FG% 40.4% 34.6%  29.0% 35.4%
 FT% 82.0% 81.2%  75.4% 77.3%
 TS% 58.2% 52.5%  48.8% 52.3%
 FGA 22.1 16.5  22.9 16.7
 3FGA 4.8 4.7  3.3 3.7
 FTA 6.2 4.4  7.1 5.1
 MPG 27.9 27.0 39.5 21.0
*Numbers through January 26th 2012

It’s a bit of work but when we break apart Irving and Bron’s rookie games there are some similarites. Basically both players took roughly the same number of shots per minute. And it turns out a 2004 SF was actually expected to shoot about as well as a 2012 PG so that comparison is apt. Except when we notice that factoring it to per-minute instead of per game shows up that Irving is an amazing shooter whereas LeBron was a terrible shooter as a rookie.

The other similar stats? Well LeBron being close in assists actually meant Bron was an amazing passer at the SF position whereas Irving is only average as a PG. Rebounds? Other way around, Irving is a good rebounder as a guard, LeBron was a bad rebounder as a forward.

Finally it’s pretty obvious that their shooting percentages were not similar in the slightest. In fact if Irving were getting the minutes LeBron did as a rookie he’d be outscoring LeBron by around four points a game. In fact the end conclusion from all of this to me is.

  • Irving needs to be more careful with the ball (less fouls and turnovers) and
  • Irving needs to play more
  • And Irving needs to shoot more, especially from 3 (see we encourage it!)

Comparing him to LeBron as a rookie is fun given the liklihood they’ll both have the Rookie of the Year hardware on their mantel and both played for Cleveland. If you’re going to do such comparisons though, please do them right.

-Dre