Tag Archives: Landry Fields

What the heck happened to New York?

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The following post gets it’s Wins Produced numbers from the fantastic NBA Geek. Seriously go check out the player comparison engine and I’ll see you in a while. We also have historical Wins Produced back to 2000. Finally any other numbers are from Basketball-Reference.

Last season New York managed to return to the promised land. With two supposed superstars in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire and a giant splash in free agency with Tyson Chandler they were looking poised to be even better this season. It hasn’t quite turned out that way and I thought I’d give New York a closer look.

Chandler, Amare and Melo are all back

It would be easy to fall back on the chemistry myth: putting multiple stars on a team together doesn’t always work. When we look at their production though Melo, Amare and Chandler are all pretty close to where they were last season.

Anthony, Chandler and Stoudemire 2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012
Player 2011 MPG 2011 WP48 2012 MPG 2012 WP48
 Carmelo Anthony 36.2  0.088 35.8 0.207
 Tyson Chandler 27.8  0.268 33.3 0.270
 Amare Stoudemire 36.8  0.039 36.5 0.029

In fact this trio is in fact better than last season. Melo is playing very well right now. Chandler’s production is matching last year’s but he’s playing more minutes per game. Stoudemire is still quite bad and a long way removed from his former self. He’s still close to levels from last season though, so we can’t exactly blame him for a decline.

They forgot the rebounding

Last season Landry Fields was an amazing rookie talent. His production came in two ways. First, he was a very efficient scorer. Second, he was an absolutely beast at rebounding for a guard-forward. This season Field’s points per game have stayed roughly the same as last season. The problem? He’s actually gotten much worse at shooting and is just taking more shots to make up for it. Additionally, Fields is now rebounding half as effectively as he was last season.

The case of the Knicks’ missing rebounds
Player 2011 TS% 2011 ORB-48 2011 DRB-48 2012 TS% 2012 ORB-48 2012 DRB-48
 Landry Fields 0.598  1.5 5.9 0.498  0.6 3.1
 Tyson Chandler 0.697  3.6 8.5 0.806  2.5 4.7

In acquiring Chandler the Knicks were supposed to be getting a premier defender. Part of that includes rebounding. Chandler though is having the lowest rebounding season of his career. Looking at last season the best two players the Knicks have should be Fields and Chandler. We’d expect this to mean they’d grab many boards. That has yet to happen this season.

It’s too soon to tell what is going on with Fields. It’s entirely possible that the addition of Chandler has convinced him to lay off rebounds. Players tend to know scoring gets you paid and on a team with Amare and Melo (and Douglas, who is putting up 15 shots a game) it is hard to get touches. Fields’ new strategy may very well be to just shoot as often as possible and hope the extra points boost his value. (this is the last year on his contract)

They don’t have a point guard

New York Knicks point guards past and present
Player Season MPG WP48
Toney Douglas 2011-2012 33.8 -0.008
Baron Davis 2010-2011 25.3 0.068
Chauncey Billups 2010-2011 32.1 0.158
Raymond Felton 2010-2011 36.5 0.121

Last season the Knicks started the season off by acquiring Raymond Felton. Felton proceeded to play very well for the Knicks. The Knicks then decided to trade Felton with other pieces for Carmelo Anthony. Luckily they acquired another good point guard in Chauncey Billups in return. In order to get Chandler they released Chauncey Billups. To rectify this they signed Baron Davis off of waivers. Davis has been injured. As such the Knicks have played Toney Douglas as their starter. Douglas has proceeded to take many shots and make very few of them to go along with very few assists. The end result is the Knicks have an absolutely terrible player at the point. This is employing a similar strategy the Lakers have in recent years with Derek Fisher. Unfortunately Melo and Amare are not quite the players Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are.

Still hope?

Landry Fields is young. It’s hard to know if he’ll revert to form or if he’s changed his game for the worse. The plus side is that in theory some of his production from last year can come back. Additionally it seems unlikely that Chandler’s rebounding will stay so low. In that regard the Knicks have hope they’ll get more wins.

The bigger problem the Knicks have is weakness in their point guards and big men outside of Tyson Chandler. While I’m hopeful, it’s unlikely Amare will revert to his 2008 form. Their other options are two rookies in Josh Harrellson and Jerome Jordan or two veterans in Steve Novak and Jared Jeffries who have never been that productive. At the point guard they are hoping that an aged and injured Baron Davis will come back and be productive or that an injured rookie Iman Shumpert will be productive or that Toney Douglas will stop being awful. I wouldn’t hold my breath on any of those players.

If Fields reverts to his 2011 form and Melo keeps up his career production (two big ifs) then the Knicks will be very good at three positions (SG, SF, and C). Unfortunately they will still be quite bad at two of the other positions. In the east though that should still be enough to keep them competitive.

If that doesn’t happen though then the Knicks decline will largely be a result of “losing” Landry Fields, Ray Felton and Chauncey Billups and keeping Amare. Of course, when all is said and done it is likely that other targets will be blamed and the same problems may repeat themselves in New York.

-Dre

How Carmelo and Amare may con the voters for another year.

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The following comes from the very talented James Brocato (@jbrocato23) of Shut Up and Jam. James’ fandon originates with the Seattle Supersonics. As he is waiting for their return to Seattle he gladly decided to hop in and shed some light on the New York Knicks using a combination of advanced basketball stats including the new and improved Wins Produced!

Struggles for Amar’e and Carmelo

Last season, New York made two big name, big money acquisitions. Unfortunately for the Knicks, money won’t buy wins if it’s not well spent. And after last season, Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire both made the overrated list at the Wages of Wins. Also, Amare was one of the fifteen most overpaid players in the league. In fact, the number of all star game appearances Anthony and Stoudemire have racked up together is higher than the number of wins they combined to produce last season. Despite putting up big numbers in everyone’s favorite category, both of these players struggle with creating and maintaining possessions for their team. Of particular concern is each player’s steal to turnover ratio. Last season, Carmelo’s was 0.33, just over half of the 0.62 league average for small forwards. Amare’s 0.28 was not much more than half of the 0.51 that the average power forward achieved. While turning the ball over as much as Amare and Carmelo do may be partly attributable to the volume with which each is expected to handle the ball, great players who turn the ball over at high rates make up for it in other categories. Amare and Carmelo don’t. Let’s take a look at their stat lines:

Per 48 Minute Stats
Player eFG% ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV PF S:T Net Poss. WP48
Carmelo Anthony 0.487 2.06 7.76 3.86 1.19 0.80 3.59 3.91 0.33 7.42 0.088
Average SF 0.500 1.54 5.60 3.44 1.48 0.81 2.38 3.60 0.62 6.00 0.100
Per 48 Minute Stats
Player eFG% ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV PF S:T Net Poss. WP48
Amare Stoudemire 0.505 3.31 7.33 3.38 1.19 2.51 4.18 4.58 0.28 7.64 0.060
Average PF 0.508 2.58 7.47 2.52 1.14 1.22 2.24 4.36 0.51 8.96 0.100

In addition to being turning the ball over at high rates, both Amare and Carmelo are below average with respect to effective field goal percentage. Not exactly what you’d expect from the league’s most versatile scorer, as many like to crown Carmelo. 

The Real Big Two in New York

Luckily for Carmelo and Amare, they have had a lot of great players on their teams in the past, which has helped to mask their mediocrity. And more luckily for them, this trend will likely continue because the Knicks signed Tyson Chandler. Now the Knicks have two WP stars under 30, Chandler and Landry Fields, who each produced more wins last season than Anthony and Stoudemire combined. Let’s take a look at the stat lines of Chandler and Fields:

Per 48 Minute Stats
Player eFG% ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV PF S:T Net Poss. WP48
Landry Fields 0.568 1.98 7.86 2.93 1.51 0.32 2.02 2.15 0.75 9.33 0.237
Average SG 0.496 1.08 4.44 4.13 1.51 0.42 2.52 3.45 0.60 4.51 0.100
Per 48 Minute Stats
Player eFG% ORB DRB AST STL BLK TOV PF S:T Net Poss. WP48
Tyson Chandler 0.654 4.80 11.33 0.75 0.84 1.86 2.05 5.59 0.41 14.92 0.268
Average C 0.510 4.10 8.68 2.42 1.18 2.03 2.65 5.40 0.44 11.31 0.100

As you can see, both Fields and Chandler excel in two areas where Anthony and Stoudemire struggle: shooting efficiently and taking care of the basketball. Indeed, Fields had the 4th highest effective field goal percentage among all shooting guards and Chandler had the 2nd highest among all centers that played at least 1,000 minutes last season. As a side note, Stoudemire has excelled in shooting efficiency in the past, and was actually above average with respect to WP48 in his early to mid twenties, but his production dropped off substantially at 26, and he has been consistently around or below average since. Carmelo, on the other hand, has been extremely consistent across his career, and has never been above average with respect to WP48.

Will the Addition of Chandler be Enough?

Of course the addition of Chandler means the Knicks now will have a “big three” of their own in Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler, in that order. Or at least that what they will say. But will the addition of Chandler give the other two enough of a boost to compete in the East? Let’s take a look:

Estimated Knicks Production in 2011-2012
Player Projected Minutes* WP48 Wins
 Tyson Chandler 2000 0.268 11.2
 Landry Fields 1800 0.237 8.9
 Carmelo Anthony 2400 0.088 4.4
 Toney Douglas 1250 0.116 3.0
 Mike Bibby 1250 0.085 2.2
 Baron Davis 1500 0.068 2.1
 Amare Stoudemire 2100 0.039 1.7
 Jared Jeffries 900 0.068 1.3
 Bill Walker 650 0.073 1.0
 Iman Shumpert 900 0.050 0.9
 Renaldo Balkman 440 0.006 0.1
 Josh Harrellson 650 0.002 0.0
 Total 36.8 

Remember, the season is only 66 games, so 37 wins is the equivalent of about 46 wins in a full length season. And 46 wins is an improvement over last year. In fact, the Knicks have a good shot of making it past the first round of the playoffs with this team. But, why would the addition of Chandler, a great player, only provide the Knicks with a relatively minor improvement? It’s simple, the Knicks no longer have a great point guard, which they were lucky enough to have all of last year with Raymond Felton, then Chauncey Billups. Instead, they will depend on savvy but below-average-because-of-old-age veterans Baron Davis and Mike Bibby to run the point. Accordingly, if the Knicks hadn’t signed Chandler and instead signed someone like David West, or worse, Glen Davis, the positive perception of Carmelo and Amare might have taken a huge hit. Of course, the media probably would have blamed lack of chemistry and coaching and the supporting cast and whatever else they could think of that might protect their belief that points per game is far and away the most important statistic in basketball. The truth is that the draft and the lockout have helped the Knicks luck into some wins. Here’s hoping they realize where their real production is coming from or the Isiah Knick days may repeat themselves.

-James

Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Draft Round 4

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.

Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. In case you missed it you can find the first two rounds here: Round 1 and Round 2. With that let’s get on to the next round!

Round 4

1) With the 19th pick Devin selects Kevin Garnett

My second pick is Kevin Garnett (that sound you just heard? Arturo). Like Odom, Garnett is very flexible. defensively, he can cover every position. Offensively, Garnett can even handle the ball if he has to; I distinctly remember him bringing the ball up the court on a regular basis when he played in Minnesota. And while Garnett can’t shoot the three, he certainly has some range (check out his Hoopdata splits).

2) With the 20th pick Ben selects Kobe Bryant

Because I am devaluing Wins Produced numbers because I believe 3-on-3 basketball is fundamentally different from NBA basketball, I’m going to pick a player that WP proponents typically run away from: Kobe Bryant. As wildly overrated as Kobe is, he’s still among the most potent offensive options on the perimeter. And in a structure where help defense will be mostly non-existent, I’ll take Kobe as my fourth many any day.

3) With the 21st pick Arturo selects Jason Kidd

You know that old guy in your pickup court who knows every dirty trick in the book, fouls you on every play yet never gets called for anything, gets all the cheap rebounds and makes you pay for leaving him open from long range? Jason Kidd is that guy.

4) With the 22nd pick Patrick selects Landry Fields

I’ll take Landry Fields.  More rebounding, height, solid defense, and he’s my worst 3pt shot at .390 lol. He’ll be a great sub for Dunleavey when I need more toughness.

5) With the 23rd pick James selects Andrei Kirilenko

With my final pick, I’m going to go with Andrei Kirilenko. He’s a quick, long, aggressive defender, able to defend virtually every position. He is also a very good three point shooter. With Kirilenko, I can go with a number of different lineups, and I believe I have the personnel to match up with just about any team and create nightmare matchups for opposing defenses.

6) With the 24th pick Greg selects Stephen Curry

Okey dokey, here goes he final pick of the draft: Steph Curry. In a
draft where Ray Allen went in the top 12, it seems that Curry should
be in the top 24; he can do at least everything Ray can do, and pass a
bit better besides. Curry gives me the flexibility to shift between a
3-pt (2-pt) lineup of Curry, Ginobili, Love and a slashing lineup of
Ginobili, Smith, Love. To my mind, Curry is about the best long-range
shooter around, though he does give me another mediocre defender. I
think in a 3-on-3 league, the 2-pt. lineup would difficult to stop
with Curry and Love running the pick-n-pop or pick-n-roll, but would
need good defense from Manu and Josh Smith in order to supplement
Curry and Love.

We had a ton of fun with this and we may have a few more posts coming on the subject! Any surprises or bets on which team wins?

-Dre