Tag Archives: Pau Gasol

Are the Lakers still contenders?

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The Lakers were blocked on a trade to send them the best player in the league. A backlash from this move was that they lost their second best player for nothing. Now it seems Kobe’s marriage is falling apart and he is also dealing with injuries. The Lakers appear to be in a free fall while another team in Los Angeles looks poised to take the division.

Ty over at Courtside Analyst already did some work on the Odomless Lakers. The good news is Ty projected the Lakers could win 40 games — the equivalent of 50 games in an 82 game season –(Editor’s note: Thanks Mettaworldpeace for the catch!). Ty had a few restrictions on what the Lakers would need to be a 50 win team. Here are the ones that stood out to me.

  1. Health: The Lakers have some great talent. Injuries could hurt it. The Lakers will need Bynum, Kobe, Barnes, McRoberts and Murphy healthy.
  2. Age: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace and Troy Murphy are all over 30. The Lakers will need all of them to avoid the age like milk virus that snaps up so many old players.

Ty projected the Lakers as a 50 win team. None of the last 10 teams that took the finals won fewer than 52 games (and we may argue the 2006 Miami Heat had a little help from the refs). How is it that we think the Lakers can still compete? The answer is the underrated former Pacers and a bit of luck. Here is how the Lakers depth chart using the players best season from the last two years looks. (ordered by skill of player, not neccesarily who will play the most minutes currently looks)

Lakers Depth Charts by Skill (Using last two seasons)

Lakers Point Guard Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2010 Steve Blake LA Clippers-Portland 2159 0.125 5.6
2010 Derek Fisher LA Lakers 2227 0.053 2.5
Lakers Shooting Guard Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2011 Kobe Bryant LA Lakers 2779 0.128 7.4
2011 Jason Kapono Philadelphia 111 -0.115 -0.3
Lakers Small Forward Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2010 Matt Barnes Orlando 2097 0.185 8.1
2010 Metta World Peace LA Lakers 2605 0.117 6.4
2011 Devin Ebanks LA Lakers 118 0.114 0.3
2010 Luke Walton LA Lakers 272 0.047 0.3
Lakers Power Forward Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2011 Pau Gasol LA Lakers 3037 0.234 14.8
2011 Josh McRoberts Indiana 1597 0.191 6.3
2011 Derrick Caracter LA Lakers 215 -0.057 -0.3
Lakers Center Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
 2011 Andrew Bynum LA. Lakers 1500 0.281 8.8
 2010 Troy Murphy Indiana 2344 0.212 10.4

Luck is needed at the point

At point guard the best the Lakers could hope for is an average performance from Steve Blake and he has declined since 2010. Derek Fisher is done. The Lakers have picked up two rookie point guards. The Lakers are hoping that their old average/below average point guards don’t fall off a cliff or that a rookie steps up. I would not be optimistic about either.

Kobe is really important

It feels weird to say that. Kobe’s production has declined with age. He is still a good player but he is not a great player. However behind him is a terrible Jason Kapono. The Lakers are already spotting teams one position with such a weak selection of point guard. No Kobe means virtually no backcourt.

The Lakers need health, age and no Walton at the small forward

Matt Barnes is quite a good player but had some injury problems last season. World Peace has been average but is declining. The Lakers need Barnes to be healthy or Peace to hold on. Of course if Barnes isn’t healthy and the Lakers rely on Peace it will mean they are average/below average at three positions and that’s if Kobe is healthy and Blake or a rookie plays decently.

Can some combination of Bynum, McRoberts and Murphy replace Odom?

Bynum has never hit 2000 minutes but has played great. Murphy was a top talent a mere two seasons ago. McRoberts played well last season. If some combination of these three players can stay healthy and be productive the Lakers can not only replace Odom’s 10 wins from last season, they may even improve!

Pau Gasol is really important

Pau Gasol has been the best player on the current Lakers that made it to three consecutive title games. He’s really good. He needs to stay healthy, avoid old age and definitely avoid an Odom like situation is the Lakers have any hope of contending.

Summing up

What is boils down to is the Lakers are crossing their fingers that the stars align on every one of their positions. They have a potentially killer front court, a decent set of wings and are still empty at the point guard. That said, it’s entirely possible the Lakers could be contenders this season but it will take a lot of luck.

-Dre

The NBA does what’s best for the Lakers but not best for the league

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The news that absolutely consumed my twitter feed today was the news that Chris Paul was going to be traded to Los Angeles for Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Apparently the NBA owners did not think this was a good idea, because rumours have it that the decision was made to veto such a deal (the NBA owns the Hornets). Wages of Wins analyst Devin Dignam made the point that, instead of helping out the other NBA owners, vetoing the trade would actually help the Lakers.

The Lakers dodge a bullet

Player Age Minutes WP48 Wins Produced
Chris Paul 25 2865 0.358 21.4
Pau Gasol 30 3037 0.258 16.3
Lamar Odom 31 2639 0.260 14.3

While Chris Paul is undoubtedly the best player involved, this trade has some problems with it. Gasol and Odom were responsible for 30 of the Laker’s wins last season, so despite Paul’s individual greatness, the proposed trade would still leave LA at a deficit. A bigger problem is that Pau and Odom are great bigs. These players are rare in the NBA. Letting go of both of these players for Chris Paul means that the Lakers would have to replace their bigs.

While it’s possible the Lakers might be able to make more moves to get some replacement bigs, the simple fact is they are trading two great players for one great player. Sure he’s younger and more talented, but the trade actually harms the Lakers. As Chris Paul’s contract expires in a year, a better idea might be to amnesty Kobe, sign Paul and enjoy several years of Paul, Gasol and Odom.

The league shoots itself in the foot

The move was just as confusing from the NBA’s perspective. The NBA has been worried about placating small market teams. Ironically, in this case, placating the small market owners actually hurts small market teams! If the trade had gone through, the Lakers would have ended up winning fewer games, and that would have given the other teams in the league a better chance of winning a championship. If the other owners wanted to screw over the Lakers, the best thing to do would have been to let the Lakers do it to themselves.

But there are more confusing aspects to this blocked trade. The lockout was allegedly a result of losing money. If the NBA wants to make more money, one of the best ways is to get a star in a big market. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson are credited with revitalizing the league in the 80s. Putting two stars in two big markets helped revitalize the league? Shocking! Some of the NBA’s best years were with Michael Jordan. Guess what that was? Are we really convinced that having Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett (sorry E.J and Patrick!) in small markets during the 2000s was good for the league? Getting Chris Paul in LA would’ve been great for the NBA.

And even if we buy the competitive balance argument, the NBA blocking this move is bad. If every team wants a chance at being a competitor, then every team needs chances to get players. If player movement is restricted, then so are the odds that any given team can compete. The NBA owners are all upset they didn’t get Chris Paul. They would rather have him in New Orleans — which gives them a chance to trade or sign for him — than in Los Angeles, where he’ll flourish. This kind of thinking doesn’t help competitive balance, it doesn’t help the players, and it doesn’t help the fans. In fact, all it does is prove that the owners have no idea what they’re doing. I guess it’s a good thing they’re not in charge of the league’s major decisions.

-Dre

Wages of Wins Podcast: Devin Dignam about Eurobasket 2011 and the Draft

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The Podcast

You can find the show here Wages of Wins Podcast – Devin Dignam International Talk

The Crew

Devin Dignam from NBeh? (Toronto Raptors blog)

Dre Alvarez (@NerdNumbers)

Show Notes

  • More international visitors in large part thanks to Devin’s recent Eurobasket 2011 posts including
  • Devin agrees with my point from the Valley of the Suns Podcast – Advanced Stats in the NBA may be cracked and improving Draft and International scouting is the next big leap.
  • Devin points out a lot of international ball is tournaments, which falls victim to small sample size (which almost altered this article)
  • Devin is happy with the Raptors international pick Jonas Valanciunas
  • The one and done rule has stopped team from taking hot high school prospects with the top 3 picks and Andrea Bargnani may have stopped teams from taking top international picks with the top 3 picks.
  • Devin throws a low blow to a Nuggets fan by bringing up Nikoloz Tskitishvili
  • Dre points out that despite the lack of international picks in the top 3 has slowed but they are still prominent in the lottery.
  • Dre and Devin agree Ricky Rubio will not likely help out the Timberwolves.
  • In spite of our bashing Andrea Bargnani and Ricky Rubio both played well in Eurobasket 2011
  • Dre says you shouldn’t overreact to tournament/playoff performance. In contrast Mosi Platt’s brother thinks Pau Gasol should be traded from the Lakers for a bad series this year.
  • When given the choice between a top NCAA pick or a good looking “mystery box” international pick Devin says he’ll stick with the NCAA player until around pick 20.
  • Interestingly enough San Antonio owns the rights to many players that played well in Eurobasket 2011
  • Did Utah have a dislike of potentially talented international players?
  • Devin points out that in the Fiba U19 and Eurobasket that awards were given using the Yay Points! method.
P.S. I know some of the RSS feed etc. is not being updated. I’m looking at changing how I produce the podcasts. I’m looking at some various other software. If anyone has good recommendations for the best way to produce a podcast on the Mac please let me know.

The “Top Performers” of Eurobasket 2011

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Something that FIBA Europe did for each game during the Eurobasket was to assign a “top performer” from each team. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at these players and see if I could spot any trends in how they were determined.

Take a look at the following graph:

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Almost three quarters of the players who were designated as “top performers” by FIBA Europe led their team in Win Score, whereas only about two thirds led their team in points scored, and even fewer “top performers” led their team in Estimated Wins Produced. For interest’s sake, I also took a quick look at rebounding to get a better feel for the other categories. As you can see, rebounding is not nearly as important in determining the “top performer” as the other three statistics.

What does it mean? It means that people are starting to realize that there’s more to productivity than just scoring. If FIBA Europe valued scoring more than overall productivity, “top performers” would have led their team in points more often than in Win Score. But the opposite is the case.

We can also look at the data another way:

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Here we see the more complicated breakdown. One third of all “top performers”  led their team in Win Score, Estimated Wins, and points. About one quarter of “top performers” led their team in Win Score and Estimated Wins, but not points. Fourteen percent of “top performers” led their teams in points, but not Win Score or Estimated Wins. Thirteen percent led their teams in Win Score and points; six percent led their team in none of the three categories, as well as both Estimated Wins and points; four percent led their teams in only Win Score; and not a single “top performer” led his team solely in Estimated Wins.

Why is Win Score a better indicator of a “top performer” than Estimated Wins? To make a long story short: Win Score is a more obvious outcome than Estimated Wins. Estimated Wins are calculated on a game-by-game basis, using the average Position Adjusted Win Score per minute (PAWSmin). In some cases, this means that players with high Win Scores see their Estimated Wins suffer, because their counterpart opponents also played well. Similarly, in some cases players with lower Win Scores end up with higher Estimated Wins because their counterpart opponents played poorly. This makes total sense, by the way – in a game where every point guard is going nuts, the most productive point guard really has to outdo everyone to make a difference. In the same vein, in a game where every point guard is playing poorly, it doesn’t take much to be considered a very productive point guard.

So again we must ask the question: why, if FIBA Europe is generally more impressed by Win Score over points, did they award Juan Carlos Navarro the MVP over Pau Gasol? For starters, FIBA isn’t perfect. For example, about six percent of the “top performers” didn’t lead their teams in Win Score, Estimated Wins, or points. Second of all, the player with the highest Win Score still failed to be awarded the “top performer” honour one out of every four times.

Even still…I’m not going to let this one go: Pau Gasol was robbed.

- Devin

Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

The Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.
Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. With that let’s run down the first round of picks.

Round 1

1) With the first pick Greg selects Kevin Love:

The differences between the 5-on-5 game and the 3-on-3 game
necessitate certain adjustments in player evaluation. Players whose
primary strength is attacking the basket are slightly less valuable in
ahalf-court game with no referees. Players with good long-range
jumpshots, good passing skills, and high basketball IQ are somewhat
more important in the 3-man game. K-Love gets checkmarks in each of
the above three areas, and is the best rebounder available in 3-on-3,
5-on-5, or any other permutation. The only downside to the pick is
that it leaves my team with relatively weak interior defense. -Greg

2) With the 2nd pick James selects LeBron James:

Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that LeBron is the best all-around player in the NBA. He can score (yes, he’s even a decent 3 shooter), rebound, pass, and defend with the best of them. He’s nearly impossible to guard, which makes him super valuable to a 3v3 team. He can get the basket practically at will, and if he doesn’t like his chances at the shot, he can find his teammate on the wing over the open 3 when the defenders collapse on him. If he decides not to drive, and to shoot the 3, I still like his chances. His ability to defend the wing and the post would also prove to be very valuable in a 3 on 3 game. -James

3) With the 3rd pick Patrick selects Kevin Durant:

When playing by 2s and 3s, Wade or Howard would clearly be the best choice her, but Durant is a beast in a game by 1s and 2s because he shoots so well from 3 and so efficiently when he drives.  I’m actually thrilled with this pick as I believe he’s the #1 pick in this format. -Patrick

4) With the 4th pick Arturo selects Dwight Howard:

Rough choice here for me and I’m torn. Best big or best small? I believe someone said something about a short supply of tall people. My pick is Dwight Howard. The defense, interior presence on offense, defense and the boards we all know about but I think the fact that it’s street ball pushes it over the top for me. Lots of no calls on fouls and lots of ridiculous blocks that would have been goaltends in an NBA game. I could see some two pointers getting blocked. Totally happy with this pick. -Arturo

5) With the 5th pick Ben selects Chris Paul

He’s a fantastic ball handler, excellent at breaking down defenses off the dribble, fantastic distributor, and pesky defender. With little-to-no help defense in a 3-on-3 setting, Chris Paul will have a field day. -Ben

6) With the 6th pick Devin selects Pau Gasol

I’m going to start with my big man – Pau Gasol. Other than Howard, he’s the best all-round big for this format. He can shoot from almost everywhere (don’t believe me? Check out his Eurobasket stats – 7/11 threes in 10 games), can rebound, pass, defend reasonably well. I have him ahead of Love because of his defense and basketball IQ. -Devin

Any surprise omissions? Also to clarify the rules this is a 3 on 3 tournament played half court, counted by 1 and 2 and the players honorably calling their own fouls.

-Dre