Tag Archives: Pau Gasol

Should the Lakers part ways with Pau Gasol?

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With the “disappointing” — and by disappointing, I mean completely predictable — end to the Lakers season, there’s a question: Do the Lakers need to break up Pau and Kobe? Such a thought brings up memories of the original Shaq and Kobe split. While this blog may have a slightly negative Kobe tone, we did side with Kobe in 2004. If you dust off your copy of Wages of Wins, you can reminded of the following facts:

  • Kobe and Shaq were both very good players
  • Their last season together Kobe was close to overtaking Shaq’s production
  • Much of this had to do with the fact the Shaq had gotten old
  • Additionally Shaq had a market value of near $20 million a season

Now, here’s the interesting part about Shaq’s last season on the Lakers, he was 31 years old! This is now true of Pau Gasol! Let’s take a quick examination of Pau’s career, using the numbers from the NBA Geek:

Season Team Games Minutes WP48 Wins Produced
2001-2002 Memphis 82 3007 0.214 13.4
2002-2003 Memphis 82 2948 0.122 7.5
2003-2004 Memphis 78 2458 0.129 6.6
2004-2005 Memphis 56 1790 0.185 6.9
2005-2006 Memphis 80 3135 0.184 12.0
2006-2007 Memphis 59 2133 0.167 7.4
2007-2008 Memphis-L.A. Lakers 66 2351 0.159 7.8
2008-2009 L.A. Lakers 81 2999 0.234 14.6
2009-2010 L.A. Lakers 65 2403 0.264 13.2
2010-2011 L.A. Lakers 82 3041 0.265 16.8
2011-2012 L.A. Lakers 65 2430 0.142 7.2

Pau put up some of his best seasons when the Lakers made their trips to the finals. He in fact hit his top season two seasons ago. It’s possible playing with Kobe helped this. Another theory from Stumbling on Wins is that playing under the Zen-Master Phil Jackson was a key component. That said, Pau will be 32 next season, the age when most players start to fall apart. He has two seasons left on his contract worth almost $40 million. Worse still, he showed the starting signs of decline this season.

Now simply dumping Pau’s contract is not advisable. He’s still a good big and there is value there. However, if a good trade comes along for him, they should definitely take it. The second part of this though is if this is Pau vs. Kobe. It’s not. Kobe’s contract is even worse and every single thing that applies to Pau is even worse for Kobe. Kobe may still have trade value but his contract means the Lakers would need to take nearly $30 million in contracts back. It is unlikely any team with $30 million in good contracts wants to spend them on Kobe. The suggestion here is one Patrick Minton has had for a while: Amnesty Kobe! Some team will pick up some of the salary, and it will free up tons of cap space and also save some on the cap hit the Lakers currently incur.

Here is my advice for the Lakers

  • Trade Pau if there is a decent option
  • Amnesty Kobe
  • Pick up Bynum’s option
  • Don’t make any other dumb signings like Steve Blake, Metta World Peace or Derek Fisher

This could leave the Lakers in a decent spot going forward. Of course, doing this would mean admitting that when it comes to Pau vs. Kobe the real answer is neither!

-Dre

The Kobe effect

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Editor’s Note: The following comes courtesy of Chris Yeh (@chrisyeh) from Adventures in Capitalism. You may recall him as a guest podcast we had a few week back. Chris’ insights were great but the audio quality was iffy. I notice Chris is now pitching an improved podcast app, coincidence? Chris is a Lakers fan and a Kobe fan (unlike some editors still bitter over the 2009 playoffs) and wanted to offer up his take on the Lakers performance in the absence of Kobe. Enjoy!

It just so happens that we have a very interesting experiment going on right now.

From March 23 to April 7, the Lakers used a starting lineup of Sessions-Bryant-World Peace-Gasol-Bynum.  They went 6-3.  Thanks to the handy-dandy “Game Splits” feature of NerdNumbers.com, we can check out how the Lakers were winning:

Los Angeles Lakers from March 23rd to April 7th 2012
Player Pos G MP WP48 WP
Ramon Sessions 1.1 10 329.9 0.193 1.33
Pau Gasol 4.3 10 372.9 0.113 0.87
Metta World Peace 3.0 10 303.9 0.114 0.72
Matt Barnes 2.7 10 267.5 0.095 0.53
Andrew Bynum 5.0 9 294.6 0.065 0.40
Josh McRoberts 4.1 10 192.7 0.077 0.31
Kobe Bryant 2.0 9 337.3 0.007 0.05
Andrew Goudelock 1.5 4 1.5 -0.155 -0.00
Darius Morris 1.0 4 1.5 -0.546 -0.02
Troy Murphy 4.5 9 85.5 -0.015 -0.03
Devin Ebanks 2.0 4 32.2 -0.064 -0.04
Steve Blake 1.0 10 180.4 -0.011 -0.04

Starting April 8, Kobe Bryant started sitting out games.  If you asked me on April 8 how things might go without Bryant, I would have theorized that Gasol and Bynum would get more touches and play better.  Let’s see what happened.

Los Angeles Lakers from April 8th to April 18th 2012
Player Pos G MP WP48 WP
Matt Barnes 2.4 6 164.4 0.501 1.72
Metta World Peace 3.0 6 223.4 0.147 0.69
Pau Gasol 4.2 6 228.6 0.090 0.43
Ramon Sessions 1.3 6 189.6 0.104 0.41
Andrew Bynum 5.0 6 216.0 0.079 0.36
Josh McRoberts 4.0 6 87.2 0.091 0.17
Devin Ebanks 2.0 6 145.0 0.028 0.08
Jordan Hill 4.5 3 6.2 0.609 0.08
Steve Blake 1.0 6 145.0 -0.002 -0.01
Andrew Goudelock 1.5 3 4.3 -0.240 -0.02
Troy Murphy 4.5 6 47.3 -0.117 -0.11
Darius Morris 1.0 4 8.0 -1.166 -0.19

As always, small sample sizes demand that we take the results with a grain of salt.  But, some interesting things stand out:

1)      Gasol, Bynum, and Sessions have played notably worse without Bryant in the lineup. (Editor’s Note: I included the 4-18 Lakers game against the Golden State Tanks. We’ll notice that in a small sample size one game brought Bynum up to his Kobe levels, which as of late have been bad.)

2)      World Peace and Barnes played notably better without Bryant in the lineup.   In fact, Barnes went from average to LeBron over the course of those 6 games, while World Peace has been an above average player while starting with Sessions (after being below average—WP48 0.040—in his first 46 games)

3)      Because Bryant wasn’t playing well before his injury, they’ve actually gotten more production out of Ebanks than Bryant

Prior to this year, Bryant has always been an above-average to great player (though not a superstar certainly).  This year, he has been well below average.  Logically, the Lakers would be far better off if Bryant shot less and deferred to Bynum and Gasol.  Yet without Bryant in the lineup, the performance of the Lakers twin towers of Gasol and Bynum has been truly abysmal (though thanks to the power of raw numbers, most NBA commentators have praised Gasol and Bynum for “stepping up” in the absence of the team’s “superstar”).  Only an insanely hot stretch by Matt Barnes has kept the Bryant-less Lakers afloat.  It may be that Kobe’s (somewhat irrational) reputation with his fellow NBA players enables him to serve as a powerful decoy to free up his big men, even when his poor shooting has made him a below-average player.  That being said, I suspect that the decoy effect would still have its positive effects even if he cut down his league-leading usage rate.

Perhaps Kobe’s injury is a blessing in disguise for the Lakers.  If Kobe returns and moderates his shooting, but still serves his role as “closer” (read: decoy), the Lakers can play at maximum efficiency and do more damage in the playoffs, resulting in Matt Barnes hoisting the trophy for his Finals MVP award — joking … sort of.

-Chris

Editor’s Note: p.s. Mr. PL (@pl_2002) has asked me about this several times on twitter. Asking me to post on it would be akin to me having to compliment George Karl’s coaching. Luckily Chris was nice enough to be able to address the subject. Happy?

Why calling Kobe an MVP candidate is insane

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Michael Penn recently asked us to do a post on Kobe’s out of control shooting. After almost losing to a terrible Golden State Warriors team, the timing seemed appropriate. The simple fact is that Kobe is having a terrible season. Let’s take a quick look at how the Lakers have been doing:

WP48 calculates the Wins per 48 minutes a player earns. 0.100 is average. PoP/G calculates the number of Points over Par a player generates for their team in a game. 0.0 is average.

Player Pos G MP WP48 WP PoP/48 PoP/G
Andrew Bynum 5.0 46 1644.2 0.232 7.94 4.1 3.1
Pau Gasol 4.2 50 1859.3 0.186 7.22 2.7 2.1
Matt Barnes 3.0 48 1042.2 0.226 4.91 4.0 1.8
Kobe Bryant 2.0 50 1927.6 0.059 2.37 -1.2 -1.0
Derek Fisher 1.0 43 1100.9 0.064 1.46 -1.1 -0.6
Metta World Peace 3.1 49 1242.8 0.048 1.23 -1.6 -0.8
Josh McRoberts 4.1 35 438.9 0.133 1.22 1.1 0.3
Ramon Sessions 1.1 7 201.1 0.273 1.14 5.4 3.2
Troy Murphy 4.5 47 797.5 0.061 1.02 -1.2 -0.4
Steve Blake 1.0 37 882.4 0.045 0.83 -1.7 -0.8
Luke Walton 3.2 12 64.6 0.188 0.25 2.8 0.3
Devin Ebanks 2.6 19 154.8 0.075 0.24 -0.8 -0.1
Darius Morris 1.1 16 136.1 0.014 0.04 -2.6 -0.5
Jordan Hill 4.5 3 3.2 0.429 0.03 10.3 0.2
Jason Kapono 2.5 28 269.1 -0.000 -0.00 -3.1 -0.6
Andrew Goudelock 1.6 39 385.3 -0.095 -0.76 -6.0 -1.2
TOTAL 50 12150 0.115 29.16 2.5 2.5

We see the Lakers are similar to the Clippers and Suns. They have three very good players and not much else. The trade for Ramon Sessions is paying off very well. However, I can’t imagine he’ll keep playing at his current levels.

The Lakers have a very potent front court and very little in the backcourt. Recently, I discussed how any team going after Derek Fisher was crazy. The Lakers finally giving up on his leadership to get a real point guard was a smart move. The thing is, this season Kobe was playing about as poorly as Derek Fisher. The Lakers have been winning in spite of their backcourt of Fisher and Kobe. The leadership Fisher provided while he was here and the “winning attitude” Kobe provides don’t really make up for the fact that neither player is that good.

Kobe used to be good

Kobe Bryant Wins Produced for the last five seasons.
Season Rank Pos MP WP48 WP
2007 22 2.0 3140 0.170 11.1
2008 14 2.2 3192 0.194 12.9
2009 14 2.0 2960 0.182 11.2
2010 50 2.3 2835 0.124 7.3
2011 59 2.1 2779 0.128 7.4

Unlike Derek Fisher, Kobe used to be a very good player. In fact, looking back right before the Lakers became relevent again right through last season’s playoff fizzle we can see Kobe was a good player. However, he went from being a top player in the league to being slightly above average. This is because older players age like milk.

The real oddity in all of this is the fact that people still think Kobe is relevent. He’s still on several MVP rankings. The impact of his clutchness is still being discussed. Lost in all of this is that Kobe is playing terribly this season and that’s even using Kobe’s own stats as a barometer. We can use the NBA Geek comparison engine to quickly explain why Kobe is bad: His shooting is average and his turnovers are really high. Let’s look at Kobe’s numbers in relation to his career to help complete the story:

  • Kobe is shooting a 52.6% true shooting percentage. This is the worst of his career behind 2001-2002 (54.3%)
  • Kobe is taking 25.1 true shots per 36 minutes. This is the 2nd most in his career behind 2005-2006 (27.9)
  • Kobe is getting 3.6 turnovers per 36 minutes. This is the 2nd worst of his career behind 1996-1997 (3.7)
  • Kobe is getting 1.2 steals per 36 minutes. This is a career low for him tied with with 2004-2005.
  • Kobe’s 4.4 assists per 36 minutes are the lowest he’s had since 2005-2006.

Kobe is shooting the worst he ever has but is still taking a lot of shots. It turns out Kobe also used to do more than score. However, we can see his steals, turnovers and assists have all been getting worse. This of course leads us to the final most important fact:

  • Kobe is getting 28.3 points per game. This is the fifth highest of his career.

Kobe’s numbers and efficiency have dropped! By keeping his shots up he is keeping his points per game up. It seems this very simple trick has worked. It’s also important that Kobe is also on a winning team. As we’ve pointed out, players that score lots of points but don’t win can be discovered. As long as Bynum, Gasol, Barnes and Sessions keep playing well then Kobe can keep taking lots of shots. And by keeping his scoring totals high people will think he is still a good player, even though he has clearly lost a step. Of course, readers of this blog are different and we’ll simply laugh loudly at anyone that is insane enough to say they’d take Kobe over Dwyane Wade.

-Dre

p.s. As you may have noticed, we’re having a contest to guess which player will have the best game in the remaining games this season. As a fun tidit. Kobe played the single worst game this season on the 1st of January.

 

Fantasy trades starring Steve Nash, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol

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Nothing endures but change -Heraclitus

I admit I have a dirty little secret. In the darkness of the night, in the privacy of my own home, when no one is watching I like to pretend I’m something I’m not.

I like to play act like I’m an NBA GM. I like to play with the cap and fondle the player contracts. I like to properly massage my imaginary NBA rosters until I reach full satisfaction. Thankfully all the tools I need are available on the internet.

Because a trade can change your life

My name is Arturo and I am an NBA Trade Machine addict.

Now don’t be to quick to condemn me because I’m fairly certain you know someone who shares that particular passion. Hell, if you’re reading this website you’re what they would call a high risk.

Admit it, you like playing this game too.

Now, As with all proper games, It is important to set some ground rules. They are quite simple actually.

  1. The trade must work under the current cap rules. Thankfully we have ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine to help us with that.
  2. The trade must be something that could reasonably happen without some sort of a hostage crisis, credible threat of blackmail or Hornets GM David Stern being prominently involved.  Any moron can come up with a trade that works and turns his team into a super team (case in point). It must however be something that does not get you immediately laughed at by any of the teams involved.

Shall we play the trade Game? Your safeword for the day is Pau. We will proceed one theme at a time. For each, I will start slow and build to a climactic finish.

Trade theme: Free Steve Nash

Poor Steve Nash, like Jason Kidd he’s a historic point guard and a true dream date for an NBA fan on game night. Unlike Jason, he has not yet found the place where he can reach the promised land. Let’s see if we can help him get there while at the same time getting the Suns something in return.

Trade #1

Why do the Spurs do this?: Fully embrace the run and gun while clearing the deck for their young guns.
Why do the Suns do this?: Get two viable starters for Nash before he leaves. Do a solid by Steve and give a real chance to win one title
Who does the media think wins this trade? The Suns.
Who actually wins this trade? The Spurs and fans of basketball everywhere. This Spurs team would be a very real threat to win it all.

Trade #2

Why do the Sixers do this?: Go all in to try to win the title this year.
Why do the Suns do this?: Again get two viable cheap young starters for Nash before he leaves. Do a solid by Steve and give a real chance to win one title
Who does the media think wins this trade? The Sixers.
Who actually wins this trade? I’d call this dead even actually. The Sixers are giving up two good cheap pieces here. Their chances of winning the title or even making the finals are not great.

Trade theme: The Lakers lose their mind

Seriously, they’ve gone mental. They signed that ridiculous Kobe extension. They traded the best sixth man in the game (Lamar Odom) for a late first round pick. Not only that they gave him to a hated conference rival. Now they’re looking to give away Pau Gasol their leading win producer and MVP for the length of his stay in Laker Land. Who am I to stand in the way of such inspired lunacy? I believe the german word is schadenfruede.

Trade #1

  • Teams: T-wolves, Lakers
  • Trade:  Lakers trade Gasol/Barnes to the Twolves for Beasley/Webster and Williams
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the T-wolves do this?: You’re kidding right? This instantly makes them a contender.
Why do the Lakers do this?: BWAHAHAHAHAHA. They are dead set on being the second best basketball team in LA for the next five years perhaps? Sorry my Celtic fandom came out.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Minnesota
Who actually wins this trade? Everyone who is not a Lakers fan. Here’s the thing: this trade will not happen. I’m only putting this here because of some of the reporting out there. Any trade between these two teams would involve Gasol and Love as the principals and that is a non-starter. Let’s get some real options on the table.

Trade #2

Why do the Nets do this?: Deron is not staying. They think they can use Pau as a trade chip with the Magic.
Why do the Lakers do this?: Because Zombie Derek Fisher of course.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Lakers
Who actually wins this trade? New Jersey. Particularly because I think this doesn’t happen until after March 1st and multiple other player and picks are involved. That and the fact that if I made a deal with a Russian billionaire i’d expect him to win.

Trade #3

  • Teams: Bulls, Lakers
  • Trade:  Lakers trade Gasol/Barnes to the Bulls for Boozer/CJ Watson and Taj Gibson
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Bulls do this?: They believe Gasol gives them the final piece of the championship puzzle. Barnes is not chump change either.
Why do the Lakers do this?: Not actually a bad trade for them as they get a decent big back for Pau a point guard to takeover from Zombie Derek Fisher and Taj Gibson.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Chicago but it’s close
Who actually wins this trade? I think this is a fairly even trade actually. It helps the Lakers by giving them pieces. For the Bulls it puts them over the top as a championship contender. It makes way too much sense to me so it won’t happen.

Trade theme: The Superman Sweepstakes

You might have not heard but Dwight Howard is leaving Orlando. Some might argue this is not a done deal. I would simply point out that the big man always leaves the small market.

The evidence

Trade #1

  • Teams: Magic, Thunder
  • Trade: Thunder trade Westbrook/Perkins/Mohammed/Sefolosha to the Magic for Howard/Duhon and Smith
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Magic do this?: This is a significant haul for Orlando and would give them a starting Center in Perk as well as a budding if controversial star in Westbrook. Add in the extra pieces and it’s perceived as a good haul.
Why do the Thunder do this?:  This is the Thunder throwing all their chips in the middle of the table and calling all in. Harden, Durant and Dwight is enough to make a championship team.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Thunder.
Who actually wins this trade? This depends on a series of Factors. Can Oklahoma win it all? Could they resign Howard? Who exactly is Russell Westbrook going to be? Is he more Steve Nash or Allen Iverson? Both teams risk in this scenario. The potential gain is great though. Let’s move to more likely options though.

Trade #2

Why do the Magic do this?: This to me is fantastic salve to their fans. They get the highest perceived value player they can possibly get in Griffin and a young Starting Center. It keeps them as a playoff team in the east (which may be damming with faint praise) and gives them hope for the future
Why do the Clipper do this?:  You’re kidding right? If there is any scenario in which you wind up with Chris Paul and Dwight Howard on your team you do it. Throw in a very good and underrated Ryan Anderson and this is the easiest yes so far.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Magic. I’m totally serious.
Who actually wins this trade? The Clippers. It’s not even a question. If I told you twelve months ago one team had a chance to wind up with Paul and Howard you’d have been skeptical. If I said it was the Clippers, I would have been mocked. The Magic look good in this trade in getting an exciting and marketable star in Griffin. The Clippers take out an option on the Western Conference for the next decade

Trade #3

  • Teams: Magic, Knicks
  • Trade:  Knicks trade Melo and Amare to the Magic for Howard/Hedu and Redick
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Magic do this?: If the Magic get this offer a year ago, they do it in a heartbeat I think. Now they would have some reservations. They could sell their fans on this one though.
Why do the Knicks do this?:  Please be serious. A team of Lin,JR, Fields,Tyson,Howard is a scary prospect for the rest of the conference.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Again, twelve months ago I say Magic. Now? The debate leads PTI for a month at least.
Who actually wins this trade? Let’s call this trade the Lin dividend. The Knicks cannot do this trade in a Pre-Linsanity NBA simply because they could not keep Dwight with what would have been assumed to be a bare cupboard. The world has changed. If you are an agent and you care about money, the Knicks are your number #1 choice for your client. Dwight stays and becomes part of the NBA’s world poster team for the next decade. Orlando thinks it does well here but if you are a regular reader you know that scoring is overrated. They would spend the next few years fighting it out for the right to lose in the first round.

Trade #4

  • Teams: Magic, Lakers
  • Trade:  Lakers trade Gasol/Bynum and Barnes to the Magic for Howard/Hedu and Jameer
  • The Stats (courtesy of NBA Geek)

Why do the Magic do this?: If offered, the Lakers’ godfather offer trumps everybody elses. This trade would completely rebuild the Magic and avoid that pesky post losing the franchise player hangover that Cleveland is mired in.
Why do the Lakers do this?:  The Lakers add arguably the best player in the league. They also address their point guard issues and get a serviceable piece in Hedu for the 3 and 4 position.
Who does the media think wins this trade? Lakers
Who actually wins this trade? This is a trade-off. Orlando wins the short term as they get the best possible deal for their departing superstar. Long term, it’s the Lakers as by having Dwight the Lakers remain relevant and are almost assured historically by virtue of having the best big to win a title at some point in his prime. The Lakers are virtually assured of keeping Dwight and can afford to wait for the remaining pieces to walk thru that door. In fact, the only reason I don’t call them a contender right now is that they stupidly gave Odom away. Orlando’s long term prospects are really tied to the health of Bynum. On paper, the Magic would have arguably the best Power Forward and Center in the East.  Throw in Ryan Anderson and the Magic’s prospects are suddenly abundant. Again, this trade makes way too much sense to actually happen.

I hope everyone enjoyed the game. When we do this again, we’ll get a little crazier.

-Arturo

Are the Lakers still contenders?

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The Lakers were blocked on a trade to send them the best player in the league. A backlash from this move was that they lost their second best player for nothing. Now it seems Kobe’s marriage is falling apart and he is also dealing with injuries. The Lakers appear to be in a free fall while another team in Los Angeles looks poised to take the division.

Ty over at Courtside Analyst already did some work on the Odomless Lakers. The good news is Ty projected the Lakers could win 40 games — the equivalent of 50 games in an 82 game season –(Editor’s note: Thanks Mettaworldpeace for the catch!). Ty had a few restrictions on what the Lakers would need to be a 50 win team. Here are the ones that stood out to me.

  1. Health: The Lakers have some great talent. Injuries could hurt it. The Lakers will need Bynum, Kobe, Barnes, McRoberts and Murphy healthy.
  2. Age: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace and Troy Murphy are all over 30. The Lakers will need all of them to avoid the age like milk virus that snaps up so many old players.

Ty projected the Lakers as a 50 win team. None of the last 10 teams that took the finals won fewer than 52 games (and we may argue the 2006 Miami Heat had a little help from the refs). How is it that we think the Lakers can still compete? The answer is the underrated former Pacers and a bit of luck. Here is how the Lakers depth chart using the players best season from the last two years looks. (ordered by skill of player, not neccesarily who will play the most minutes currently looks)

Lakers Depth Charts by Skill (Using last two seasons)

Lakers Point Guard Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2010 Steve Blake LA Clippers-Portland 2159 0.125 5.6
2010 Derek Fisher LA Lakers 2227 0.053 2.5
Lakers Shooting Guard Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2011 Kobe Bryant LA Lakers 2779 0.128 7.4
2011 Jason Kapono Philadelphia 111 -0.115 -0.3
Lakers Small Forward Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2010 Matt Barnes Orlando 2097 0.185 8.1
2010 Metta World Peace LA Lakers 2605 0.117 6.4
2011 Devin Ebanks LA Lakers 118 0.114 0.3
2010 Luke Walton LA Lakers 272 0.047 0.3
Lakers Power Forward Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
2011 Pau Gasol LA Lakers 3037 0.234 14.8
2011 Josh McRoberts Indiana 1597 0.191 6.3
2011 Derrick Caracter LA Lakers 215 -0.057 -0.3
Lakers Center Options
Best Season Name Team(s) MP WP48 Wins
 2011 Andrew Bynum LA. Lakers 1500 0.281 8.8
 2010 Troy Murphy Indiana 2344 0.212 10.4

Luck is needed at the point

At point guard the best the Lakers could hope for is an average performance from Steve Blake and he has declined since 2010. Derek Fisher is done. The Lakers have picked up two rookie point guards. The Lakers are hoping that their old average/below average point guards don’t fall off a cliff or that a rookie steps up. I would not be optimistic about either.

Kobe is really important

It feels weird to say that. Kobe’s production has declined with age. He is still a good player but he is not a great player. However behind him is a terrible Jason Kapono. The Lakers are already spotting teams one position with such a weak selection of point guard. No Kobe means virtually no backcourt.

The Lakers need health, age and no Walton at the small forward

Matt Barnes is quite a good player but had some injury problems last season. World Peace has been average but is declining. The Lakers need Barnes to be healthy or Peace to hold on. Of course if Barnes isn’t healthy and the Lakers rely on Peace it will mean they are average/below average at three positions and that’s if Kobe is healthy and Blake or a rookie plays decently.

Can some combination of Bynum, McRoberts and Murphy replace Odom?

Bynum has never hit 2000 minutes but has played great. Murphy was a top talent a mere two seasons ago. McRoberts played well last season. If some combination of these three players can stay healthy and be productive the Lakers can not only replace Odom’s 10 wins from last season, they may even improve!

Pau Gasol is really important

Pau Gasol has been the best player on the current Lakers that made it to three consecutive title games. He’s really good. He needs to stay healthy, avoid old age and definitely avoid an Odom like situation is the Lakers have any hope of contending.

Summing up

What is boils down to is the Lakers are crossing their fingers that the stars align on every one of their positions. They have a potentially killer front court, a decent set of wings and are still empty at the point guard. That said, it’s entirely possible the Lakers could be contenders this season but it will take a lot of luck.

-Dre